Welcome spring, welcome snow? Get the details on the week’s forecast
Fresh snow coats the ground at Lincoln Park in Duluth on April 16 as Miller Creek runs high from spring runoff.
Andrew Krueger | MPR News 2023
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Wednesday is the first full day of spring, but per usual, the Minnesota spring equinox is throwing us for a bit of a loop.
It has felt spring-like for months, but this week we could be facing the most snowfall we have seen all year.
MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to explain.
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Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: Today is the first full day of spring, but no surprise here, Minnesota weather is throwing us a loop. It's felt pretty springy for months. But this week, we could be facing the most snowfall we've seen all year. MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner is here to explain. I've been waiting to talk with you. I just don't even know what to say about this forecast.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, You kind of knew that our warmest winter movie would end this way, with a snowy barrage as we head into spring.
CATHY WURZER: Because we're Minnesotans, it's like, the other shoe is going to drop, just a matter of when. So this looks like this is a multi-stage affair here. So snow tomorrow night?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes. And I think the big picture is the gift of moisture. We have been in the second longest dry streak on record in the Twin Cities, 34 days as of today. That will end tomorrow night with snow. It's a clipper, Cathy, sliding down I-94 from Fargo-Moorhead into the Twin Cities tomorrow night. I think the first flakes will fly up around Fargo-Moorhead area probably late tomorrow afternoon. Twin Cities looks like it'll take its time. It may not get in here. It's got to overcome a little dry air near the surface, so maybe 9 o'clock tomorrow night, 10 o'clock.
But the bulk of the snow will come in overnight, around midnight and after, probably wrapping up by 6 AM Friday. Friday morning rush could be a little slick. How much snow? Well, it looks like this band of about 2 to 5 inches looks reasonable along I-94, from Fargo, through Saint Cloud, through the Twin Cities, maybe up as far as Brainerd, Hinckley, Detroit Lakes, less south, maybe an inch to 3 inches, Mankato down that way, also as you head up toward Grand Rapids, the Iron Range. This doesn't look like a major system, Cathy. But it's been a while, so we can polish up on our driving skills, I guess, again, on Friday morning.
CATHY WURZER: That'll be super fun, I'm sure. I'm very curious about this second storm system.
PAUL HUTTNER: As am I. This one looks bigger and potentially wetter. It's a Colorado low, so it's going to have a deep fetch, a tap of Gulf of Mexico moisture just feeding into the system. And it's going to be moving slower. So it's going to have a couple of days for this thing to develop. If this thing gets its act together, it looks like it could dump heavy precipitation. The great news, forecast model is printing out 1 to 3 inches of liquid with this system. And that'll fall on the drought area, so that could be pretty good news.
The question is, where will it be all snow? And where will it change to rain or a wintry mix? The forecast models, as of today, favor a starting as snow on Sunday, so most of Minnesota getting a good shot of snow. And then forecast models, most of them, are saying we would change to rain or a wintry mix in the Twin Cities, southern Minnesota, maybe Sunday night into Monday. That would cut snow totals here.
But where it stays all snow, Cathy, I could see a foot of snow or more, if this thing goes as it's forecast right now. For places like maybe Brainerd, Alexandria, who knows, maybe up to Duluth, it's early. I can't get that fin of brush just yet. But the potential is there, so little lower confidence with that system. But it looks like it's big, it's wet, and it's coming. It's just a question of how much rain and how much snow.
CATHY WURZER: When I said, eh, I'm thinking of rain. I'm thinking things freeze. But is it just too warm for that?
PAUL HUTTNER: I think that after the system, hopefully, it will warm up again a little bit. And the soil is not frozen. So I think a lot of this will soak in.
CATHY WURZER: That's great, very happy because when we when we look at the season's snowfall totals, they're just abysmal.
PAUL HUTTNER: They are. We've only had 14.3 inches in the Twin Cities so far this season. To date, 45.6 inches is normal. And let's just say we add another 5 to 10 inches plus by Tuesday or so. That would only bring the Twin Cities up to 20, 25 inches. And normal for the season is 51.2. So even if we get significant snow between Thursday night and next Sunday, Monday, we'd be way below our season normal of over 51 inches.
CATHY WURZER: But it would still dent the drought.
PAUL HUTTNER: It will. And I'm really looking forward to that. Now, this week's drought monitor, it's already closed for the precept. So it won't matter this week. But by next week, it could, between the snow we get Thursday night into Friday morning and then hopefully that real wet system Sunday, Monday, maybe even lingering into Tuesday. 75% of Minnesota is in drought, Cathy. This will fall right over that drought zone. So I think by next week, next Thursday, we could hopefully see the drought improving by a category or so.
CATHY WURZER: Not to be a little rain cloud, but and this is all-- when you start talking about the need for moisture, it's good news. But what could possibly screw this up?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'll tell you what. This first system Thursday night could track a little farther north, maybe seeing more like 1 or 2 inches, especially southern Twin Cities. I think the best chance will be northern metro for 4 or 5 inches. The second system, who knows, it could veer, although I will say this. The models have been pretty remarkably consistent in bringing it in. And the thing about that system is, Cathy, it's so big that I think even if it were to come in and be all rain, we would still get a ton of rain, so fingers crossed that that will be a very, very wet system for Minnesota.
CATHY WURZER: Good. We will have fingers and toes crossed. How about Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, tomorrow we're talking about record warm ocean temperatures. This has been remarkable, Cathy, because about a year ago, ocean temperatures spiked to way above previous record levels. And they've stayed there for the past year. A lot of climate scientists are pretty worried about this. And they're not sure what's happening. So we're going to talk with John Abraham, who you know from the University of Saint Thomas. He is one of the leading researchers in ocean temperatures and climate change and how 90% of that warming goes into the oceans. The question is, are the oceans saturated? And they're starting to give this up back to the atmosphere. So we'll talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow on All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: Always interesting. Thank you.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: Talk to you later. That's Paul Huttner. He will be on the air with my colleague Tom Cran, All Things Considered, later this afternoon. And you can always get updated information, weather information, on the Updraft blog. You can find that at mprnews.org.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, You kind of knew that our warmest winter movie would end this way, with a snowy barrage as we head into spring.
CATHY WURZER: Because we're Minnesotans, it's like, the other shoe is going to drop, just a matter of when. So this looks like this is a multi-stage affair here. So snow tomorrow night?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes. And I think the big picture is the gift of moisture. We have been in the second longest dry streak on record in the Twin Cities, 34 days as of today. That will end tomorrow night with snow. It's a clipper, Cathy, sliding down I-94 from Fargo-Moorhead into the Twin Cities tomorrow night. I think the first flakes will fly up around Fargo-Moorhead area probably late tomorrow afternoon. Twin Cities looks like it'll take its time. It may not get in here. It's got to overcome a little dry air near the surface, so maybe 9 o'clock tomorrow night, 10 o'clock.
But the bulk of the snow will come in overnight, around midnight and after, probably wrapping up by 6 AM Friday. Friday morning rush could be a little slick. How much snow? Well, it looks like this band of about 2 to 5 inches looks reasonable along I-94, from Fargo, through Saint Cloud, through the Twin Cities, maybe up as far as Brainerd, Hinckley, Detroit Lakes, less south, maybe an inch to 3 inches, Mankato down that way, also as you head up toward Grand Rapids, the Iron Range. This doesn't look like a major system, Cathy. But it's been a while, so we can polish up on our driving skills, I guess, again, on Friday morning.
CATHY WURZER: That'll be super fun, I'm sure. I'm very curious about this second storm system.
PAUL HUTTNER: As am I. This one looks bigger and potentially wetter. It's a Colorado low, so it's going to have a deep fetch, a tap of Gulf of Mexico moisture just feeding into the system. And it's going to be moving slower. So it's going to have a couple of days for this thing to develop. If this thing gets its act together, it looks like it could dump heavy precipitation. The great news, forecast model is printing out 1 to 3 inches of liquid with this system. And that'll fall on the drought area, so that could be pretty good news.
The question is, where will it be all snow? And where will it change to rain or a wintry mix? The forecast models, as of today, favor a starting as snow on Sunday, so most of Minnesota getting a good shot of snow. And then forecast models, most of them, are saying we would change to rain or a wintry mix in the Twin Cities, southern Minnesota, maybe Sunday night into Monday. That would cut snow totals here.
But where it stays all snow, Cathy, I could see a foot of snow or more, if this thing goes as it's forecast right now. For places like maybe Brainerd, Alexandria, who knows, maybe up to Duluth, it's early. I can't get that fin of brush just yet. But the potential is there, so little lower confidence with that system. But it looks like it's big, it's wet, and it's coming. It's just a question of how much rain and how much snow.
CATHY WURZER: When I said, eh, I'm thinking of rain. I'm thinking things freeze. But is it just too warm for that?
PAUL HUTTNER: I think that after the system, hopefully, it will warm up again a little bit. And the soil is not frozen. So I think a lot of this will soak in.
CATHY WURZER: That's great, very happy because when we when we look at the season's snowfall totals, they're just abysmal.
PAUL HUTTNER: They are. We've only had 14.3 inches in the Twin Cities so far this season. To date, 45.6 inches is normal. And let's just say we add another 5 to 10 inches plus by Tuesday or so. That would only bring the Twin Cities up to 20, 25 inches. And normal for the season is 51.2. So even if we get significant snow between Thursday night and next Sunday, Monday, we'd be way below our season normal of over 51 inches.
CATHY WURZER: But it would still dent the drought.
PAUL HUTTNER: It will. And I'm really looking forward to that. Now, this week's drought monitor, it's already closed for the precept. So it won't matter this week. But by next week, it could, between the snow we get Thursday night into Friday morning and then hopefully that real wet system Sunday, Monday, maybe even lingering into Tuesday. 75% of Minnesota is in drought, Cathy. This will fall right over that drought zone. So I think by next week, next Thursday, we could hopefully see the drought improving by a category or so.
CATHY WURZER: Not to be a little rain cloud, but and this is all-- when you start talking about the need for moisture, it's good news. But what could possibly screw this up?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'll tell you what. This first system Thursday night could track a little farther north, maybe seeing more like 1 or 2 inches, especially southern Twin Cities. I think the best chance will be northern metro for 4 or 5 inches. The second system, who knows, it could veer, although I will say this. The models have been pretty remarkably consistent in bringing it in. And the thing about that system is, Cathy, it's so big that I think even if it were to come in and be all rain, we would still get a ton of rain, so fingers crossed that that will be a very, very wet system for Minnesota.
CATHY WURZER: Good. We will have fingers and toes crossed. How about Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, tomorrow we're talking about record warm ocean temperatures. This has been remarkable, Cathy, because about a year ago, ocean temperatures spiked to way above previous record levels. And they've stayed there for the past year. A lot of climate scientists are pretty worried about this. And they're not sure what's happening. So we're going to talk with John Abraham, who you know from the University of Saint Thomas. He is one of the leading researchers in ocean temperatures and climate change and how 90% of that warming goes into the oceans. The question is, are the oceans saturated? And they're starting to give this up back to the atmosphere. So we'll talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow on All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: Always interesting. Thank you.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: Talk to you later. That's Paul Huttner. He will be on the air with my colleague Tom Cran, All Things Considered, later this afternoon. And you can always get updated information, weather information, on the Updraft blog. You can find that at mprnews.org.
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