Wet rather than white Christmas in the forecast

[BING CROSBY, "WHITE CHRISTMAS"] I'm dreaming of a white Christmas just like the ones.

CATHY WURZER: Some of our Christmas will be staying merely a dream this year. We're looking at above freezing temperatures, which means any precipitation coming down won't be snow. It's going to be a wet versus white Christmas.

MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joins us as we end December weirdly warm. Oh gosh, I'm telling you. There's just no hope, is there at all for white Christmas?

PAUL HUTTNER: You know, how about a green Christmas, a soggy green Christmas? I've got folks telling me they still have green grass in some lawns in Southern Minnesota. So this is really, really unusual, Cathy.

In fact, snow depth across northern Minnesota really Central and Southern Minnesota too is at historical lows. There's less than an inch of snow in International Falls on the ground, about an inch in Duluth, and many places in Northern Minnesota have had a white Christmas 100% of the time since the late 1800s when records were kept. And I think some places will not have one this year for the first time on record.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. And this is all because of this supercharged El Niño?

PAUL HUTTNER: It is, but I think I was looking at some numbers. I think this is a two-fold mechanism. There's climate change, and there's El Niño. So let's start with the Niño.

It is unofficially what we would call a super El Niño now. The tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is 2 degrees Celsius above average in the tropical Pacific over a large area now. 1.5 is what we call a strong El Nino, what NOAA does.

But 2, we kind of call this super El Niño. We only get a few of these over the last decades. So it's changed the jet stream. It's sending these waves of unseasonably mild air into the US. And that's what's kept us very, very warm this month.

So I looked at numbers, I'm thinking, OK, how much of this is El Nino? And how much is climate change? And if you look at the data from Climate Central, the NOAA data, climate change has warmed Minnesota about 5 and 1/2 degrees in winter since 1970. So El Niño is adding to that.

We're about 9 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities this month, 10 to 12 degrees warmer in Northern Minnesota. So it's not real scientific. But intuitively, if you figure climate change is worth about 5 degrees of warming, maybe this El Nino is another 4 degrees or so.

There's not enough years to say that scientifically of data. But I think it's both. It's climate change and it's El Niño.

CATHY WURZER: So may I wish you a happy winter solstice a day early?

PAUL HUTTNER: Absolutely. And back to you, Cathy. December 21 tomorrow 9:27 PM that's when the solstice, and guess what, the daylight starts getting longer. The sunsets are already getting lighter.

The Earth is quirky in its orbit. So that happens before the solstice. So 4:33 tonight in the Twin Cities. Sunset is at 4:41 by New Year's Eve. And you'll notice that evening daylight, Cathy, starting to increase here later this month and especially as we move into the first days of January.

CATHY WURZER: I'm going to assume, I probably should not assume this however, but I'm hoping I guess that there will be some kind of winter here after Christmas into January.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I think, there will be. I'm starting to see some changes in the maps that suggest we're going to get some colder air, potentially some snow as we move through January. But NOAA's outlooks right now still have a pretty strong likelihood of warmer than normal conditions as we move into the first days of January.

But we're not going to get there it looks like this week because we're into the low 40s this afternoon, into the low to mid 40s Thursday and Friday, and we could set some records on Christmas Eve, Cathy. I'm forecasting 53 for the Twin Cities. The record is 46.

And you were right when you said it's going to come down as rain. This weather system moving in Christmas Eve will widespread rain shield over Minnesota half an inch to an inch, maybe of rain. Christmas Eve through parts of Christmas Day it'll taper off, still 48 on Christmas Day in Southern Minnesota, Cathy.

So this will be a very, very unusual Christmas. I remember I was studying in Germany in 1982 about some folks telling me that was a year when they had rain and thunder in parts of Minnesota. So pretty unusual this year, almost unprecedented in parts of the state.

CATHY WURZER: Wow, I don't remember that 1982. I'm wondering about climatecast, what are you going to talk about?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so anybody in Minneapolis now next year starting next year will pay an additional dollar a month for their gas or electric service. And it's part of a climate initiative in Minneapolis that will help weatherize homes and try to reduce emissions that way. Dave Orrock wrote about it for the Star Tribune. So we'll talk with him, and that will be, of course Thursday during All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: Always a fun guest too. Well, this will be my last chance to wish you a happy holiday. So enjoy the holidays, my friend.

PAUL HUTTNER: And you too, Cathy. All the best to you for the rest of this year and in 2024.

CATHY WURZER: And back at you. Thanks much.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That is our Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. And by the way, you can listen to Paul and our friend Tom Crann part of All Things Considered every day, Monday through Friday. ATC is on at third until 6:00 right here on MPR News.

And of course, you can always check out the latest weather information by going to our website mprnews.org, click on the Updraft Blog.

[BAREFOOT MOVEMENT, "I JUST WISH IT WOULD SNOW"] I just wish it would snow but I know it's warm in Carolina snow brings me Christmas cheers.