Severe weather Wednesday: second round of storms expected in the afternoon and evening

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: Folks in Western Minnesota woke up to hail the size of golf balls. And the severe weather is expected to continue around the state today. The National Weather Service is even recommending campers in the boundary waters shelter under tied down canoes should the need arise and supercell storms spin up.

MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner is here with the forecast. Well, this looks a little wild. You know, I just noticed noted storm chaser Reed Timmer is drifting around northern Minnesota, waiting for storms to pop. It's not a great sign when that happens.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the Dominator, that's his vehicle. We'll see if it finds any trouble today. You know, the atmosphere is just kind of bumpy and grumpy today across Minnesota, Cathy. We've had that morning batch of storms you mentioned. It produced golf ball sized hail in Madison around 6:24 AM in Western Minnesota and Blomkest at 9:45.

And radar lighting up now from the Twin Cities south. No watches, no warnings in effect for Minnesota right now, but we've got storms from the southern Twin Cities, pretty much garden variety storms down to Kasson, just northwest of Rochester, strongest cell northwest of Albert Lee right now. And that runs down from Mankato to about, well, Mapleton and New Richland. And that morning batch of storms will dive south through southern Minnesota.

But it's stabilized the atmosphere here in the Twin Cities, Cathy. We've got a few storms in northeast Minnesota, east of Ely, down to Tofte, over to Grand Marais. That's the area that will looks like kick up later today. Our atmosphere a little more stable now with these morning storms in the Twin Cities. So we're going to have to wait and get some sunshine.

And it looks like things are coming together. The models have been all over the place, but they seem to be agreeing on a solution. We've got that slight risk for the Twin Cities, southern Minnesota. But the enhanced risk in northern and central Minnesota, that's a level three out of five from Brainerd, International Falls, Duluth to the North Shore. That's the area it looks like will blow up later this afternoon with strong storms. Maybe International Falls down to Grand Rapids and the Iron Range and then drift to the North Shore, and move to the southeast.

That cluster of most of the forecast models saying it'll move into Northwest Wisconsin, but there's a little tail that could develop and move into the Twin Cities between about 8:00, 9:00 PM tonight. So we may be seeing just the tail end of that come through. Cathy, the atmosphere favorable for storms with sustained, intense updrafts today.

That means large hail, potentially 2-inch to 3-inch diameter hail, especially northern Minnesota. That's what NOAAs Storm Prediction Center is saying, we'll have some hailers. So it'll be very interesting to watch this develop later this afternoon, again, in northern Minnesota, potential for this evening in the Twin Cities area.

CATHY WURZER: And what about heavy rain? We've had so much rain recently. Are we going to add to the totals, do you think?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we are. I already picked up 6/10 of an inch in my gauge this morning from this morning's round here in the southwest Twin Cities. And it kind of looks like a June monsoon on the weather maps. I used to work the southwest monsoon in Arizona back in the day.

There's a heavy rainfall potential really for the next 10 days. We've got the storms today, potentially Saturday, potentially a couple of rounds again next week. So kind of a series of heavy rainfall events. The forecast models are cranking out widespread 2 to 4-inch rains the next 10 days. But there's a lot of models that are saying 5-inches-plus. Big pockets of 5-inches-plus and even some local 10-inch amounts.

CATHY WURZER: Wow.

PAUL HUTTNER: So we could get 5 to 10-inches of rain in parts of Minnesota in the next 10 days. It won't all come at once, but there could be several rounds of heavy rain, especially central and southern Minnesota. June's our wettest month, Cathy, you know that. We average 4.5, 8-inches of rain in the Twin Cities. Could we see double that in the next two weeks or so?

Certainly possible with the way the atmosphere is just dealing these storms and the jet stream right over Minnesota.

CATHY WURZER: I know for the Climate Cast this week, you talked with our friend Kenny Blumenfeld, the state climatologist, about the climate trends and precipitation across Minnesota. Did he allude to this?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, I mean, we're seeing changing rainfall patterns in Minnesota. You know, as we've talked about, we had the three years of flash drought in summer.

CATHY WURZER: Right.

PAUL HUTTNER: This year, it's soggy and that seems to be continuing. But overall, he's been tracking those shifts and trying to draw that connection between our changing climate and our changing precipitation patterns. So we'll talk with Kenny tomorrow on all things considered on Climate Cast.

CATHY WURZER: So before you go, I was doing some reading about billion dollar weather disasters.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes?

CATHY WURZER: And I'm wondering, when was the last big one we had in the state?

PAUL HUTTNER: Well, remember last summer, August 11, we had that big hailstorm that dropped large hail over central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. That was $1 billion weather disaster last year right here in Minnesota. Hail, wind damage are our big causes for those. And that August 11 hailstorm was one of $28 billion weather disasters across the country last year, and that was a record, Cathy.

We're already off to 11 in the United States this year, so we'll see what the number is by the end of the year.

CATHY WURZER: Wow, all right. I know you're going to be busy today. Thank you so much.

PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. And of course, you can find weather updates. Follow us on social media. You can go to mprnews.org/weather for our radar and our updates.