Your Mother’s Day and fishing opener forecast

CATHY WURZER: OK. You know we've had some back and forth between rain and shine these past few days, but you all know it's-- well, the flowers are blooming. It's spring in the state of Minnesota. Joining us to tell us what we can expect for the rest of the week is MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hey, welcome.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, good to be here, Cathy. I just have to say, what a day out there. This blue sky, bright blue sky, and that high energy green color you get from those bursting leaves on the trees, it's just lovely out there today.

CATHY WURZER: I do love that green. That early spring green is so beautiful.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.

CATHY WURZER: Say, where are we-- I was gone last week, so I kind of missed some of the information here. But where are we when it comes to the drought and rainfall and soil moisture?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is really a great weather story for Minnesota because there are several measures of how we've just steadily worked our way out of this drought. Now rewind back to September 26 of last year. 100% of Minnesota was either in drought or abnormally dry. Fast forward to today. It's 36% in Northwestern, North Central Minnesota, most of the areas. But I think we're going to see that drop even more this week because we've had more widespread rains across the state. That's one measure.

Here's another measure-- soil moisture. The farmers are getting out in the fields. We now have 23% of Minnesota that has surplus soil moisture. So especially, I think, west, southwest of the Twin Cities, they've had several inches of rain. And 65% is adequate, 10% short. So that soil moisture has come up.

And one more measure-- our ponds, our rivers, our lakes. Lake Minnetonka in the Western Twin Cities is kind of a bellwether watershed for the Twin Cities. It's risen a foot since April. It's near that ordinary high water level. Minnehaha Creek, they've opened the Grays Bay Dam. It is ripping, Cathy-- 275 cubic feet per second. That's fast. I mean, that's too fast for canoeing for most people on Minnehaha Creek. So there's a lot of water moving through the landscape these days.

CATHY WURZER: Good news. Hey, what about the rest of the week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it looks good overall. Today, we are just sunny, most of the state. Now, there is a low pressure system around Sioux Falls, a warm front down along the Iowa border. That's the area where we're going to see a few showers and thunderstorms pop this afternoon. Most of that will be southwest of the Twin Cities. There's a marginal risk for severe storms, Redwood Falls, Mankato, down to the I-90 corridor. So be ready for that.

In Southern Minnesota, some thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening could pack a little hail, maybe some gusty winds, a lot of downpours, lightning and thunder. I think we'll stay dry from the Twin Cities north. 75 today in the Twin Cities, 60s well up north. Tomorrow, mostly sunny, 64. Friday looks pretty good. Just an isolated shot at a shower, 71.

And then we get into the Mother's Day and Fishing Opener weekend. That's a big one here in Minnesota. And it looks pretty good overall. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, just a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, both Saturday afternoon, evening and Sunday afternoon, evening. Maybe 10% coverage, Cathy, across Minnesota. So a lot of us are going to stay dry. But 70 Saturday, 76 on Sunday, 60s north this weekend.

CATHY WURZER: And no walleye chop on the lakes?

PAUL HUTTNER: A little bit. You know, 10 to 15. You get out over the lakes, we might be as high as 20. So I do think we'll have a little bit of a walleye chop this weekend.

CATHY WURZER: All right. So speaking of wind, I was in Kansas and Oklahoma last week.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, my.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, yeah.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, my.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah. So that was amazing to watch some of those storms whip up. How are we doing? It seems like that area of the country, which is Tornado Alley anyway-- have they had more than normal in terms of tornado reports? It feels like it.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes. And it's really ramped up over the last month. April, Kathy, there were more than 300 tornadoes in the US. That's the second highest for April on record. We are now up to 639 tornadoes. I just checked NOAA's Storm Prediction Center website. 639 across the US so far this year. The average to date is 536. So we're above that now. And like I said, 300 to 400 in the past month.

The map has been interesting, Cathy. We've been so lucky in Minnesota because you look at the map of where all these tornadoes have come down-- Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, down into Oklahoma. Even east-- Illinois, Indiana, parts of Ohio. It has been an incredibly active map for tornadoes.

I'm hopeful that won't just continue to come north here. But, hey, May into June is peak severe weather season for Minnesota. So we'll have to keep an eye out.

CATHY WURZER: Indeed, yeah. We're going to watch that, obviously. So, hey, before we go, Climate Cast-- I understand there's a new way to track climate change in Minnesota?

PAUL HUTTNER: There is. I learned something new this week. It's called leaf glow. Now, we don't see this with the human eye, but researchers at the University of Minnesota have found ways through satellites and other instruments to see these chlorophyll traces on our leaves in Minnesota-- even our coniferous trees, pine trees. And they're able to track climate changes through that. Pretty interesting conversation I had. We'll hear that tomorrow on All Things Considered on Climate Cast.

CATHY WURZER: All right. Thank you, Paul Huttner.

PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Paul is, of course, chief meteorologist here at MPR. You can hear him later this afternoon on All Things Considered with Tom Crann. And of course, if you're looking for weather updates and maps, we have the Updraft blog. You can find that at mprnews.org.