Minnetonka area voters to decide control of Minnesota senate in November

CATHY WURZER: Well, this fall, some West Metro voters will decide which party controls the State Senate. There was a State Senate race in yesterday's primary. Former DFL State Senator Ann Johnson Stewart will be the Democratic candidate for the 45th district, district 45 in Minnesota's Senate, one that encompasses many cities around Lake Minnetonka, as an example. She'll be against Republican Kathleen Fowke in November in this special election caused by kind of a game of political musical chairs.

Dean Phillips congressional seat opened up when he decided instead to run for president. And former State Senator Kelly Morrison stepped down from the legislature to run for the open congressional seat. A November special election will determine if Democrats keep a slim majority or if the power shifts to Republicans. Fowke has said there needs to be more balance in state government, and, this morning, Johnson Stewart told us she agrees.

ANN JOHNSON STEWART: Well, sadly, the-- the legislature has gotten to a point where it's not balanced. And so I share that value with her. I think it's great to bring balance and debate. I served in the legislature when we didn't have very much debate, and we didn't have very many hearings for bills that the minority brought forward.

CATHY WURZER: Joining us right now to break down not just this race, but the standout races for the State House is Politics Reporter Dana Ferguson. Hey, Dana.

DANA FERGUSON: Hey, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Let's talk about former State Senator Ann Johnson Stewart. What might have put her over the top?

DANA FERGUSON: Yeah, she has the benefit of incumbency-- or I guess it could be sort of pseudo incumbency-- in that she previously served part of that district when she was a senator prior to redistricting. So there's a chance that people knew her name and had heard about what she'd done during her time in office.

And I think some of it just has to do, as well, with ground game, getting out there and getting to know folks. These primary elections, especially in a special election in the summer, are relatively low turnout. So just any advantage you can get with name recognition or getting out and meeting people can go a long way.

BRIAN BAKST: Dana, we heard in that clip that both are calling for some balance or bipartisanship in state government. Is that a harder argument for Johnson Stewart to make, given that her party has dominated the capitol for the last couple of years?

DANA FERGUSON: I think so. She has a little bit of benefit in that she was not part of the legislative trifecta that DFLers hold. She can point back, as she did there, to her time in divided government, serving in the minority. But she's going to have to answer, I would anticipate, on a number of these policies that DFLers at the capitol have been working on that breaks down to abortion policy, tax increases, additional government spending. So I would guess that Republicans are going to tie her to all of that, even though she wasn't there for it.

BRIAN BAKST: And Republican Kathleen Fowke ran for the seat before but didn't win. Can we tell yet whether that's an asset or a liability?

DANA FERGUSON: I think it's hard to tell. Again, I think there's the benefit of name recognition. Having run before and having got out there and campaigned, she likely has some infrastructure that could help her. But it's just a little bit early to tell in this election cycle how much that'll change the game.

CATHY WURZER: Right. So I mentioned that the party that wins this seat will win the majority in the Senate, right? And I was talking to former State Senator Paul Anderson earlier this morning. He said there's going to be a ton of money poured into this. It could be historic amounts of money poured into this State Senate race. How much money are we thinking?

DANA FERGUSON: Yeah, I think it's fair to anticipate that it'll be millions of dollars spent to influence the race. Our colleague, MPR Politics Fellow Ellie Roth, talked to Kathleen Fowke earlier today, and she addressed this point.

KATHLEEN FOWKE: So actually, on my way down here, I'm hearing that a lot of money is going to be spent here in this race. So I just really hope that we keep it focused on our community and our neighbors and the voters and just, once again, just have an honest and respectful campaign on both sides.

CATHY WURZER: But-- go ahead, Dana.

DANA FERGUSON: Oh, I was just going to mention, it's a high-stakes race. It'll determine who controls the Senate, so it's not unexpected to think that a lot of money's going to come into the district.

CATHY WURZER: And probably a number of outside groups, party caucuses are going to gear up for this thing.

DANA FERGUSON: They are. Almost immediately, Senate DFL and GOP caucuses started messaging about the race and talking about how important it will be to either keep the DFL trifecta or break it with this one seat. We heard from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee earlier today that it's adding the contest to its national map. So that means more attention and more money. And I would expect that Republicans at the national level will do the same thing since they view this as a really key pickup opportunity.

BRIAN BAKST: And Dana, what's the state of play for the House? We heard from some of the House leaders just a bit ago, but what do you think it is?

DANA FERGUSON: Yeah, so obviously, all 134 seats are going to be on the ballot in November. Last night, there were these 22 contested races. It seemed to be a good night for incumbents. Of the seven who were facing primary challengers, six of them managed to make it through. There was only one, Representative Brian Johnson, who was defeated by Isanti Mayor Jimmy Gordon.

So I don't know if that tells us anything necessarily about the landscape heading into November. It's going to be close in a number of areas in the suburbs, potentially some of those swingy seats out in greater Minnesota. So it's going to be a close one.

CATHY WURZER: What fun to be a political reporter. All right.

DANA FERGUSON: [LAUGHS]

CATHY WURZER: Dana, Thank you.

DANA FERGUSON: Thank you.