Weekend forecast to be the hottest of the year so far
Forecast heat index values by Sunday afternoon (likely the peak of our heat)
NOAA via pivotal weather
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We may see our first 90-degree day of the year this week. MPR’s Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News Host Nina Moini to talk about the hot forecast ahead.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: We might see our first 90 degree day of the year this week. Joining me now to look at the hot forecast ahead is our chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hi, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina. Welcome to Miami this week. It's been like a free Miami weather vacation this afternoon--
NINA MOINI: Yeah, I was going to say. Yeah, that's right. I used to live down in Fort Myers for a couple of years, and every day around 4 o'clock, we'd have a bit of rain or something like that. So what can we expect this week up here?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this has been like a tropical weather pattern for, really, the first few days of this week. We get the morning sun most days, other than today, when we had the morning showers, and heats up the ground. You get those rising thermals, and boom, you get those afternoon cloud bursts. They've been pretty isolated, but they have dumped some heavy rain locally.
Yesterday, that cell that came through Minneapolis down toward the airport dumped about 7/10 of an inch in a real hurry. Today, we've got a few showers south of the Twin Cities, down around Mankato, over to Waseca, heading for I-90 around Blue Earth. And then we'll get a few more of these pop-up cells today. They're drifting toward the southwest. So they'll come in from the north and the northeast today, but still isolated, only about 10% coverage. So, interesting to watch that. One more day before we dry out a little bit, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, I feel like I'm somehow always driving when a rain burst like that happens. I need to be paying better attention. But what can we expect, then, for the rest of the week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to dry out and warm up big time as we head into the weekend. I noticed today, we've got some wildfire smoke on the satellite loop. You can't see it great because of the clouds today. But air quality in the moderate range across most of Minnesota today and for the next couple of days. It's Canadian wildfire smoke.
And it looks like today, we'll hit about 83 in the Twin Cities. We are already up to 80. Mostly sunny, warmer tomorrow on Thursday. Nicer, drier weather. 86 tomorrow, 87 on Friday. And then we get set for the big bake this weekend.
NINA MOINI: Sure. So it looks like it'll be in the 90s this weekend, but will it also be pretty humid?
PAUL HUTTNER: It will. It's kind of a triple whammy on the humidity. A hazy, hot, and humid this weekend. Here's what's happening. We've got this tropical moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico coming into Minnesota this weekend. We've also got evaporation from the soils, which are saturated, and then corn sweat, Nina. The corn plants are really efficient at pulling moisture out of the soil and evaporating it into the lower atmosphere.
Dew points will hit probably the 70s, possibly 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. And when you combine that with highs around 90 on Saturday in the Twin Cities and into the 90s Sunday, I think we'll hit about 94 in the Twin Cities, much of southern and western Minnesota. The heat index will feel like 100 degrees by the time we get to Sunday afternoon, Nina. So this will be our first 90 of the year. I think in the Twin Cities last year, we had 33 days of 90 degree heat, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Oof! Well, it feels like it's kind of about time that we should be experiencing some 90s. Well, could you talk about sort of astronomical versus climatological, summer peak, or why it's typically so hot after the summer solstice in July?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we get our peak daylight, our peak solar intensity on the solstice, June 20. That's when the sun is highest in the sky. And we actually have 15 hours and 36 minutes of daylight that day.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: But climatological peak summer comes later. There's a bit of a lag in the seasons, about a month. And so that's when the warmest temperatures come, mid to late July. Really, the next two weeks climatologically are the warmest of the year in Minnesota. Our high in the Twin Cities now for normal is 84 degrees for the next two weeks. So that heat kind of builds up, even as the sun, daylight gradually begins to fade here, Nina. So, typically, our hottest days are in the next two to three weeks.
NINA MOINI: That sounds about right. Let's talk a little bit about Climate Cast. What do you have in store for us this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, of course, we've been following the heavy rains and the dams around Minnesota, for example, that Rapidan Dam down around Mankato--
NINA MOINI: Ah.
PAUL HUTTNER: --the flooding rainfalls there. And our dams around the Midwest, around the US, are built to previous set of climate assumptions--
NINA MOINI: Hmm.
PAUL HUTTNER: --really kind of a 19th century infrastructure, when we didn't have these extreme rainfall events as frequently. And now we live in a 21st century climate. So we'll talk about that tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: All right. Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Appreciate it, Nina. Thanks.
NINA MOINI: That's MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. You can find the latest forecast on the Updraft blog at mprnews.org.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina. Welcome to Miami this week. It's been like a free Miami weather vacation this afternoon--
NINA MOINI: Yeah, I was going to say. Yeah, that's right. I used to live down in Fort Myers for a couple of years, and every day around 4 o'clock, we'd have a bit of rain or something like that. So what can we expect this week up here?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this has been like a tropical weather pattern for, really, the first few days of this week. We get the morning sun most days, other than today, when we had the morning showers, and heats up the ground. You get those rising thermals, and boom, you get those afternoon cloud bursts. They've been pretty isolated, but they have dumped some heavy rain locally.
Yesterday, that cell that came through Minneapolis down toward the airport dumped about 7/10 of an inch in a real hurry. Today, we've got a few showers south of the Twin Cities, down around Mankato, over to Waseca, heading for I-90 around Blue Earth. And then we'll get a few more of these pop-up cells today. They're drifting toward the southwest. So they'll come in from the north and the northeast today, but still isolated, only about 10% coverage. So, interesting to watch that. One more day before we dry out a little bit, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, I feel like I'm somehow always driving when a rain burst like that happens. I need to be paying better attention. But what can we expect, then, for the rest of the week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to dry out and warm up big time as we head into the weekend. I noticed today, we've got some wildfire smoke on the satellite loop. You can't see it great because of the clouds today. But air quality in the moderate range across most of Minnesota today and for the next couple of days. It's Canadian wildfire smoke.
And it looks like today, we'll hit about 83 in the Twin Cities. We are already up to 80. Mostly sunny, warmer tomorrow on Thursday. Nicer, drier weather. 86 tomorrow, 87 on Friday. And then we get set for the big bake this weekend.
NINA MOINI: Sure. So it looks like it'll be in the 90s this weekend, but will it also be pretty humid?
PAUL HUTTNER: It will. It's kind of a triple whammy on the humidity. A hazy, hot, and humid this weekend. Here's what's happening. We've got this tropical moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico coming into Minnesota this weekend. We've also got evaporation from the soils, which are saturated, and then corn sweat, Nina. The corn plants are really efficient at pulling moisture out of the soil and evaporating it into the lower atmosphere.
Dew points will hit probably the 70s, possibly 80 degrees in southern Minnesota. And when you combine that with highs around 90 on Saturday in the Twin Cities and into the 90s Sunday, I think we'll hit about 94 in the Twin Cities, much of southern and western Minnesota. The heat index will feel like 100 degrees by the time we get to Sunday afternoon, Nina. So this will be our first 90 of the year. I think in the Twin Cities last year, we had 33 days of 90 degree heat, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Oof! Well, it feels like it's kind of about time that we should be experiencing some 90s. Well, could you talk about sort of astronomical versus climatological, summer peak, or why it's typically so hot after the summer solstice in July?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we get our peak daylight, our peak solar intensity on the solstice, June 20. That's when the sun is highest in the sky. And we actually have 15 hours and 36 minutes of daylight that day.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: But climatological peak summer comes later. There's a bit of a lag in the seasons, about a month. And so that's when the warmest temperatures come, mid to late July. Really, the next two weeks climatologically are the warmest of the year in Minnesota. Our high in the Twin Cities now for normal is 84 degrees for the next two weeks. So that heat kind of builds up, even as the sun, daylight gradually begins to fade here, Nina. So, typically, our hottest days are in the next two to three weeks.
NINA MOINI: That sounds about right. Let's talk a little bit about Climate Cast. What do you have in store for us this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, of course, we've been following the heavy rains and the dams around Minnesota, for example, that Rapidan Dam down around Mankato--
NINA MOINI: Ah.
PAUL HUTTNER: --the flooding rainfalls there. And our dams around the Midwest, around the US, are built to previous set of climate assumptions--
NINA MOINI: Hmm.
PAUL HUTTNER: --really kind of a 19th century infrastructure, when we didn't have these extreme rainfall events as frequently. And now we live in a 21st century climate. So we'll talk about that tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: All right. Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Appreciate it, Nina. Thanks.
NINA MOINI: That's MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. You can find the latest forecast on the Updraft blog at mprnews.org.
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