What are Minnesota's undecided voters thinking about?

CATHY WURZER: There's a new poll out from Ipsos that finds when undecided likely voters were forced to pick a candidate, 53% chose President Trump, 35% Vice President Harris. We're just about one month to election day. And while you may know who you will vote for-- maybe you've already voted-- there are still some people who are undecided.

Other polls suggest about 18% of voters are still undecided. We want to learn more about what's going on inside the minds of these people. So we're calling up Professor John Blanchar. He's the director of the Social and Political Psychology Lab at the University of Minnesota, Duluth. Professor, welcome.

JOHN BLANCHAR: Thanks for having me. Glad to be here.

CATHY WURZER: Given the competitiveness of this presidential race and the narrow margin between the candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it's clearly has created huge interest in voters who say they're undecided about their preferences. Who are these undecided people? What do we know about them?

JOHN BLANCHAR: Yeah, it's a fantastic question. And a lot of people want to know the answer to that, including the campaigns. But one thing to take notice of is that not all undecided voters are the same. I would say there are at least two broad categories of undecided voters, though I also wouldn't say they're mutually exclusive.

The first type consists of people that are politically disinterested or unengaged. These individuals don't regularly follow or discuss politics and current affairs and tend to be turned off by the growing negativity or animosity associated with politics and our divided and polarized society. They also tend to be less knowledgeable about politics in general. When asked about who they're voting for, it's common for these people to say that they need to do more research into the candidates and their policies, that they don't think they know enough to cast a vote.

And that tends to be important because one thing we know about voter turnout when people are uncertain about who they're going to vote for is, do they feel like they know enough to be an informed voter and cast their vote confidently? And when people lack that, they're less likely to turn up.

The other common feature of undecided voters are people who feel ambivalent about both major political candidates and/or the parties themselves. That is, they feel good and bad simultaneously about both options. Attitudes help us guide our behavior. They tell us what to do. Should we approach something? Should we avoid something? And without a clear feeling, negative or positive, we're not necessarily sure what to do. And so this leaves us stuck or paralyzed in trying to make a decision, especially one that keeps growing in importance.

So when they're not sure how they feel about something, they don't know who they're going to vote for. And unless they resolve this ambivalence, they're less likely to turn out to vote. Catherine Norris, a social neuroscientist at Swarthmore College, and I have done a lot of research into unlikely and ambivalent voters. And we found that in the 2020 election, that when people were-- that it is indeed true that people that are undecided tend to be highly ambivalent. And they're generally negative about both candidates overall, but they have mixed feelings. And so they're not really sure what to do. And unless they resolve this ambivalence by election day, they often stay home. They often don't turn out to vote.

CATHY WURZER: They sound like they're paralyzed by the choices they have to make. Is that also exacerbated because our politics are more polarizing?

JOHN BLANCHAR: Yes, I think so. There's such strong, confident opinions that people hear on both sides. And they tend to overestimate how common those people are. They take up more space in the public discussions. And so people tend to think they're more common than they are, which makes people feel even more uncertain about what they ought to do, because they're hearing things from both sides.

CATHY WURZER: I'm wondering, by the way, when you mentioned there are different types of undecideds-- thank you, by the way. It was interesting to listen to you talk about the unengaged or the ambivalent. I'm wondering, can you also say that voters who express a preference but say they might change their minds before the election, are they potentially undecided voters too?

JOHN BLANCHAR: I think so. I think what a lot of case in this is that if you look into research on people that are undecided voters or, in many cases, unaffiliated voters, that they often want to present themselves to themselves and often to other people as independent, that they don't belong to one party or the other, or they're not committed to one party or one candidate or the other, that they do this because they want to think that they're more independent and less biased than other people.

And it's harder to figure out if that's genuine independence and uncertainty or whether this is a motivated thing that people want to see themselves as. And so when you look at people that say they're unaffiliated or undecided and you look at their past voting history, some people consistently vote for one party election after election. So it's not always clear whether this is a genuine independence or nonpartisanship or whether it's that people just feel more comfortable describing themselves or labeling self as independents.

CATHY WURZER: By the way, do you think there are some voters who are still deciding because they may have negative feelings toward the candidates?

JOHN BLANCHAR: Oh, I think that's definitely true. One of the most stark changes we've seen in the past two decades or so is just the growing negativity that people feel towards both parties and both candidates. So we've been repeatedly seeing that at least on one side, if not both sides, many people are voting against a candidate rather than for a candidate. This is what political psychologists and political scientists call negative partisanship, that we're more driven and motivated by choosing between the lesser of two evils. And this doesn't really motivate people to come out and do something. And it motivates them to prevent something. And so when you feel negative about both options, it becomes really hard to know what to do.

CATHY WURZER: I wonder, because this has been such an uncertain political cycle, just in terms of the crazy news that has occurred-- I mean, we had Biden dropping out. And there's been an assassination attempt on President Trump's life. I mean, it just seems-- it's just chaotic. And I wonder, because of the initial uncertainty around the Biden candidacy at first, did that create some of this uncertainty that we are seeing and has just led to where we are at this point?

JOHN BLANCHAR: Yeah. I think that is a unique thing about this election maybe contributing to undecided voters in many ways. Usually, at this point, people know a lot about the candidates for the major parties. People have their opinions about Donald Trump. And most of the people that are undecided will say they have issues with Donald Trump's character and things about his temperament worry them.

But they might remember fondly about maybe the economy or other aspects of their life when he was president a number of years ago. So there are some negative and positive things that people might remember or think about. But they have their opinions. And a lot of people have their opinions about Joe Biden. He's been in politics for a very long time.

And when there was this sudden change, where he was exited the race and there was a sudden pivot to Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic candidate, a lot of people reported that they don't feel like they knew enough about her. And it hasn't really been helpful that she has not done a lot of interviews that provided a lot of details about her plans. So many people are left feeling like they don't have enough information, at least about one of the candidates.

But largely, people have opinions about Donald Trump, many of them negative but also some of them kind of mixed. So I think that's contributing a lot to what's happening here. And it may surprise some of your listeners to know that many Americans, large portions of Americans, often don't know who the vice president is. There are regular large surveys of the American population, many of them done by the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania. And what they reveal is that people are not often very politically sophisticated. And they struggle to answer basic questions like, who is the vice president? Or how many years is a US senator's term?

And so many of your listeners might know the answer to those very basic questions. But that's because we surround ourselves with other people that are similar to us who tend to know that. But many Americans struggle to answer those or don't have that knowledge. So the idea that Kamala Harris was a very well-known person is just not true for most people.

CATHY WURZER: I'm wondering, with so much ambivalence and undecideds at this point, I mean, they're out there. They're not a huge number. But it's enough that could maybe sway the race either way. I'm wondering, do you think we might see a lower voter turnout this year?

JOHN BLANCHAR: Yeah. That's a great question. It's possible. If there are many more people that are ambivalent and that ambivalence is still there by the time they need to vote, good chance that they just won't do anything. The simplest thing is not to act. And so many people that are stuck in that ambivalence trap of, who do I pick, who do I pick, I don't like either option, and I don't feel positively about any of them necessarily, might stay at home.

However, there is a countervailing factor here in that the election is a very close one. If you look at the polls, it looked like early, Donald Trump might run away with this until there was the change to Kamala Harris, and then became a very, very competitive race. This election is so close. And so that is one factor that actually drives voter turnout.

Also, one of the major reasons why we know people vote or fail to vote is whether they believe their vote matters, whether they think it might have an impact on the outcome of the election. And many people don't feel like it matters whether they vote or not. So they're less likely to turn out. But if it's a really close election, and especially depending on where you live, like if you live in a key swing state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, chances are you're going to be more motivated to vote or resolve that ambivalence and make a decision, even if it's one that you're not overall happy with. It might be the better of two bad options.

Your vote is likely to be perceived to matter to you. And that will drive up voter turnout. So there are reasons to think that it could be less. It could be more. But 2020 had very high voter turnout, likely because of many of the changes in voting practices to allow people to vote during the pandemic. So there was early mail-in voting. And many states have continued doing that. So that could also contribute to high voter turnout. But we don't know. But there are reasons for thinking either way.

CATHY WURZER: Say, I need to ask you this question. I would be remiss if I didn't. And of course, I'm sure, as you say, the campaigns would love to have the answer to this question. But given everything we've talked about here in the past few minutes, are some of these undecideds persuadable?

JOHN BLANCHAR: I think they are. I think some are. I think some of it is that some have-- they lean a little bit one way but maybe don't want to say that, because they don't want to feel like that biases them. And they're looking for a way to give themself permission to pick one that maybe they're leaning towards.

So I think they are persuadable but maybe not-- they're not persuadable in a completely neutral stance. So I think that there is some opportunity for some of these campaigns to influence people to come out and vote. But I think they're just looking for enough justification to move them over just that enough of a threshold to get them out there to vote.

CATHY WURZER: All right. Professor, it's really been a pleasure. Thank you so very much. Very interesting.

JOHN BLANCHAR: Thank you. Appreciate it.

CATHY WURZER: Professor John Blanchar is the director of the Social and Political Psychology Lab at the University of Minnesota, Duluth.