Minnesota not on track to meet emissions reductions

Minnesota is not on track to meet greenhouse gas emissions reductions aimed at addressing climate change, state officials said Thursday.

The state's Next Generation Energy Act set goals to cut emissions by 30 percent by 2025 and 80 percent by 2050 from 2005 levels. It also requires utilities to produce 25 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2025. But a new analysis shows the state is on track to reduce emissions only by 3 percent by 2030 from 2012 levels, said David Thornton, an assistant commissioner for the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

"The policies in place have made some difference up until now, and the major difference they're going to be making into the future is offsetting the growth that we're going to be seeing," Thornton told a group of policy makers and business representatives during a forum held by the Environmental Initiative.

That means Minnesota needs a variety of new or expanded strategies to reduce emissions, he said.

Between now and February, state agencies led by the Environmental Quality Board will work with a consultant, the Center for Climate Strategies, to analyze current emissions and determine which policy options would give the state the most bang for its buck. Environmental Initiative, a nonprofit group that builds partnerships, will organize meetings for industry, agriculture and other sectors of the economy to provide input.

Ideas like expanding the renewable energy standard, retiring coal plants and planting urban forests will be analyzed based on three criteria: expected emissions reductions, cost and job creation.

So far, it appears an expanded renewable energy law, improving energy efficiency and retiring or repowering at least one of the coal generators at Xcel Energy's Sherburne County Generating Station would give the state the biggest reductions. Thornton said even though the consultants have already come up with some estimates, the process has merely begun. "They can come up with some good ideas but figuring out how to implement them is the big barrier," he said. "That's one of things we're looking for in the next phase of input."

Minnesota is also facing separate proposed federal emissions reductions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Under the proposal, the state would likely have to reduce emissions from power plants by more than a third by 2030. MPCA officials said they think the goal is reachable and will provide more details next month when they submit comments to the EPA.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct that the 3 percent estimated emissions reduction applies to requirements under the state's Next Generation Energy Act, not the proposed EPA rules.