Analysts await signs of a Target turnaround

Brian Cornell took over as Target CEO last summer just days before the company reported grim quarterly numbers, including a 60 percent plunge in profits.

"No one is happy with our current performance," Cornell said in August.

On Wednesday, the Minneapolis-based retail giant releases its first full quarterly returns with Cornell in charge. Analysts who follow the company will look for signs in the data that Target's getting back on track. No one is forecasting miracles.

• Earlier: New Target CEO lays out plan to revive troubled retailer

Wall Street expects Target to report a double digit drop in quarterly profits from the same three months a year ago. Only about a third of the analysts following the company are recommending investors buy Target stock.

Cornell will "probably talk about some initiatives ... bringing some of Target's cheap chic imaging back," said retail consultant Robin Lewis. "But I don't think you're going to see meaningful financial uptick."

Lewis praised Cornell as a smart leader with solid retail experience but added, "Target really dug a hole for themselves and it's going to take a while to get them back."

Much of that hole was dug in Canada where Target has lost more than $1 billion during a bungled entrance into the market, with consumers complaining about empty shelves and high prices. Cornell has said fixing Canada is a top priority and that Target opened too many stores too fast.

Then there's the massive theft of customer payment card numbers that occurred about a year ago. Target says surveys show customers have put concerns about that mess behind them. But the company's struggled to grow sales as money worries keep many consumers from spending on much beyond essentials.

Cornell came to Target from PepsiCo where he oversaw the company's global food business. He also ran Sam's Club, a division of Walmart, so his retail credentials are solid.

Stepping in to Target last summer, he promised to work quickly to understand the retailer, look for opportunities and work with the retailer's leadership team to develop priorities for 2015 and beyond.

He's put his mark on some initiatives. He told the Wall Street Journal in September that a few product categories will get additional investment and attention, including baby products, organic foods and natural cleansers. He also had a hand in the decision to offer free shipping during the holiday shopping season as a way to boost online sales, though it will cut into profits.

Cornell's broader influence may not show for a while yet, said Brian Yarbrough, an analyst who follows the retail industry for the investment firm Edward Jones.

"He can make some small tweaks and changes to maybe hours or something like that. But overall product, most of the ships were on order before Cornell came in the door," Yarbrough said. "Probably heading into spring is when we'll you'll start seeing a little bit more of his ideas."

Retail consultant Carol Spieckerman believes his influence may surface sooner than that.

"He is just beyond the 90-day mark when new leaders have permission, I think, to start making their mark," she said. "I do believe he has started to do that when you look at some of the store closings and the myriad experiments they're conducing this holiday season in the digital space and in their stores."

Cornell, she added, is at the point where he can pick and choose what he takes credit — or blame — for.

"He can ride the fence a little bit and say, 'You know this stuff was in the works before I came.' The stuff that doesn't work," she said. "But this stuff that is starting to gain traction is something he can start to claim credit for."