After winter storm, Fargo and Moorhead could be in for challenging flooding season
Floodwaters consumed much of the Red River Valley in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota on April 11, 2011. This photograph features an extensive sandbag dike, which is the white band visible between the water and homes.
MPR Photo/Ann Arbor Miller
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North Dakota Department of Transportation plows are out today, trying to clear parts of I-94 that have been clogged with snow since Tuesday west of Fargo, N.D. The Fargo-Moorhead area and parts of northern Minnesota are also digging out after yet another snow and ice storm.
As much as a foot was added to an already hefty snowpack that remains, and it's loaded with moisture. Next week, sandbagging efforts will start in Fargo to prepare for high water on the Red River.
Amanda Lee is a hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Grand Forks. She talked with host Cathy Wurzer to give us a picture of what to expect as the snow melts.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: North Dakota Department of Transportation plows are out today, trying to clear parts of I-94 that have been clogged with snow since Tuesday, west of Fargo. The Fargo-Moorhead area and parts of Northern Minnesota are also digging out after yet another snow and ice storm. As much as a foot was added to an already hefty snowpack that remains, and it is loaded with moisture. Next week, sandbagging efforts will start in Fargo to prepare for high water on the Red River.
Amanda Lee is a hydrologist for the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks. She's on the phone to give us a picture of what to expect as the snow melts. Hey, Amanda.
AMANDA LEE: Hi. How are you folks?
CATHY WURZER: Good. Thanks for joining us. We appreciate your time. So talk to us a little bit about the flood risk this year for Fargo and Moorhead. And also, throw Grand Forks in there too.
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Like you mentioned, things have been heating up here relatively with the snow, increase in snowpack that we've seen in the last few days. And then temperatures should be warming up here, getting into this Easter weekend and next week. And that'll really start getting some of the snowpack to finally disappear from the landscape and get some water moving into the river system. So we are looking at kicking things off pretty quickly next week with a rise in temperatures and river levels to subsequently start rising due to that.
CATHY WURZER: How much of a snowpack did you have before this last storm?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Kind of up and down the Red River Basin, for the most part, on average, probably about 15 to 20 inches or so. Definitely more snow down in the southern portion of the basin, so kind of that Wahpeton and Fargo and even up to Grand Forks area.
Further north, up near the international border, not quite as much. They were sitting at maybe 8 to 10. But the storm came through in the last couple days and dumped a good swath of up to 12 inches across a good portion of the basin. So right now, here in Grand Forks, we're sitting at 25 inches on the ground, which is a record high of snow depth for this date, this late in the season.
CATHY WURZER: And as I mentioned, it's moisture-laden.
AMANDA LEE: Yup. Definitely. We're looking at most places, 5 to 6 inches of water in that snowpack, especially from the southern portion of the basin, up through the central. Like I said, up near the international border is quite a bit less. They haven't had quite as much snowfall. But for the headwaters of the Red River, an area such as that, definitely looking at quite a bit of water that's got to melt out and make its way to the river system.
CATHY WURZER: And how much of it-- when you look at flood risk here, do you look at the moisture content of the snowpack versus just how fast it might melt?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Those are both definitely factors. Obviously, the more moisture you have in the snow, you start to get a little more worried. It's got to go somewhere. So it'll depend on how quickly things melt and also how dry your ground was when things started freezing up.
So we were fairly dry last fall. Not a lot of precipitation. So when things started freezing up there, it was quite dry. So there is a little bit of room, once we start thawing out, for that meltwater to make its way into the top portion of the soil. But with that said, obviously, some of it's frozen, at least a little bit.
And so it depends on how quickly that'll melt. If it happens very quickly and doesn't get enough time to penetrate into the soils, then it'll directly run off towards the rivers. So the timing, how long it takes to melt things will definitely be a factor. And then the biggest factor as we move forward here, which is also the biggest question mark, is, what is precipitation going to look like in the next week, two, three weeks from now?
CATHY WURZER: Because you don't want to add to the potential mess, obviously. And we should also say to folks who are not familiar with your neck of the woods, you're pretty flat up there. So I mean, once the snow starts to melt, it just kind of goes-- it kind of spreads out all over the place if there is a flood.
AMANDA LEE: Definitely. Yep. Every spring, we have at least some level of-- some sort of flooding, for the most part. And like you said, the snow will melt. And it doesn't really have anywhere to go. So it can go into the ground or gradually make its way to the river system. But it takes its time if there's too much water, and it doesn't flow very quickly anywhere because the ground is so flat. But it eventually makes its way to the river system.
But we have a lot of overland flooding, too, while we've got river flooding to deal with. So lots of flooded fields and probably roadways and things like that. So it definitely encompasses and impacts the entire region, even if you're not directly impacted by the river itself.
CATHY WURZER: Mayor of Fargo said Monday that the Fargo-Moorhead area could be facing a top 10 flood. 2011 was a big flood year, if I remember. Can you take us back to the conditions that caused that flood?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. 2009, '10, and '11 were all pretty wet years, which contributed to decent floods all those years also. And just kind of the right conditions led to that flood and the prior floods.
The good news is since then, in the last 10, 12 years, there's been a lot of mitigation efforts up and down the valley since then. So even if we were to get close to any kind of river levels seen back then, the mitigation that's been done, especially in the Fargo-Moorhead area, would help mitigate some of those impacts at least. So that is the good news.
They're working on filling sandbags and such. But the comparison from what number of sandbags they needed back then compared to what they would now at the same river level is quite different. So that's good news. There's been a lot of work done that's been really beneficial.
CATHY WURZER: Interesting. So I mentioned the Minnesota, the Mississippi, St. Croix River's already rising. And they are expected to flood in coming weeks at Stillwater and Saint Paul, as an example. What timeline do you have? You mentioned that sandbagging efforts will start next week. I know you all are looking at river levels probably almost every few days, right? So do you have a timeline as to when we might see some water rise in your area?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Yeah, we definitely have been-- we'll be keeping an eye on the river gauges here in the coming days. The next couple days probably won't see a lot of things moving. We're still pretty cold this morning. And we're probably going to get pretty cold again tonight. But then we've got the warm-up coming up this weekend and then into next week. So we'll have those snowpacks start melting and things start thawing out a little bit.
So we'll be watching, especially down in the southern portion of the basin, into West Central Minnesota, to watch and see when those river gauges will start responding to that water. And then once that happens, probably early to mid next week is our best guess at this time, then we'll start issuing our actual river forecasts. That'll forecast river levels for the next week and give us an idea of when things could be getting above flood stage and getting a better idea of when things could crest and things like that. So definitely keeping an eye on them late this weekend into early next week for things to start moving, especially in southern portions of the basin.
CATHY WURZER: Flood forecasts are an art. You've got a tough job, Amanda.
AMANDA LEE: It can be challenging. And I just-- I keep harping that what happens precipitation-wise and temperature-wise this time of year is a wild card and always will be. You can talk about having a dry fall and a snowpack above normal for the winter. And all of that doesn't really matter. It just kind of depends on what's going to happen in March and April.
And right now, we're so late into the year, we've been delaying this melt and delaying this melt constantly. So when we do that, the probability is higher. The chances are higher of us flipping the switch and warming up quickly and then possibly getting precipitation more as rain rather than snow.
If we start melting mid-March or so, chances of any weather systems that move through to be snow are pretty high at that point. But as we get into mid-April, the chance of snow is probably less than chance of rain. So that's also a factor that's going to play into things that we just quite don't have the answers to yet.
CATHY WURZER: All right, Amanda Lee, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much, and good luck.
AMANDA LEE: No problem. Thank you.
CATHY WURZER: Amanda Lee is a hydrologist for the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks.
Amanda Lee is a hydrologist for the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks. She's on the phone to give us a picture of what to expect as the snow melts. Hey, Amanda.
AMANDA LEE: Hi. How are you folks?
CATHY WURZER: Good. Thanks for joining us. We appreciate your time. So talk to us a little bit about the flood risk this year for Fargo and Moorhead. And also, throw Grand Forks in there too.
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Like you mentioned, things have been heating up here relatively with the snow, increase in snowpack that we've seen in the last few days. And then temperatures should be warming up here, getting into this Easter weekend and next week. And that'll really start getting some of the snowpack to finally disappear from the landscape and get some water moving into the river system. So we are looking at kicking things off pretty quickly next week with a rise in temperatures and river levels to subsequently start rising due to that.
CATHY WURZER: How much of a snowpack did you have before this last storm?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Kind of up and down the Red River Basin, for the most part, on average, probably about 15 to 20 inches or so. Definitely more snow down in the southern portion of the basin, so kind of that Wahpeton and Fargo and even up to Grand Forks area.
Further north, up near the international border, not quite as much. They were sitting at maybe 8 to 10. But the storm came through in the last couple days and dumped a good swath of up to 12 inches across a good portion of the basin. So right now, here in Grand Forks, we're sitting at 25 inches on the ground, which is a record high of snow depth for this date, this late in the season.
CATHY WURZER: And as I mentioned, it's moisture-laden.
AMANDA LEE: Yup. Definitely. We're looking at most places, 5 to 6 inches of water in that snowpack, especially from the southern portion of the basin, up through the central. Like I said, up near the international border is quite a bit less. They haven't had quite as much snowfall. But for the headwaters of the Red River, an area such as that, definitely looking at quite a bit of water that's got to melt out and make its way to the river system.
CATHY WURZER: And how much of it-- when you look at flood risk here, do you look at the moisture content of the snowpack versus just how fast it might melt?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Those are both definitely factors. Obviously, the more moisture you have in the snow, you start to get a little more worried. It's got to go somewhere. So it'll depend on how quickly things melt and also how dry your ground was when things started freezing up.
So we were fairly dry last fall. Not a lot of precipitation. So when things started freezing up there, it was quite dry. So there is a little bit of room, once we start thawing out, for that meltwater to make its way into the top portion of the soil. But with that said, obviously, some of it's frozen, at least a little bit.
And so it depends on how quickly that'll melt. If it happens very quickly and doesn't get enough time to penetrate into the soils, then it'll directly run off towards the rivers. So the timing, how long it takes to melt things will definitely be a factor. And then the biggest factor as we move forward here, which is also the biggest question mark, is, what is precipitation going to look like in the next week, two, three weeks from now?
CATHY WURZER: Because you don't want to add to the potential mess, obviously. And we should also say to folks who are not familiar with your neck of the woods, you're pretty flat up there. So I mean, once the snow starts to melt, it just kind of goes-- it kind of spreads out all over the place if there is a flood.
AMANDA LEE: Definitely. Yep. Every spring, we have at least some level of-- some sort of flooding, for the most part. And like you said, the snow will melt. And it doesn't really have anywhere to go. So it can go into the ground or gradually make its way to the river system. But it takes its time if there's too much water, and it doesn't flow very quickly anywhere because the ground is so flat. But it eventually makes its way to the river system.
But we have a lot of overland flooding, too, while we've got river flooding to deal with. So lots of flooded fields and probably roadways and things like that. So it definitely encompasses and impacts the entire region, even if you're not directly impacted by the river itself.
CATHY WURZER: Mayor of Fargo said Monday that the Fargo-Moorhead area could be facing a top 10 flood. 2011 was a big flood year, if I remember. Can you take us back to the conditions that caused that flood?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. 2009, '10, and '11 were all pretty wet years, which contributed to decent floods all those years also. And just kind of the right conditions led to that flood and the prior floods.
The good news is since then, in the last 10, 12 years, there's been a lot of mitigation efforts up and down the valley since then. So even if we were to get close to any kind of river levels seen back then, the mitigation that's been done, especially in the Fargo-Moorhead area, would help mitigate some of those impacts at least. So that is the good news.
They're working on filling sandbags and such. But the comparison from what number of sandbags they needed back then compared to what they would now at the same river level is quite different. So that's good news. There's been a lot of work done that's been really beneficial.
CATHY WURZER: Interesting. So I mentioned the Minnesota, the Mississippi, St. Croix River's already rising. And they are expected to flood in coming weeks at Stillwater and Saint Paul, as an example. What timeline do you have? You mentioned that sandbagging efforts will start next week. I know you all are looking at river levels probably almost every few days, right? So do you have a timeline as to when we might see some water rise in your area?
AMANDA LEE: Sure. Yeah, we definitely have been-- we'll be keeping an eye on the river gauges here in the coming days. The next couple days probably won't see a lot of things moving. We're still pretty cold this morning. And we're probably going to get pretty cold again tonight. But then we've got the warm-up coming up this weekend and then into next week. So we'll have those snowpacks start melting and things start thawing out a little bit.
So we'll be watching, especially down in the southern portion of the basin, into West Central Minnesota, to watch and see when those river gauges will start responding to that water. And then once that happens, probably early to mid next week is our best guess at this time, then we'll start issuing our actual river forecasts. That'll forecast river levels for the next week and give us an idea of when things could be getting above flood stage and getting a better idea of when things could crest and things like that. So definitely keeping an eye on them late this weekend into early next week for things to start moving, especially in southern portions of the basin.
CATHY WURZER: Flood forecasts are an art. You've got a tough job, Amanda.
AMANDA LEE: It can be challenging. And I just-- I keep harping that what happens precipitation-wise and temperature-wise this time of year is a wild card and always will be. You can talk about having a dry fall and a snowpack above normal for the winter. And all of that doesn't really matter. It just kind of depends on what's going to happen in March and April.
And right now, we're so late into the year, we've been delaying this melt and delaying this melt constantly. So when we do that, the probability is higher. The chances are higher of us flipping the switch and warming up quickly and then possibly getting precipitation more as rain rather than snow.
If we start melting mid-March or so, chances of any weather systems that move through to be snow are pretty high at that point. But as we get into mid-April, the chance of snow is probably less than chance of rain. So that's also a factor that's going to play into things that we just quite don't have the answers to yet.
CATHY WURZER: All right, Amanda Lee, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much, and good luck.
AMANDA LEE: No problem. Thank you.
CATHY WURZER: Amanda Lee is a hydrologist for the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks.
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