Abnormally high summer temperatures in Minnesota: Is relief on the way?

CATHY WURZER: Perhaps the rain wasn't ideal for your 4th of July plans yesterday. But hopefully it at least put a dent into the drought conditions we have seen spreading across the state this summer. Let's find out about that now from NPR meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. Sven, thanks for being here.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, absolutely. Of course, it wasn't the nicest 4th of July holiday, during the day, if you're on a pool or at the lake. But this year we got to kind take the rain whenever we can. And it did also--

CATHY WURZER: I'm glad for it.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. And having that morning midday shower and thunderstorm activity, along with the clouds, prevented a potential severe weather outbreak, which nobody needs late in the day, too. And we picked up some good amounts in some spots, especially the East and South Metro-- 1.32 inches in Roseville; 1.12 in Hudson, Wisconsin; 0.67 of an inch in Saint Paul; and officially at the airport, 0.57 of an inch of rain, which makes it the second biggest rainfall, pathetically, since mid-May.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, my.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. And a 1 inch swath, also importantly, throughout a big chunk of Lake County in Northeastern Minnesota, including Silver Bay. Of course, those areas-- Boundary Waters have been parched. There have been on and off fire bans-- so some good news on the rain front.

But then there are large areas of Central Minnesota that have been largely missed over the past seven days. So the new drought monitor will come out tomorrow. And probably going to see that severe drought area, I bet, expand in Central Minnesota. But maybe up around Duluth, in the North Shore, it might shrink some because we've seen some consistent rain.

And this time of year, you got to get a lot of rain consistently in order to really undo the drought. And they've actually seen that just in a small area of Northeastern Minnesota. So that's some good news over the last several days and week.

CATHY WURZER: OK, we'll look forward to getting into that drought monitor tomorrow, and kind of cross our fingers. Let's talk temperatures. How have we been so far?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. We know, of course, it's been a hot start to summer and end to spring. Monday was our hottest temperature for those-- a lot of people have been kind of checked out the last several days. In case you didn't know, we hit 95 in the Twin Cities. We're now up to 13 days of 90 so far, and counting, of course, which is average for a whole year. So not surprisingly, we're ahead of schedule. And the consistency of the heat is what's also been really interesting this season.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah. Yeah. It just keeps being hot, basically. We keep having air quality issues. So I'm grateful today is really nice. It's nice and cool.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. We're getting a brief break from that cooler, breezy-- you got a northwest breeze out there. Dew points continue to drop.

Talking about temperatures in Northern Minnesota, they're only in the 60s right now. And we're going to stay kind of in the 70s here, in Southern Minnesota. But, statewide, by the end of the day today, dew points are going to be in the 40s, even some 30 dew points in the northern part of the state.

That's the air that you'd expect in September. So it makes it feel much more comfortable. But, also, as the skies clear out completely overnight tonight, it's going to lead to some cooler temperatures-- but, yeah, a rare, below normal stretch of temperatures here today, and probably into tomorrow still.

CATHY WURZER: And when dew points are lower-- and it's, what, every 10 points is like half the water content? Can you just break that down for me?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, close-- 20 degrees. So every 20-degree difference in dew point temperature is a factor of 2. So we went from mid- to upper 60s dew points yesterday, to mid- to upper 40s dew points by this evening as you head out for a walk or stroll. That will equate to, yeah, half the water content in the air compared to 24 hours ago.

So that's why it feels so much significantly different, even though temperatures won't be that much different. We only got up to 81, 82 yesterday. We'll be in the upper 70s this afternoon, evening. So temperature-wise won't be a lot different. But that moisture content, of course, makes a huge difference on how it feels on our bodies.

CATHY WURZER: How rare are cool spells lately?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Lately, of course, pretty rare. This is probably going to be the coolest stretch of weather relative to the normal we've seen since the middle of May. We're going to get past 75 today. But had we only hit 75, it would have been the most below normal day we've had since the middle of May.

But the temperatures tonight are probably going to be the coolest we've seen, in at least three weeks, for most of the state. And we talked about that consistency of the heat. Since May 1, above normal, high temperatures have outnumbered below normal temperatures by a factor of almost 4 to 1.

So below normal days-- like yesterday was 1 degree below normal. Today is several degrees below normal-- probably below normal again tomorrow. These are very rare. And to have three in a row, we haven't done that since the middle of May.

CATHY WURZER: OK. And so tonight will get pretty cool. Definitely a thing to keep in-- well, cooler. Good thing to keep in mind if you're camping, for example. When are our next chances of rain?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Probably not until Friday. Northern Minnesota, the next disturbance comes through. We're going to have these minor disturbances rotating around an area of cooler air, kind of centered over Hudson Bay. So it looks like mainly the northern part of the state, better chance of seeing some of those showers. Friday, maybe an isolated thunderstorm.

Probably dry here in the southern part of the state. But we'll see some increased cloud cover. And then Saturday, maybe an isolated thunderstorm could pop up in Southern Minnesota. But, again, the better chance will be the northern part of the state.

Southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, probably not looking at a significant rain chance until maybe sometime next week. But Northern Minnesota, which also needs the rain, pretty good bet of at least some spotty showers and thunderstorms Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

CATHY WURZER: OK. And about 30 seconds left-- so looking long-term, what are you seeing as far as temperature trends?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. It looks like we're going to stay closer to normal this week and next-- so some relief from the heat. I don't see really 90s in sight. We might get close Monday. But not the consistent kind of heat that we've been seeing.

By mid-month, though, models are hinting about heat building back in. So enjoy this weather while we've got it.

CATHY WURZER: Well, thank you, Sven.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: You're welcome.

CATHY WURZER: That was NPR meteorologist, Sven Sundgaard.