An October weather reality check with Paul Huttner
Fall leaves cover a sidewalk on Summit Avenue in St. Paul on Tuesday.
Sam Stroozas | MPR News
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In the midst of a weather week that will deliver a little bit of everything, MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner delivered an October reality check on what we can expect for the next stretch of fall.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: What the heck happened here? In a blink, we went from summer to fall. In the last 24 hours, we've gone from warmer than normal to cooler than normal. It's Minnesota. Yikes.
Here with the local weather details and more is NPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, how are you?
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. I'm doing great. Thank you. And you know, I love listening to you and Mike. Because I'm thinking, as a member thank you gift, we're going to need the NPR fuzzy jammies here pretty soon. Maybe even with the feet, you know, the way this is going, by Friday morning.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, great. I can hardly wait, with the footies. OK. So that clearly was a cold front that came through, or at least is coming through right now. How much colder the rest of the week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, October reality check for Minnesota. You mentioned 80 yesterday. I think we're going to be down close to the freezing mark in the Twin Cities by Friday morning-- low to mid-30s. So that's, what, almost 50 degrees colder in terms of overall temperature.
And you're feeling it today, those northwest winds gusting 15, 20, 25, around parts of Minnesota. And the wind chill, or apparent temperature, we're going to have to dust that off pretty soon, Cathy. It's going to feel like the 20s and 30s around here later this week.
Here's an interesting thing, though. October already running 5.2 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Seven of the first 11 days, through yesterday, were 70 or warmer. And it looks cold through the weekend, but it's going to warm up again next week, according to the European and American models. 60s, maybe even 70s again, Thursday through next weekend. So we're not done with pleasant autumn weather just yet.
CATHY WURZER: Well, that's nice to know.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: I understand that there are some people who will be seeing some snow showers, perhaps.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, Northern Minnesota, tonight, tomorrow, maybe even into Friday, I think a few scattered snow showers. Might see some minor accumulations. I don't think it'll last or amount to much. But that's not too unusual for Northern Minnesota this time of the year.
CATHY WURZER: Right. While we're talking about moisture, I noted yesterday as I was tromping around, oh, my gosh, in the Twin Cities, just dust, bone dry. So where are we with the drought?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's deepening rapidly. And I mean, the term "flash drought" is something that climatologists have thrown around in the last few years. Our weather patterns, Cathy, they tend to get stuck more often. That could be a symptom of climate change. It's like an on or off switch for the rainfall. We had a wet spring, and then about the 1st of June, it just shut off. We're eight inches down on rainfall since June 1st in the Twin Cities-- more than eight inches now.
And the US Drought Monitor, which comes out again tomorrow, last week came out with the Extreme Drought for the Twin Cities, into Southwest Minnesota. And I'm looking at the forecast here. And I see little significant rainfall in the next one to two weeks. I'm getting a little worried about this before the freeze-up. We need several widespread, significant rainfall events. We need rain, basically, by the inch, around Minnesota. I don't see it happening.
And it's not just here. The Missouri River is in extreme to exceptional drought. That river basin, the Mississippi River, Cathy, there are barges that are stuck now because the water levels are so low downstream. So this is having a wide impact.
CATHY WURZER: I was just out West. Yeah, you're right about the Missouri. The Yellowstone was really low, too. It's kind of crazy to see it.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: I'm going to switch focus here and talk a little bit about the winter outlook. I'm going to go back and talk about winter. What are you seeing in your crystal ball for long-range seasonal forecast predictions?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'm seeing what NOAA is seeing, which is that we're in the rare third winter of a La Nina. They normally only last a year or two. And it's interesting how these teleconnections between the oceans and the atmosphere-- just to remind everybody, La Nina is colder than average water in the tropical Pacific. Well, that changes Jet Stream patterns, and it tends to put Minnesota, the Northern United States, in northwest flow for winter.
So statistically, La Nina winters are colder and usually snowier than average. That colder signal about 70% to 80% of the time. But we're fighting climate change in the long term, which is producing warmer winters in Minnesota. Winters have warmed, on average, five degrees since 1970 in Minnesota. So the NOAA Seasonal Outlooks are saying colder than average December through February.
Equal chances on snow, Cathy. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but I expect a fairly rigorous winter this year.
CATHY WURZER: Let's see, before you go. Climate Cast this week, looks like you're talking about hydrogen and the developing Midwestern Hydrogen Coalition. What's that about?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, several states, including Minnesota, are using some of those funds, those infrastructure funds, to spur the development of clean hydrogen. Now, hydrogen can be used for a lot of different things. It can run automobiles. It can run forklifts and warehouses-- like Amazon. So there's a lot of ways to cut carbon with that. And we'll be talking this week about that on Climate Cast Thursday afternoon.
CATHY WURZER: Thursday afternoon, on All Things Considered, and wherever you get your podcasts, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, absolutely.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, you talk about so many interesting things. I know you're going to be talking about becoming a member here, too, later this afternoon.
PAUL HUTTNER: I am.
CATHY WURZER: OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: I am. And on Friday, too. And I love it that you love the weather, too, and we kind of weather geek together.
CATHY WURZER: Yes, I do so enjoy these conversations. Thank you, my friend.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's NPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
Here with the local weather details and more is NPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, how are you?
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. I'm doing great. Thank you. And you know, I love listening to you and Mike. Because I'm thinking, as a member thank you gift, we're going to need the NPR fuzzy jammies here pretty soon. Maybe even with the feet, you know, the way this is going, by Friday morning.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, great. I can hardly wait, with the footies. OK. So that clearly was a cold front that came through, or at least is coming through right now. How much colder the rest of the week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, October reality check for Minnesota. You mentioned 80 yesterday. I think we're going to be down close to the freezing mark in the Twin Cities by Friday morning-- low to mid-30s. So that's, what, almost 50 degrees colder in terms of overall temperature.
And you're feeling it today, those northwest winds gusting 15, 20, 25, around parts of Minnesota. And the wind chill, or apparent temperature, we're going to have to dust that off pretty soon, Cathy. It's going to feel like the 20s and 30s around here later this week.
Here's an interesting thing, though. October already running 5.2 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Seven of the first 11 days, through yesterday, were 70 or warmer. And it looks cold through the weekend, but it's going to warm up again next week, according to the European and American models. 60s, maybe even 70s again, Thursday through next weekend. So we're not done with pleasant autumn weather just yet.
CATHY WURZER: Well, that's nice to know.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: I understand that there are some people who will be seeing some snow showers, perhaps.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, Northern Minnesota, tonight, tomorrow, maybe even into Friday, I think a few scattered snow showers. Might see some minor accumulations. I don't think it'll last or amount to much. But that's not too unusual for Northern Minnesota this time of the year.
CATHY WURZER: Right. While we're talking about moisture, I noted yesterday as I was tromping around, oh, my gosh, in the Twin Cities, just dust, bone dry. So where are we with the drought?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's deepening rapidly. And I mean, the term "flash drought" is something that climatologists have thrown around in the last few years. Our weather patterns, Cathy, they tend to get stuck more often. That could be a symptom of climate change. It's like an on or off switch for the rainfall. We had a wet spring, and then about the 1st of June, it just shut off. We're eight inches down on rainfall since June 1st in the Twin Cities-- more than eight inches now.
And the US Drought Monitor, which comes out again tomorrow, last week came out with the Extreme Drought for the Twin Cities, into Southwest Minnesota. And I'm looking at the forecast here. And I see little significant rainfall in the next one to two weeks. I'm getting a little worried about this before the freeze-up. We need several widespread, significant rainfall events. We need rain, basically, by the inch, around Minnesota. I don't see it happening.
And it's not just here. The Missouri River is in extreme to exceptional drought. That river basin, the Mississippi River, Cathy, there are barges that are stuck now because the water levels are so low downstream. So this is having a wide impact.
CATHY WURZER: I was just out West. Yeah, you're right about the Missouri. The Yellowstone was really low, too. It's kind of crazy to see it.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY WURZER: I'm going to switch focus here and talk a little bit about the winter outlook. I'm going to go back and talk about winter. What are you seeing in your crystal ball for long-range seasonal forecast predictions?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'm seeing what NOAA is seeing, which is that we're in the rare third winter of a La Nina. They normally only last a year or two. And it's interesting how these teleconnections between the oceans and the atmosphere-- just to remind everybody, La Nina is colder than average water in the tropical Pacific. Well, that changes Jet Stream patterns, and it tends to put Minnesota, the Northern United States, in northwest flow for winter.
So statistically, La Nina winters are colder and usually snowier than average. That colder signal about 70% to 80% of the time. But we're fighting climate change in the long term, which is producing warmer winters in Minnesota. Winters have warmed, on average, five degrees since 1970 in Minnesota. So the NOAA Seasonal Outlooks are saying colder than average December through February.
Equal chances on snow, Cathy. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but I expect a fairly rigorous winter this year.
CATHY WURZER: Let's see, before you go. Climate Cast this week, looks like you're talking about hydrogen and the developing Midwestern Hydrogen Coalition. What's that about?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, several states, including Minnesota, are using some of those funds, those infrastructure funds, to spur the development of clean hydrogen. Now, hydrogen can be used for a lot of different things. It can run automobiles. It can run forklifts and warehouses-- like Amazon. So there's a lot of ways to cut carbon with that. And we'll be talking this week about that on Climate Cast Thursday afternoon.
CATHY WURZER: Thursday afternoon, on All Things Considered, and wherever you get your podcasts, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, absolutely.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, you talk about so many interesting things. I know you're going to be talking about becoming a member here, too, later this afternoon.
PAUL HUTTNER: I am.
CATHY WURZER: OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: I am. And on Friday, too. And I love it that you love the weather, too, and we kind of weather geek together.
CATHY WURZER: Yes, I do so enjoy these conversations. Thank you, my friend.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's NPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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