Election Tuesday: A closer look at the stakes in Minneapolis and St. Paul races

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: In less than 24 hours, the polls will be open across Minnesota for Election Day. This is an off-year election, with the focus on most ballots local races-- contests for mayor in many cities, school board, school bond referenda.

In both Minneapolis and St. Paul, every single City Council seat is up for grabs. Newly elected officials in both cities will have a lot of big issues on their plates, from public safety to affordable housing.

We're going to take a look at both cities and what's at stake with Pioneer Press reporter Frederick Melo during "Looking at St. Paul." Of course, MPR's Jon Collins is following Minneapolis races. We'll start with Jon.

Jon, the outcomes of these Minneapolis City Council contests could have a pretty big impact on the balance of power on the Minneapolis council. What does that mean Specifically

JON COLLINS: The people have to remember, the balance of ideologies in the city of Minneapolis is not traditional left versus right or Democrat versus Republican. All the City Council members are either Democrat, or there's a socialist.

And Minneapolis City Council ideologies really range from the liberal Democrats, described as more moderate, to the more lefty progressives. And that wing includes some members who are also supported by the Twin Cities Democratic Socialists of America.

So in Minneapolis, you have a mayor who is also a moderate or a liberal Democrat. And then you have the more progressive wing that has clashed with the mayor and the more moderate members on all sorts of issues over the last term-- rent control protections. For rideshare drivers, the debate about whether and where to place the new third precinct police building.

So this time, all 13 seats are up for election. And it could have implications for both which faction controls the city government, the majority, and for the issues I mentioned just a second ago, which could be resurrected.

And the question remains about whether progressives, even if they get the majority, can pass policies they support that can withstand a mayoral veto.

CATHY WURZER: So one of the races that you're following is this matchup between the current council president and a challenger. What's most interesting about that particular contest?

JON COLLINS: That's Ward 8. And so Council President Andrea Jenkins-- she calls herself a pragmatic progressive-- is being challenged by newcomer Soren Stevenson, who's an affordable housing advocate.

And this particular race is interesting for a couple of reasons. Jenkins is well known. She was the first Black trans woman to be elected to public office in the United States.

And then she was among the nine Council members who, back in 2020, stood on a stage in Powderhorn Park next to a banner which said "Defund Police."

ANDREA JENKINS: I certainly have many years of experience in City Hall. But I have lived experience as a Black transgender disabled person. And so that is what really influences how I govern, more so than the time that I've spent in City Hall.

JON COLLINS: And I should note that progressives like Stevenson say Jenkins' leadership has not led to any meaningful police reform.

SOREN STEVENSON: She has not led a council over the last few years that has been effective at dealing with our basic needs-- our basic needs around public safety, around police accountability, around housing and climate change.

JON COLLINS: And Soren Stevenson is also interesting, Cathy, because back in 2020, he had his left eye shot out by a rubber bullet that was fired by a Minneapolis police officer during a peaceful protest. So Stevenson has a lot at stake in the outcome of Minneapolis' public safety debate, too.

CATHY WURZER: How much daylight is there between these two individuals when it comes to political positions, between Jenkins and Sorensen?

JON COLLINS: When you listen to them, they're talking about very similar things. They have very similar perspectives, perhaps different routes to get there. But around affordable housing, police reform, racial equity, they all say these are priorities.

But Jenkins has often in the past-- she has a record, of course, because she's served in office. She's voted with the more moderate majority on many issues. That's the majority supported by Mayor Jacob Frey, who himself has become unpopular with some progressives in the city.

It's also obviously a challenge to run with a record like Jenkins has. But despite being the Council president, Jenkins did lose the DFL party endorsement to Stevenson, who is a newcomer to city politics. And that could be perhaps one indication of how the DFL base is feeling in this race, and perhaps in the city at large.

And then there's also a bigger thing going on. I spoke to Hamline political science professor David Schultz. And he said what's really at stake in a number of these races in Minneapolis this time around is whether the moderates or the progressives will control the Council starting next year.

DAVID SCHULTZ: The Council could actually push a little bit further to the left. And if so, the question becomes, how far does it push, and does it give the Council members veto power over the mayor?

JON COLLINS: And the Minneapolis Council has 13 members. So in order to get a veto-proof majority, the progressives would need nine votes.

CATHY WURZER: So what other Council races are you following?

JON COLLINS: Another race that could bring more progressive voices to the Council is in the Seventh Ward. And that's an open seat left by longtime council member Lisa Goodman, who decided not to run after spending a quarter century on the Council.

The main candidates in this race are Katie Cashman and Scott Graham. Cashman's 30. She has a background as an advocate for the environment. She's been endorsed by a big slate of progressive groups and lawmakers, and oddly enough, the actor Jane Fonda.

Graham is 62. He's a realtor. He's worked as a property manager. And again, the candidates have staked out seemingly similar positions on the main issues in this race. Both candidates oppose rent control, or rent stabilization, which is a big demand of people on the left side of the spectrum.

And Cashman says she would rather spend the city's limited resources to enforce housing protections that are already on the books. And she argues that her experience in policy makes her the candidate who can best keep the city moving forward.

KATIE CASHMAN: The government is how we take care of people. The government provides public housing. It provides public health care. It provides public services. And those all need to be top quality so that all residents can enjoy a quality of life in our city.

JON COLLINS: And Scott Graham told me he believes the city has made some progress since the killing of George Floyd, and he wants to see that steady progress continue.

SCOTT GRAHAM: Our progress is precarious. And I really feel like we need a steady hand on the tiller of our City Council to carry through some of the good work that's been started, to continue to work on reforming our police department, to increase public safety in our city, and build the housing we need so we have a just and equitable city for everybody who lives in it.

CATHY WURZER: So we have Ward 12, which is another race I know you're watching. Council member Andrew Johnson is leaving. Who are the main candidates in that race?

JON COLLINS: So the DFL-endorsed candidate is Aurin Chowdhury. She's 26. She's worked in City Hall as an aide. She's done community organizing. She's won some other campaigns.

AURIN CHOWDHURY: I have experience working in local government, passing policy, and pushing the status quo. and also experience working on three different budget cycles. And we need-- I'm the candidate that's going to be ready on day one, and I think that's a key difference.

JON COLLINS: And Chowdhury's main opponent is Luther Ranheim. He's worked for nonprofits and a wealth management company. And Ranheim says he'd bring that experience to bear as a steward of the public's money.

LUTHER RANHEIM: I'm a pragmatic leader who listens to people and takes in information and looks to make the best decision that will meet the needs of everyone in our community.

JON COLLINS: And one of the main differences in this race is that Chowdhury does support some sort of rent stabilization policy, although she doesn't support the 3% cap. And she would support exclusions for small property owners and affordable housing, whereas Ranheim says rent control would do more harm than good for the people it's supposed to help and could halt development of affordable housing in the city.

CATHY WURZER: So some interesting Council races you're watching. Jon Collins, thanks for the update.

JON COLLINS: Thanks so much.

CATHY WURZER: Well, we're going to turn to St. Paul right now, where, as I mentioned, all of their City Council races are also on the ballot. The St. Paul School Board also has some seats up for vote. And St. Paul voters will decide if they want to raise sales taxes.

To give us an overview is Pioneer Press St. Paul Bureau Chief Fred Melo. Hey, Fred, how are you?

FRED MELO: I'm doing all right. How are you doing?

CATHY WURZER: Good, thanks. Now what are there, some 30 candidates running for seven seats? You want to start with Ward One? They've got eight candidates there, a whole lot of fundraising. What's at stake for that seat?

FRED MELO: Well, it's interesting. There was no DFL endorsement in Ward 1. There was a big walkout back in April. So really it's up for grabs. You have eight candidates, like you said. It's an open seat. It was held by council member Dai Thao, who moved out of state about a year ago.

And there's some big issues here, everything from a bikeway on Summit Avenue that has a lot of residents and homeowners and some cyclists up in arms on Summit Avenue. It could take out some trees. It could make biking safer.

There's some more general issues, just property taxes, potholes, just kind of the existential malaise that is infrastructure right now in St. Paul. And then there's things like do we change rent control, which was already approved in St. Paul in 2021?

It had kind of a slower rollout, a difficult rollout, some would say. It was heavily amended in September of last year, a year ago. And now the question is, do you amend it, do you end it, or do you kind of stay the course and see what the results are?

CATHY WURZER: So Ward 1, of course, pretty interesting place. And that includes Frogtown, Summit-University, as you say. There are some other interesting ward seats that are open. I'm thinking Ward 5 is open for the first time in what, a dozen years?

FRED MELO: Yeah, that's the seat that's represented by the Council President, Amy Brendmoen. And it combines some really low income, big immigrant areas in the North End with some, frankly, wealthier areas around Como Park. A little bit just outside of downtown, there's a neighborhood called Railroad Island.

So yeah, you're seeing some energy there for candidates. And certainly there's a DFL-endorsed candidate who probably has an edge there. But when Amy Brendmoen ran 12 years ago-- when she first ran-- she won by 36 votes and unseated an incumbent there by 36 votes.

It's not really a high turnout ward. So it probably wouldn't take that much to swing it one way or another. But again, there is a DFL-endorsed candidate there.

CATHY WURZER: That Ward 7 seat is also open for the first time in years. I mean, my gosh, what's in that ward that we should be keeping track of?

FRED MELO: It's interesting because Ward 7 has had really sleepy advanced voter turnout, or early voter turnout, people bringing in their absentee ballots. Not a lot of people are doing that-- about 300 or so, compared to 1,000 in Ward 1.

Ward 7 is the east side of St. Paul. Again, some immigrant areas, low income areas. Kind of spread out. It almost has a suburban feel. And you do have a DFL-endorsed candidate there, Cheniqua Johnson. She's got-- there's six people in that race.

So you would think that maybe that would inspire more turnout. That hasn't been the case so far. Maybe they'll vote on Election Day. But when you have a sleepy election, when you have a sleepy race without much turnout, it doesn't take that much to turn it.

So Pa Der Vang seems like she has the most organized energy after Cheniqua. And she's gotten some institutional endorsements. She's certainly probably a little bit more moderate, maybe to the right of Cheniqua a little bit, but still on that progressive DFL side of things. So yeah, I think there's a race there. I think there's a legitimate race.

CATHY WURZER: So clearly when all is said and done, there are going to be a number of new faces on that St. Paul City Council. What could a new council do with hot button issues like rent control?

FRED MELO: You know, it's really going to be interesting. Because the Council that's seated right now said, wow, rent control is very aggressive in St. Paul. We have a 3% cap. We had no exemptions at all for new construction.

The Council a year ago in September said let's exempt new construction for 20 years. And that was in part on the recommendation of a task force, I think, that had asked for 15 years. So they went even further.

20 years, if you're a brand new building, you don't have to abide by rent control. Would that be rolled back? That's a good question. I think it will certainly come up in this new Council, which I suspect will be either a small step to the left, two steps to the left, or a deep step to the left of the existing Council.

So as groups like Take Action Minnesota, Faith in Minnesota, and the Twin Cities Democratic Socialists, they get more of their endorsed candidates on the City Council, I think you'll have that discussion. I couldn't tell you right now what parts of rent control will stay or go and how much people will stay the course and get more data before they make any changes.

CATHY WURZER: Hey, how much buzz are you hearing about the ballot question that would raise sales taxes in St. Paul to raise money for roads and parks?

FRED MELO: Yeah, this is a big question. I don't think it's as electrifying as rent control was a couple of years ago. It's not as electrifying as organized garbage collection was in 2019. That really brought a lot of people to the polls.

Still, St. Paul, if this gets approved, would have the highest sales tax rate in the state at 9.875%. So it's just adding one percentage point, but we've already seen things go up a percentage point for the metro-wide sales tax for transit and housing.

So it's a big impact on the restaurants and the retailers. On the other hand, we have limited resources, limited other options when it comes to filling in potholes and fixing our streets.

This would reconstruct two dozen streets in St. Paul. There's certainly a sense of wow, we need to do something, and it needs to be something fundamental. It can't just be increasing some of these pots a little bit one time.

So this is an ongoing funding source, $30 million a year for 20 years. It's not a small question. I've heard both sides. Right now if I was a betting man, I'd say there's certainly an attitude of it's time to make some fundamental changes.

CATHY WURZER: A lot you're going to be keeping track of. And St. Paul's got ranked choice voting, right? So it'll be a while before you get a winner in some of these races.

FRED MELO: I don't think we're going to see a winner in Ward 8-- I'm sorry, Ward 1 in particular, where you have eight candidates-- until Friday evening or maybe even until Saturday after the election.

CATHY WURZER: All right. Fred, you're the best. Thank you so much.

FRED MELO: Thank you.

CATHY WURZER: Fred Melo is the St. Paul Pioneer Press Bureau Chief.