More spring rain, thunder and snow on the horizon in Minnesota
The St. Croix River water reaches almost full coverage of the Stillwater Lift Bridge, as seen in this photo taken on Tuesday in Stillwater, Minn. The rising waters have reached their maximum level and pose a potential threat of flooding to the area.
Kerem Yücel | MPR News
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Last week's shock of warm temperatures aside, it feels like almost every week on Minnesota Now — when we talk to MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner lately — we’re talking about the next storm rolling in.
That’s the case Wednesday, with both rain and snow in the forecast across the state. Paul Huttner joined MPR News guest host Emily Bright to talk about the latest timing, rain totals, and thunder predictions for the next storm. They also talked about the flood forecast and severe weather awareness week.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
EMILY BRIGHT: So last week's shock of warm temperatures aside, it feels like almost every week when we talk to NPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner lately, we're talking about the next storm rolling in. And that's the case today with both rain and snow in the forecast across the state. Paul Huttner is with me now. Paul, what's the latest on this storm?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'm counting storms through the winter, Emily. You know, I went back to December 1 and looked at the records. And this is the 16th storm in 19 weeks that we've had in Minnesota, either rain or snow. Mostly snow, of course, right? That's why we had 90 inches this season in the Twin Cities and 130 up in Duluth.
And this one is kind of a two-part system again. We had wave one come through this morning with the rain, a little bit of thunder in southern Minnesota, a little bit of snow up north still up around Baudette, over to International Falls. That produced 3/10 of an inch of rain at Twin Cities Airport.
But the stronger part of the storm, we're getting a break now around most of Minnesota, comes in later tonight and Thursday, even into Friday up north. It'll be rain in the Twin Cities. We can count our blessings for that. But it will be mostly snow, sorry, northern Minnesota. Basically, Fargo, Brainerd, to Duluth. North of that line is where we're going to see most of the snow. We'll have some rain and thunder potential again in the Twin Cities later this evening overnight tonight into tomorrow morning and snow up north.
Winter storm watches, Thief River Falls, Bemidji, Roseau, Baudette, International Falls. That's the area that I think will see anywhere from 4 to maybe as much as 12 to 15 inches of snow with this system.
EMILY BRIGHT: Oh, my.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I know. And there will be glaze ice. The North Shore, northeast Minnesota, you'll get more like 1 to 5 inches of snow along the North Shore. And here in the Twin Cities, it could come down steady for a while. We may get, by the time this is done, another inch of rain for many locations, central, eastern Minnesota. Maybe as much as two in some spots, Emily. So here we go again. And of course, we don't need all that rain on top of these rising rivers.
EMILY BRIGHT: Yeah, let's talk about that flood forecast.
PAUL HUTTNER: So here's the thing. I checked three major systems that we watch, the Saint Croix River in Stillwater. It's at 88.97 feet. I know that doesn't mean a lot, but forecast to go 89.5 feet. That would be the seventh highest crest on the Saint Croix at Stillwater and the highest in 22 years, since 2001. So that gives you an idea of how severe the flooding is.
The Mississippi at Saint Paul-- maybe some of you that live in Saint Paul have seen the pictures, some of the access roads underwater. There it's come up 5 feet since Friday. It's forecast to rise another 3 feet by next Monday or Tuesday. That would be the 13th highest crest on the Mississippi at Saint Paul, the highest in 12 years.
And then the Red River at Fargo-- it's forecast to come up another 7 feet by the weekend. That would be the 13th highest crest and the highest in four years, since 2019.
So all of that snowmelt, all the major river systems rising. Many of them look like they're headed for a crest here in the next several days, Emily.
EMILY BRIGHT: Well, I know Americans love to break records, but I think we're breaking too many weather records, I have to say. Let's look at the weekend. What's the forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So again, this storm through Thursday, kind of blustery, some occasional rain south, snow north. We're in the 40s, basically, right through the weekend, Emily. The weekend looks drier. Friday, Saturday, a few snow showers. It'll be windy and blustery. Sunday, a little quieter. 45, partly cloudy skies.
I don't see a huge warm up in sight, but we do get back into the 50s next week. Some of the models hinting at perhaps 60 degrees by next Wednesday. That's the best we can do right now.
EMILY BRIGHT: OK. Now, I understand this is Severe Weather Awareness Week. Tell us more.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is. And the tornado drill, the state statewide tornado drill, will happen Thursday. So when you hear those sirens go off at 1:45 and 6:45 PM in most communities, just a reminder, where are you going to be? What are you going to do when those warnings start flying later this spring?
And just a reminder, those sirens are built for outdoor warning systems, so have multiple safety nets. Your phone, of course, news outlets like MPR News. We'll get you those warnings, too.
Interesting to note, Emily. Overall, when you talk about climate and severe weather, it's pretty inconclusive as far as severe weather and tornadoes. But it looks like it may be stretching the season in Minnesota. The tornado number's coming up a little bit. But you know, typically, we had tornadoes March to November. November 15 was the latest until a couple of years ago. December 15, 2021.
EMILY BRIGHT: I remember.
PAUL HUTTNER: You may remember that outbreak. That was a month later. So you add more water vapor. We're also getting more extensive rainfall, these mega rains. 1,000 square miles of 6 inches or more. 11 of those 16 events have occurred since 2000.
So it's not a huge data set, Emily, with severe weather, but there maybe are just a few trends saying we're extending our severe weather season in Minnesota, and we're getting more of these big rainfall events.
EMILY BRIGHT: OK. Well, I always appreciate your Climate Cast that you do on Thursdays. What's coming up this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, there's some interesting research going on at the Argonne National Lab. That's in Illinois, outside of Chicago. They've developed a dime-sized battery that could be the next step to, like, a 1,000 mile EV range. Now, there a ways from this, but it's really shown some promise. And we're going to talk to one of the researchers about that progress and what it might mean for EV battery range going forward. That's on Climate Cast, of course, tomorrow between 3:00 and 6:00 PM on All Things Considered.
EMILY BRIGHT: Well, that's just the coolest thing. I'm going to have to listen. Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks so much for your time.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Emily. Have a great day.
EMILY BRIGHT: You, too. And again, that was MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'm counting storms through the winter, Emily. You know, I went back to December 1 and looked at the records. And this is the 16th storm in 19 weeks that we've had in Minnesota, either rain or snow. Mostly snow, of course, right? That's why we had 90 inches this season in the Twin Cities and 130 up in Duluth.
And this one is kind of a two-part system again. We had wave one come through this morning with the rain, a little bit of thunder in southern Minnesota, a little bit of snow up north still up around Baudette, over to International Falls. That produced 3/10 of an inch of rain at Twin Cities Airport.
But the stronger part of the storm, we're getting a break now around most of Minnesota, comes in later tonight and Thursday, even into Friday up north. It'll be rain in the Twin Cities. We can count our blessings for that. But it will be mostly snow, sorry, northern Minnesota. Basically, Fargo, Brainerd, to Duluth. North of that line is where we're going to see most of the snow. We'll have some rain and thunder potential again in the Twin Cities later this evening overnight tonight into tomorrow morning and snow up north.
Winter storm watches, Thief River Falls, Bemidji, Roseau, Baudette, International Falls. That's the area that I think will see anywhere from 4 to maybe as much as 12 to 15 inches of snow with this system.
EMILY BRIGHT: Oh, my.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I know. And there will be glaze ice. The North Shore, northeast Minnesota, you'll get more like 1 to 5 inches of snow along the North Shore. And here in the Twin Cities, it could come down steady for a while. We may get, by the time this is done, another inch of rain for many locations, central, eastern Minnesota. Maybe as much as two in some spots, Emily. So here we go again. And of course, we don't need all that rain on top of these rising rivers.
EMILY BRIGHT: Yeah, let's talk about that flood forecast.
PAUL HUTTNER: So here's the thing. I checked three major systems that we watch, the Saint Croix River in Stillwater. It's at 88.97 feet. I know that doesn't mean a lot, but forecast to go 89.5 feet. That would be the seventh highest crest on the Saint Croix at Stillwater and the highest in 22 years, since 2001. So that gives you an idea of how severe the flooding is.
The Mississippi at Saint Paul-- maybe some of you that live in Saint Paul have seen the pictures, some of the access roads underwater. There it's come up 5 feet since Friday. It's forecast to rise another 3 feet by next Monday or Tuesday. That would be the 13th highest crest on the Mississippi at Saint Paul, the highest in 12 years.
And then the Red River at Fargo-- it's forecast to come up another 7 feet by the weekend. That would be the 13th highest crest and the highest in four years, since 2019.
So all of that snowmelt, all the major river systems rising. Many of them look like they're headed for a crest here in the next several days, Emily.
EMILY BRIGHT: Well, I know Americans love to break records, but I think we're breaking too many weather records, I have to say. Let's look at the weekend. What's the forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So again, this storm through Thursday, kind of blustery, some occasional rain south, snow north. We're in the 40s, basically, right through the weekend, Emily. The weekend looks drier. Friday, Saturday, a few snow showers. It'll be windy and blustery. Sunday, a little quieter. 45, partly cloudy skies.
I don't see a huge warm up in sight, but we do get back into the 50s next week. Some of the models hinting at perhaps 60 degrees by next Wednesday. That's the best we can do right now.
EMILY BRIGHT: OK. Now, I understand this is Severe Weather Awareness Week. Tell us more.
PAUL HUTTNER: It is. And the tornado drill, the state statewide tornado drill, will happen Thursday. So when you hear those sirens go off at 1:45 and 6:45 PM in most communities, just a reminder, where are you going to be? What are you going to do when those warnings start flying later this spring?
And just a reminder, those sirens are built for outdoor warning systems, so have multiple safety nets. Your phone, of course, news outlets like MPR News. We'll get you those warnings, too.
Interesting to note, Emily. Overall, when you talk about climate and severe weather, it's pretty inconclusive as far as severe weather and tornadoes. But it looks like it may be stretching the season in Minnesota. The tornado number's coming up a little bit. But you know, typically, we had tornadoes March to November. November 15 was the latest until a couple of years ago. December 15, 2021.
EMILY BRIGHT: I remember.
PAUL HUTTNER: You may remember that outbreak. That was a month later. So you add more water vapor. We're also getting more extensive rainfall, these mega rains. 1,000 square miles of 6 inches or more. 11 of those 16 events have occurred since 2000.
So it's not a huge data set, Emily, with severe weather, but there maybe are just a few trends saying we're extending our severe weather season in Minnesota, and we're getting more of these big rainfall events.
EMILY BRIGHT: OK. Well, I always appreciate your Climate Cast that you do on Thursdays. What's coming up this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, there's some interesting research going on at the Argonne National Lab. That's in Illinois, outside of Chicago. They've developed a dime-sized battery that could be the next step to, like, a 1,000 mile EV range. Now, there a ways from this, but it's really shown some promise. And we're going to talk to one of the researchers about that progress and what it might mean for EV battery range going forward. That's on Climate Cast, of course, tomorrow between 3:00 and 6:00 PM on All Things Considered.
EMILY BRIGHT: Well, that's just the coolest thing. I'm going to have to listen. Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks so much for your time.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Emily. Have a great day.
EMILY BRIGHT: You, too. And again, that was MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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