'Hard on the plants and hard on the people who raise them:' Abnormally dry conditions spread

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: A new report released this morning shows large swaths of Minnesota-- about 72% of the state is abnormally dry and about 12% of the state is in a moderate drought. Those figures have increased since just last week. So are we heading into yet another parched summer? We're going to ask NPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard about that. Hey, Sven, welcome back.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, hello. Yeah, it's getting pretty dry out there again.

CATHY WURZER: [SIGHS] No kidding. So what's the difference between moderate drought and abnormally dry?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, just a categorical difference of just how dry it is. When we talk about abnormally dry, that's usually short-term dryness. Moderate drought is when we start to see damage to crops, streams, water shortages in terms of a percentile.

So abnormally dry, we're in the top 20% to 30% driest periods. Moderate drought puts us into that top 10% to 20%. And then you can guess the next categories, severe and extreme droughts, are even worse. And we're not seeing that yet in Minnesota, but it is pretty remarkable that we've gone from where we were at to seeing even 12% of the state now in moderate drought.

CATHY WURZER: Dan Wolfe from KBJR in Duluth tweeted, "140 inches of snow and we're already back in moderate drought. Come on." It is strange.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, it certainly is. And Duluth is one of those places included in the drought, even after all the snow they had. And most of the North Shore is in the moderate drought area, as well as the northern half of the metro. Saint Cloud is included in this, Morris out to the West, and then the southwestern part of the state as well in that drought area. Many of these areas had a very wet winter in early spring also.

CATHY WURZER: So after all the flooding we had, how did this happen?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, the same pattern that-- it's all related to the wildfire smoke and everything, the same pattern that developed this spring. When we were still pretty cold, we saw a large area of upper-level high pressure. Air that flows clockwise and blocks out precipitation and clouds started to develop in Western Canada. They got some scorching temperatures there.

Ice has been going out of Hudson Bay early because of that heat. And because it happened early in the spring, it really dried things out because obviously, in Canada, just like in Minnesota, everything is dead when we start spring. And so that spawned the fires there.

And then that area of high pressure has been moving back and forth from Western Canada, through the Upper Midwest, Eastern Canada, and now back just to our west. And that's just created these very warm, dry conditions that have developed pretty rapidly in May. So literally, it's like turning off the spigot here in early May on precipitation in Minnesota. And our temperatures skyrocketed to well above normal.

CATHY WURZER: Now, we're seeing that as a trend now. I mean, I know that pinning one event on climate change isn't really possible, but, I mean, are we seeing something like this happen now in the past few years?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, it's really complicated because overall, Minnesota's getting wetter as we warm up. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. But 70% of our precipitation comes from thunderstorms in the warm season, May through September. And we all know thunderstorms can be very hit-and-miss in nature.

And so one of the things that we see with the change in climate in a place like Minnesota that sees a volatile extreme climate even naturally is those extremes are becoming more extreme. So we head into these very dry years. But it's entirely possible we could head into next summer being one of our wettest ever. 2016 and 2019 were our wettest years ever, and now we're where at now. So we're going to see probably these back-and-forth swings in extreme precipitation.

CATHY WURZER: Hmm. So I was looking at the forecast. We do have rain on Saturday.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, there's a chance. Unfortunately, this is going to be pretty hit-and-miss. A cool front is going to try to spawn some showers and thunderstorms.

Looks like the best bet of some real measurable rainfall will be in southwestern Minnesota, which does include one of the drought areas, so maybe up to 1/2 inch there. But looks like Central Minnesota largely will miss out on any significant precipitation. Twin Cities area, which is included in the drought, may be up to 1/10 or 2/10 of an inch. But most of us are going to be left pretty parched, I think, after Saturday.

CATHY WURZER: Longer term, though?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, longer term, pretty much all the models agree that the next four to six weeks, which takes us through the rest of June into early July, we're going to be racking up more precipitation deficits. So sad to say, I think, each week we're going to probably see drought expand in Minnesota, at least in the short term.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, gosh. All right. Sven, thank you. We really appreciate your time. Thanks for the outlook.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely. You're welcome, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: So the weather patterns that Sven talked about have had some pretty big effects on farmers, of course, late heavy snowfall, flooded fields, delayed planting in many parts of the state. And now that those plants are in the ground, it's dry. With the outlook threatening a third year of drought, farms of all sizes could soon be under big stress.

John Beaton runs a vegetable farm in Saginaw that's near Duluth, which is seeing moderate drought conditions, as you heard from Sven. We're pleased that John has taken the time to be on the phone with us and check in. Hey, John, how are you?

JOHN BEATON: I'm doing good. Thanks for having me on.

CATHY WURZER: Hey, thanks for being here. Thanks for taking the time. So tell me, what have the conditions been like up at the farm there?

JOHN BEATON: Well, just like what you talked about earlier. I mean, really, we had a very wet winter and had some really late snowfall. But once we got the temperatures to melt that snow, I mean, all that moisture is gone now. And it's been just super dry. We haven't had any rain for weeks now. So it's tough. It's really tough.

CATHY WURZER: I'm betting you have a well and an irrigation system, so you're not completely dependent on rain?

JOHN BEATON: Right. We do have the irrigation system, which is good. But then that just involves more labor too to move that system around. And it does tax our well. It's stressful on the plants, and it's stressful on the humans that have to take care of the plants too.

CATHY WURZER: You mentioned the plants. What do you have on the ground right now? And how is the crop looking?

JOHN BEATON: Well, we grow mixed vegetables. We operate a CSA farm, so we've got all kinds of things, broccoli and cabbage. And we just planted our tomatoes. And we also do some cut flowers.

So things are holding up because, like I said, we are running our irrigation regularly. I wouldn't say it's catastrophic, but, boy, we could use some moisture.

CATHY WURZER: What are you hearing from other farmers who you know that are maybe in the same boat?

JOHN BEATON: It's the same deal all around. We operate on a relatively small scale, but I know folks close by that operate on a bigger scale. And there, you just take that stress and extra effort, and you just multiply that as your operation gets bigger. And whether folks grow livestock or grow crops or fellow vegetable farmers, that lack of moisture, it just adds on to that stress level on the farmer and the plants.

CATHY WURZER: You heard Sven, of course, mention some of these trends that we're seeing. And we're on this roller coaster in terms of moisture pattern here in our region. Because of this pattern that we've got going on, have you changed any of your practices?

JOHN BEATON: Yeah. That's a hard question because really, what it is and what we're experiencing is these fluctuations of dry years than there's wet years. So from a farmer perspective, it's really hard to predict what's going to happen next. But we have implemented certain practices.

And I've seen other farms implement them around the state as well, so things like cover crops, keeping living roots in the soil to help hold on to that moisture. We're trying the best that we can to reduce our tillage and reduce the disturbance of the soil so that you're not allowing that moisture to evaporate. And then using more precise irrigation so that we're using that water responsibly when we do use it. And I think a combination approach like that is important.

CATHY WURZER: This may seem like a question that is maybe ignorant, but are there crops that you might want to rethink, veggie varieties that you might need to rethink because of their thirstiness in a sense, if that makes sense to you?

JOHN BEATON: Yeah. We grow a wide variety of crops. The thing is with what we do, it's more of not what types we grow, but when we plant and how we plant those things. I think that's the biggest adaptation that we're trying to find a solution with because typically, at the beginning of June or mid-June, that's the time when we're trying to produce our first CSA shares.

So things like radishes and rhubarb and asparagus, these are typical things that we try to target for our first crops to put in the CSA share. But now, with the intense heat and dryness, it makes it difficult for those things to thrive. So it's causing us to rethink our season. And what we're contemplating here at our operation is those things should be planted earlier so that we can tap into those cooler temps and the moisture when we have the moisture. So it's a challenge.

CATHY WURZER: Mm-hmm. I see what you're saying. Thank you. I appreciate your explanation. I wish you and, of course, all farmers all the best here. We'll keep our fingers crossed for more moisture for everybody.

JOHN BEATON: Yeah, thank you. Appreciate it.

CATHY WURZER: You too. John Beaton grows vegetables and flowers at the Fairhaven Farms near Duluth.