Does Dean Phillips have a real shot at the presidency? UMN professor weighs in

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: Sources say this week, Minnesota DFL Congressman Dean Phillips will meet with potential donors in New York as he mulls a primary challenge to President Joe Biden. Phillips says he is considering challenging Biden. Phillips, who is 54 years old, and several other Democrats have openly called for a contested primary with younger candidates against President Biden, who is 80. I recently talked with Phillips about his calls for 90-year-old Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein to resign, and he said, "Democrats need to work to create more turnover in leadership."

DEAN PHILLIPS: That allows a caucus to select the person who's most capable, most competent, most able to lead rather than simply rewarding the person who's been around the longest. And that's part of the problem I see in the Senate, the House, and even in the White House right now.

CATHY WURZER: Joe Biden is the oldest sitting president in US history, and at the start of a potential second term, he would be 82. Here to help explain all of this is University of Minnesota political science professor Kathryn Pearson. Professor Pearson, welcome.

KATHRYN PEARSON: Thank you so much.

CATHY WURZER: I rarely read the comments to a story, but it was interesting to see what people are saying about this potential move, ranging from praise for talking about younger leadership to Phillips being called ageist and an opportunist. How surprising is it that a sitting President is potentially facing an intraparty challenge?

KATHRYN PEARSON: Well, if it were a serious intraparty challenge by some of his main opponents in the 2020 nominating contest, that would be surprising. But it's not surprising that he's facing some challenge. Of course, Marianne Williamson, Robert Kennedy, Jr, they've already said they're going to challenge the President, but he's not facing a serious challenge.

Phillips himself, of course, was elected to Congress in 2018, and he's a well-known member of the US House, but that said, he has not served in the House for very long, and so it is a bit surprising that he's talking about challenging a sitting President who, among Democrats, is very popular.

CATHY WURZER: So when we look at Phillips, as you say, he has a track record, but he really hasn't made much of an impact on the national scene yet. So you don't consider him a serious challenger?

KATHRYN PEARSON: I really don't. I could see why he is attractive to some of the donors in New York that he is meeting with. He has business experience. He's a moderate. He's socially more liberal. But he's not someone who will necessarily appeal to some of the biggest Democratic Party donors who are really loathe to even talk about supporting any other candidate other than President Biden right now.

Certainly, behind closed doors, there is a lot of concern that President Biden is 80. But that said, again, he has a significant track record of legislative accomplishments during his first two years, and again, is very popular among Democrats.

Now, he is very unpopular among Republicans, but that doesn't make him different than any other Democrat who would run, but it is also concerning to Democrats that he's not very popular with independents right now. But even as all these things are true about Biden's weaknesses, that doesn't give Representative Phillips a path to office as he's trying to potentially stake it out.

I think we're seeing some different signals. The political columnist Jonathan Martin, who broke the news on Friday, reported that Biden-- excuse me, that Phillips was unlikely to mount a challenge unless Biden's health worsens, but then The New York Times said that Phillips did confirm his interest in running via text but isn't giving interviews.

So I really see this as a trial balloon. Are donors interested? And that on the other hand, what are other Democrats saying? And I suspect what he's hearing from other Democrats is, please don't highlight President Biden's weaknesses.

CATHY WURZER: There are some centrists who are part of this group called No Labels who want to run a moderate candidate as an independent. How is maybe what Congressman Phillips is mulling part of all of this? Is it-- or is this even in the mix?

KATHRYN PEARSON: It's not. Representative Phillips has denounced No Labels because No Labels as a third party would definitely have the potential to weaken President Biden or whoever the Democratic nominee is because it's unclear who a No Labels candidate would take more votes from, particularly if a No Labels candidate is someone who previously identified as a Democrat.

CATHY WURZER: He has-- Representative Phillips has been outspoken about enacting term limits in Congress, as you heard in that little clip. He's called on older members of Congress to move out. Senator Mitch McConnell, as you know, has had some health issues. He had that lapse last week in a news conference. Do you think the conversation around age in Congress is changing at all?

KATHRYN PEARSON: Members of Congress, the Senate especially, but on both chambers are older on average than ever before. And so I do think that is generating an important conversation. That certainly was part of the conversation that led to Speaker Pelosi, even though incredibly effective and successful, to ultimately step down as Speaker so that younger Speaker Jeffries could take over. And so I do think we're seeing that.

On the other hand, I also think that Representative Phillips is really trying to insert himself into a national dialogue by talking about, for example, a Senator from California whose constituents he does not represent. And so I think that he really tries to position himself nationally as someone who is the voice of reason. He is the Co-Chair of a House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, and that's a very lower-level leadership position, but I think he's really trying to be one of many voices in the Democratic Party.

And I think that his views are probably similar to the views of many of his constituents, but I think some of them are not necessarily in line with the average Democrat nationally.

CATHY WURZER: Is he tiptoeing into ageism, and is that an issue? Is that a problem?

KATHRYN PEARSON: Yes, I think he is, I think he is. I mean, I think the-- I think the conversation is complicated. Certainly, members of Congress have a lot of different responsibilities, and if they're not able to complete them, that is a problem. But it is also curious as to why someone from Minnesota is taking such an active voice about a Senator from California.

CATHY WURZER: Say, getting back to some of the names, should the President have some issues, some health-related issues, who's in the wings? Beyond Kamala Harris, obviously, but other names that pop up? I mean, obviously Senator Klobuchar attempted to make a run at this and failed. Is she also in the mix somehow?

KATHRYN PEARSON: Yes. I mean, I think that certainly we're talking and hearing about Representative Phillips today, but I think it is likely that other Democrats, particularly Democrats who were in the nominating contest in 2020, are thinking about this possibility as well.

So most obviously, Vice President Kamala Harris, but also, sure, Senator Klobuchar has much more national recognition than Representative Phillips. Senator Cory Booker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

So I think that there are probably many people who are thinking about a presidential run at some point. Maybe it's 2028, maybe it's 2024. But certainly right now, most Democrats who would be successful in a nominating contest that came together quickly are certainly not saying anything about it and very publicly supporting President Biden.

CATHY WURZER: Of course, we're talking about the Democrats here, but Donald Trump is 77 years old and he's considered the frontrunner on the Republican side. There are some other challengers. He's facing Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence-- younger than he is. Is age playing into that race at all?

KATHRYN PEARSON: I think age is playing into that race as well, but probably to a lesser extent. Recent polling published today in The New York Times showed that about a third of the Republican base is just incredibly loyal to President Trump-- former President Trump. Another third could certainly be persuaded to vote for the former President in a nominating contest. And then about a third of Republicans really actively want someone new.

And so both parties face some complications in their nominating contests. And although if you look at the President's incumbency status and polling in the Republican nominating contest today-- it seems most likely that it would be a Biden-Trump rematch, there is still a long time until we know who the candidates will ultimately be this time next year going into the 2024 Election.

CATHY WURZER: You are right. We have a long way to go. All right, professor. Always great talking to you. Thank you so much.

KATHRYN PEARSON: Thanks, Cathy, great to talk to you.

CATHY WURZER: Kathryn Pearson is a political science professor at the University of Minnesota.