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Kerri Miller and Kelly Gordon

Coming up: Medical modeling — Trying to predict the future of a pandemic

A poster that reads "limit exposure"
A poster that reads "limit exposure" is stapled to a pole on Hennepin Avenue on Saturday, March 28, 2020. Gov. Tim Walz's stay-at-home order began at 11:59 p.m. Friday and will remain in place until April 10.
Christine T. Nguyen | MPR News

Go Deeper.

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It seems optimistic. The latest model from the University of Washington’s School of Medicine has lowered the estimate of Minnesotans who could die from COVID-19 through August from around 2,000 to 632. But at Monday’s briefing, Gov. Tim Walz said he considers that projection “overly optimistic.” Early models produced by the University of Minnesota had a much higher figure: up to 50,000 deaths over the course of 12 months.

Why the discrepancy? What about medical modeling makes this difficult?

Wednesday on MPR News with Kerri Miller, we will take a close look at what medical modeling can tell us — and what it can’t.

Guests:

  • Eva Enns, associate professor at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health

  • Maggie Koerth, senior science writer at FiveThirtyEight

Subscribe to the MPR News with Kerri Miller podcast on: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts , Spotify or RSS