A chilly spring week will give way to rain, then warmer weather

CATHY WURZER: It's almost May. Do you believe that? April's almost out of here. This week, though, we really have not had especially mild weather. It's been a little chilly-- not very spring-like. Joining us right now to talk about our weather is our Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, Paul. What's going on?

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. Great to be here. Good to talk to you. And I have some encouraging news today.

CATHY WURZER: What?

PAUL HUTTNER: Encouraging, yeah.

CATHY WURZER: I need that.

PAUL HUTTNER: The rivers. Can we talk about those rivers?

CATHY WURZER: Yes.

PAUL HUTTNER: So this is good news because many of the rivers around Minnesota have crested and are falling now. We had a top three snowfall season across Minnesota this year, as you know, and that's translated into a top 10 flood of record for many rivers around our region. But the good news is I think the worst is behind us this week.

The Saint Croix at Stillwater has crested now, and it's steadily falling or starting to slowly fall. It looks like this was the seventh highest crest at Stillwater, so that's pretty significant. Just quick check some other rivers around the area. The South Fork of the Crow, which people in Delano know about, it floods almost every year. This year was pretty bad-- the fourth highest crest on record that crested Sunday. It's falling quickly now.

Now, the Mississippi in the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities has already crested. It's starting to fall, but the Saint Paul crest looks like it'll be Friday. The Weather Service saying 18.3 feet. What that basically means is the 14th highest crest on record. And then the Red at Fargo has already dropped two feet from its crest forecast to drop another five feet by next Tuesday, so that is certainly good news.

That rainfall you mentioned, Cathy, looks pretty spotty, especially in Southern Minnesota-- less than 3/10 of an inch, so that's going to favor those rivers continuing to fall. So this was a bad flood season, but it could have been worse. And hey, kudos to the National Weather Service NOAA's North Central River Forecast Center.

They are co-located with the National Weather Service office in the Twin Cities out in Chanhassen. And between them and the Weather Service providing the input for these forecasts, they've done a terrific job of forecasting these flood crests this year.

CATHY WURZER: They have indeed. That's our look at rivers. How about lakes? And I say this because Sven mentioned this earlier this morning, and I've lost track. The ice out dates are a little late this year.

PAUL HUTTNER: They are. There are about four to five days late in the Twin Cities area. If you look at some of the bellwether Twin Cities like Minnetonka, of course, that went out April 19. That's six days past the median date of April 13. Bde Maka Ska April 14, so that's five days past the average. And White Bear, April 18, which is four days past the average.

Now, ice out is making its way up towards Saint Cloud, south of Mille Lacs, that area right now. There's still a lot of ice on the lakes up in northern Minnesota, but you're right. It's a good four to five days behind average. And I guess that's not a big surprise with the chill we've had and all the snow and ice this last winter.

CATHY WURZER: He and I were laughing earlier this morning about how-- we were taking bets as to whether some of the lakes in far northern Minnesota on the Gunflint-- would they be out by what, June? Because this has been such a long winter up there.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. The fishing opener is always interesting when you get into northern Minnesota, too, because many of those still have ice on them.

CATHY WURZER: Do a little ice fishing. I know. OK. So let's talk about some milder air. I'm hoping that arrives this week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. The forecast is looking promising-- better, anyway. I wouldn't say super great, but better. So today, pretty nice out there. We just hit 50 in the Twin Cities. We've got sunshine here. Now, there are some showers in Western Minnesota, showers and sprinkles, and those will make their way East as we go through the day.

This system, Cathy, looks spotty and occasional, kind of intermittent as far as the showers. So occasional showers maybe later today, tomorrow, Friday into Saturday. Does not look like any kind of an all day washout. We're going to be a little warmer tomorrow in the Twin Cities. 65, I think, in between showers. 61, Friday, and then back into the 50s this weekend, even 40s.

Northeast Minnesota, yes, could see a little bit of light snow, especially Friday night into Saturday. Maybe some more snow showers on Sunday, but not too bad. Less than 3/10 of an inch of rain, I think, from the Twin Cities, Southern Minnesota maybe a half an inch to an inch, North Central, Northeast Minnesota.

And the outlook looks better. Cool into early next week. Maybe we're in the low 50s again. It looks likely, I should say. But then the forecast models painting 60s next Wednesday through Friday. The European model is cranking out highs in the 70s a week from today. So is the Canadian model. The GFS model is kind of broken these days, it seems like, so I'm inclined to lean toward warmer air. We could maybe use warm here, or at least very mild by about a week from today, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: It would be really nice. And this question is going to come out of left field. Because you had that little spasm of warm air with the highs in the 80s recently, I'm wondering what the long winter-- does anyone know anything about the possibility of a severe weather season coming on the heels of such a long winter? What does the research show about any-- is it more or less or the same?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. There are a couple of theories on that. And we did just come out of this La Nina, and it looks like we're headed for El Nino in the Pacific next winter, which could conceivably mean a milder winter for the Twin Cities statistically. But in these La Nina sort of springs, there is a signal for increased severe weather across the Midwest into the Central Plains.

All this cold air lingering to the north, the warmer air starting to bump up against it-- you get those strong temperature contrasts. So in theory, we could have an active severe weather season this year. You may remember a year ago, the first half of last year, we had one of the most active severe weather seasons on record. I think the Twin Cities-- it was the highest number of warnings they had put out through mid or late May.

So the early part was active. We may see that again this year or at least more active than usual. But Cathy, those connections between winters and summers in Minnesota-- they're not statistically real strong. Not as strong as say, hey, it's an El Nino winter next year. A 70% chance we'll see above average temperatures overall.

CATHY WURZER: And before you go, Climate Cast. What are you talking about this week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. We're talking with Kate Knuth about the new climate action plan that Minneapolis is developing. It's been about 10 years since the first climate action plan was developed. And in fact, former mayor R.T. Rybak was our very first ever guest on Climate Cast a little over 10 years ago talking about that plan.

So we're going to revisit what Minneapolis is doing. They're also looking for public input, so we'll have a way to get your voice in there to be heard on that. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: All right, Paul Huttner. Thank you. Have a good day.

PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thank you, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's our chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.