Minnesota-raised Tim Sheehy is leading polls to be Montana’s next senator

CATHY WURZER: So I mentioned, there are exactly two weeks left for voters to cast their ballots. And no matter who the next president turns out to be, what happens in Washington will also depend on the results of a very few close races for Congress. Republicans only need to win one seat to tie the Senate, two to take control. And with the retirement of Democratic West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, it's likely they will. That means control of the Senate could be decided by voters in Montana, where a Native Minnesotan is challenging Democratic Senator Jon Tester.

Republican Tim Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL and businessman from Shoreview, Minnesota, who moved to Montana 10 years ago and started an aerial firefighting company. He's now leading in the polls. Montana Public Radio Capitol Bureau Chief Shaylee Ragar joins us for a closer look at this race. Shaylee, I'm so happy you could take some time to talk with us. Thank you.

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Hi, Cathy. Yes, glad to be here.

CATHY WURZER: So some listeners here in Minnesota may recognize the name Tim Sheehy-- Sheehy. I think I got the name right. For those who don't, who is he?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Sure. Yeah, so Tim Sheehy, like you said, is originally from Minnesota. I will say he does not bring that up often in this race. Montanans really seem to value and like people who are from Montana. And so Tim Sheehy will occasionally make a joke that he couldn't control where he was born and he just happened to be born in Minnesota.

But yeah, other than that, being a Navy SEAL is a big part of his identity and an entrepreneur, who founded this firefighting company. And now he's getting into politics. He's never held public office before but is now running for the US Senate.

CATHY WURZER: So how did he come on to the political stage in Montana?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: So he describes it as being recruited. He was recruited to run for this race by Republican Senator Steve Daines, who is Montana's junior senator. And coincidentally, Steve Daines is also chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. So he's in charge of trying to win back the Senate majority for Republicans nationwide and then has this really big race going on in his home state. So he's also a businessman.

And then our current governor, Greg Gianforte, is a businessman. All three are from Bozeman, Montana, and run in the same circles. So Tim Sheehy says he was recruited by them to run and says he felt that it was time to get involved in politics. He cites the US pulling out of Afghanistan and all that transpired after that as a reason to get involved.

CATHY WURZER: Well, as you said, Montanans like other Montanans. And Senator Tester is a native Montanan. I think he grew up on a farm near Big Sandy, Montana. So he knows his way around Montana politics and knows the people.

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Yes. And Jon Tester has been quite a successful candidate in Montana. He often talks about being a fourth generation farmer on the land that his grandparents homesteaded. And he is often still working on that farm. And he has won three elections to the US Senate. Before that, he was a longtime state legislator.

And so he has been a popular candidate in Montana, absolutely. However, he is now the only Democrat holding statewide office in Montana. We used to have more Democrats in higher office. But politics have been changing. So he's kind of the last man standing right now.

CATHY WURZER: He's a tough guy. I wonder, has he been attacking Tim Sheehy for being an outsider?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Oh, absolutely, absolutely. Montana has had actually one of the fastest growing populations in the country in recent years, especially during the pandemic. We saw lots of in-migration. And so I think those new residents don't really appreciate those attacks. But it certainly is a part of John Tester's campaign against Tim Sheehy.

He often talks about there are these billionaires and millionaires who are moving into Montana and making housing prices go up. And everything's more expensive. And Tim Sheehy is part of the problem. And so that is a main attack.

CATHY WURZER: So how is Sheehy's campaign flipping that on its head? Can you present yourself as a political outsider in Montana in a positive light?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Tim Sheehy, I think, is doing his best to flip that on its head in the way of saying, I came to Montana. I founded a company. I came to Montana because I love it. And I love it like you love it. And I choose to live here. It wasn't by accident.

He talks about creating jobs with his company in Bozeman, Montana. He also bought a ranch about four years ago, which, again, people knock him for, that he's this new rancher maybe playing at being a rancher. But he often talks about he's now selling beef. He has ranching jobs. And he's really invested in this Montana way of life.

And I think he is often kind of parroting Trump in that he says, I'm an outsider. And you need that. Jon Tester has been in office for three terms and hasn't done enough. So it's time to have new blood in Congress. And that's been a big part of his pitch.

CATHY WURZER: You mentioned Bozeman, which is kind of a college town. And I was out there in Montana earlier this year, this summer, as a matter of fact. Noticed a lot of Tester signs around Bozeman. And I was out with friends in Sweet Grass County, Montana. Significant signage at the time for Tester out there. That was in June. But it looks as though Sheehy is leading in the polls. So where is his base of support?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Yeah. It's really interesting to see where politics have shifted in Montana and how they've shifted and where we see these different bases for each party. I think Tim Sheehy is courting and is hopeful that strong support for Trump and the base for Trump in Montana will vote for him in November. Trump won Montana by 16 points in the last election.

However, I will say it's really hard to pinpoint. I've been traveling around a lot this election cycle to talk to voters in all kinds of places, in rural counties that often go red. I still have been meeting people who say they plan to vote for Trump but still might vote for Tester. And that's what Tester is counting on this election. So it's hard for me to even pinpoint exactly where those pockets are.

CATHY WURZER: That's where I was curious. I was up near Big Timber, which is kind of a very small place in Sweet Grass County, outside about an hour of Bozeman and saw the Tester signs. So kind of curious about that. I know that Sheehy has evidently stepped into a couple of controversies during the campaign. I guess there's some story about a gunshot wound he says he sustained as a Navy SEAL. Is that some kind of a big issue that's burgeoning in this race?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Yes, absolutely. And I will do my best to explain this concisely because it is quite confusing. But essentially, what happened is Tim Sheehy says in his book that he wrote and on the campaign trail that he has a bullet in his arm from his days in active combat.

And then the Washington Post first reported that Tim Sheehy was cited for discharging a firearm in Glacier National Park in 2015. In that citation, it says he has a bullet lodged in his arm from accidentally firing that gun. Sheehy has come to say that he actually-- he says he lied to the park ranger and that he had the bullet in his arm from active combat but never reported it because he feared an investigation by the Navy. He didn't want to see an investigation into friendly fire, is what he assumed the bullet was from.

And then he fell at Glacier National Park. The bullet is still in his arm. He goes to the hospital. The bullet is reported. I will note that the park ranger just recently has come out and identified himself, who issued the original citation. And he says that he was responding to reports of a gunshot. If Tim Sheehy fell on the hike, where did this gunshot come from? And he is now saying he's fairly certain that gunshot is from Glacier.

CATHY WURZER: By the way, before you go here, it looks like Sheehy is leading Tester by about seven points in the most recent polls I've seen. Does that surprise political pundits in Montana?

SHAYLEE RAGAR: I think seven points is surprising to political pundits. It's maybe larger than they expect. But Montana has become increasingly more conservative. In the last two elections, Republicans have won really big. So I think this is the direction Montana has been going. And for that reason, it's not totally surprising.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Shaylee, I know you're busy. Good luck in the next couple of weeks.

SHAYLEE RAGAR: Thank you. Yes, we're almost there, the final stretch.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah, we are. Thank you. Shaylee Ragar is the Capitol Bureau Chief for Montana Public Radio.