Minnesotan in Ukraine: Attacks continue as country braces for winter

[MUSIC PLAYING] INTERVIEWER: Our top story is an international one. Russian troops have pulled out of the important strategic city of Kherson in Eastern Ukraine. It comes in the wake of continuing gains by Ukrainian troops on the battlefield amid threats of nuclear attacks, specifically the use of so-called dirty bombs. We've been checking in regularly with a Minnesotan in Ukraine about such developments. And our reporter Tim Nelson's been in touch with his long time friend and colleague Brian Bonner. Brian's a former journalist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and the former editor of the Kyiv Post, Ukraine's Premier English language newspaper. Here's Brian and Tim.

TIM NELSON: Brian is a South Dakota native, went to the U of M. And we worked for years together at the St. Paul Pioneer Press. We've kept in touch since the war in Ukraine started. Now, he's back in Ukraine, monitoring developments amid drone attacks and blackouts. Brian, Cathy, talked about this Russian retreat. I understand troops moved across the Dnieper River. It sounds sort of retreating from St. Paul to Minneapolis. How much breathing room does Kherson actually have right now?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, they moved forward or push Russia back to the East Bank. But it wasn't just the capital-- the regional capital of Kherson, which was the only capital Russia has managed to take since the start of the war. It was about 150 miles wide along the river if you look at the map. So this pushes the front line forward.

And if you look at all the bridges and crossing points, like between Minneapolis and St. Paul, that would be knocked off. It does present quite a barrier on both sides. So yes, it doesn't end the war. They're already shooting at each other back and forth. It's just moves the front line closer in Ukraine's direction favorably.

Because after this, now, as it stands, Ukraine has taken back more than half the territory Russia seized since February. So that still leaves Russia with about 15% of Ukraine's territory. But that's way down from 22% or more the height of the Russian invasion. So people are very hopeful.

But the one thing about the retreat is it looked like it was pretty orderly. It looked like there were not massive casualties. And that gets to Ukrainians complaints that they are not being given the proper weapons to do what the military analysts call combined arms operations, which is to attack the retreating forces with everything they have, tanks, helicopters, fighter jets, long range artillery, and really push them back.

TIM NELSON: Now, in the meantime, there's been discussions of a threat of a dirty bomb, which the West has suggested would be a false flag attack by Russia. CIA Director Bill Burns is talking with his Russian counterpart in Turkey today. Does this indicate that this is an ongoing or a growing threat? I mean, what's the feeling in Ukraine about this?

BRIAN BONNER: I think it's becoming less of a threat. When you look at the diplomatic moves underway to tell Russia to knock it off, stop talking about it, you're not going to use it. And that's coming from China. President Xi and Biden emphasized that again today. The Chinese President emphasized it with his meeting with German Chancellor Scholz last week.

If they use any dirty bomb or any nuclear bomb, Russia will have no friends left except for the very few friends they have now, North Korea maybe, Iran, and Belarus, I think it's going down. I think everybody sees Vladimir Putin as bluffing. And that's a good thing. Because if he loses the support of China, he has no chance.

TIM NELSON: In the meantime, we've had an election here. There's still a lot of talk about it. Abortion rights, inflation figured largely in the voting. But there was also some suggestion from possibly House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that there may be a change in posture toward Ukraine with Republicans in charge, that there won't be what he called a blank check for Ukrainian aid anymore.

There's also been these reports that the Biden administration may be pushing Ukraine to start peace talks. Is Ukraine afraid of the US getting cold feet post midterms and in the face of a volatile presidential race? I mean, possibly including Donald Trump jumping in as soon as tomorrow?

BRIAN BONNER: Everybody was nervous, certainly. I mean, looking at Trump's record in terms of lack of support for Ukraine and a lot of support for Vladimir Putin. And when you have McCarthy who bows down to Trump, talking about no blank checks, and Marjorie Taylor Greene saying no more aid to Ukraine, everybody was worried.

Biden even made was proud of the fact that of all the things that he hasn't given Ukraine that Ukraine needs, which is kind of strange and proves the point that the West is just giving Ukraine enough, being very reactive. And by reactive, I mean, when Russia hits with missiles, then the West supplies air defenses. It's just enough to keep Ukraine defended but not enough to drive Russia out.

I think there's hope that the lame Duck Congress is going to pass a legislation to finance Ukraine for the entire 2023 year. But still with the makeup, as evenly split, there's a lot of confidence that because support for Ukraine has been bipartisan that there will be enough Reagan hawk Republicans and enough mainstream Democrats to keep support for Ukraine strong.

Ukraine needs a lot. It needs at least $3 billion a month. The plan is half of it will come from the European Union. And the other half will come from America. And that doesn't include the military assistance. That is just to keep Ukraine going, keeping the lights on, keeping Ukraine's pensions paid, keeping Ukraine surviving.

TIM NELSON: Obviously, a lot of other good news there. There's this retreat from Kherson. The Russians threatened grain exports recently only to have their bluff called by Turkey and rejoin the agreement for safe shipping recently. Russia's reportedly buying ammunition from North Korea. I mean, these aren't signs of success. At what point do Russian nationalists tell Putin he's failed or might there be a military push to stop the bleeding?

BRIAN BONNER: You have to go back to-- I liken it to the collapse of the Soviet Union. How many people saw it coming? Not many, it seems. But the signs were there. And the signs of Putin's weakening in power is there. Russia state TV is just beside themselves.

The propagandists with how bad the war is going, blaming people. So far, Putin has remained a bit above the fray. I don't know how long that's going to last. But he's demolished any opposition, or any institutions, or any critical political voices to him. So it might last still a while. But clearly, Russia knows, anybody who's thinking he knows that the war is going very badly. And people are opening up starting to criticize the leadership, Vladimir Putin.

TIM NELSON: So you mentioned, though, Europe before, half of the aid coming from the US, half coming from Europe. I'm thinking back now. It's snowing. It's getting cold here in Minnesota. It's got to be getting that way in Europe. I'm thinking about those pictures of the undersea Nord Stream pipeline explosions in September. There have been reports of European manufacturing cutbacks to conserve gas for residential use. Ukraine may be very enthusiastic. But can Europe stand by Ukraine without Russian gas this winter? I mean, how much of a test is this winter going to be?

BRIAN BONNER: It's the big test. And Europe is going to pass it. And Ukraine is going to pass it. And then Russia will not be able to use the energy blackmail again. And they've lost their best customers. And they've lost them probably forever. Already, the news is great. I mean, Europe has topped up their storage to 95%. Ukraine has $15 billion cubic meters, which is more than enough to get through the winter.

TIM NELSON: Well, we have seen these reports of attacks on utilities across Ukraine, particularly in response to the Crimea bridge explosion a month ago. I mean, what's life like in the rest of Ukraine under these attacks? You said heating season hasn't started yet, but how are you doing?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, it's tough. I'm very fortunate. I mean, I'm in the center of the city. And I think we have a better situation because I'm near key infrastructure. So I have had the lights. I've had the water, had the electricity, except for very brief outages. But throughout the rest of the country, this is true.

40% of the energy infrastructure is damaged. Putin is not through yet. He wants to leave us, people in Ukraine freezing in the dark in winter without water. And that will be a huge catastrophe. And so we have rolling blackouts, not good for business. We have scheduled blackouts.

And this is taking a toll. There is a bit of a new wave of refugees. I think the numbers will show that soon. Anecdotally, I have friends who left because they don't have any utilities in their homes. Tired of the war. It gets harder to survive during the winter.

And the war is just hitting closer to home. I came home October 30. I live within easy walking distance of the railway station. And so I walked past one home that got bombed on a few Mondays ago. Among the victims was a pregnant woman and her husband in bed, just bombed in bed, took out top half of five storey building. I tell you, I mean, that's the damage. And the fighting is very intense in the East. The death toll is well, not precise. On both sides, it does look to be quite high and getting up to 100,000 on each side.

TIM NELSON: Well, Brian we wish you well and hope you stay safe and warm there in Ukraine as this conflict drags on. We hope for the best for you and really all the people of Ukraine.

BRIAN BONNER: Good talking to you, and thanks for your time.

INTERVIEWER: That was our Tim Nelson talking with Brian Bonner, a former journalist at the St. Paul Pioneer Press, former editor of the Kyiv Post, Ukraine's Premier English language newspaper.