Western Wisconsin race has strong implications for congressional control

CATHY WURZER: Well, Wisconsin mentioned that early voting starts today in the Badger State. For our listeners in Western Wisconsin, You will be casting a ballot in a consequential congressional race. Wisconsin's third district makes up most of Western Wisconsin, including Menomonie, La Crosse, Eau Claire, and even Stevens Point.

On the ballot, voters will be choosing between incumbent Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden and Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Joining us with more on this race, being watched nationwide, is Wisconsin Public Radio's La Crosse reporter Hope Kirwan. Hi, Hope. How are you?

HOPE KIRWAN: I'm good. Thanks for having me.

CATHY WURZER: Good. Thanks for taking the time. Say, for folks not familiar, tell us about the politics of this district. It's kind of a wide-ranging district.

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, geographically, this district is huge. It covers all or parts of 19 counties in Western Wisconsin. It's largely rural, but it also has six University of Wisconsin campuses. So I think that also makes it an interesting district.

And if you look at the History of the third CD, it has-- it's historically been pretty purple. And it has this history of being a swing district. We've seen-- it voted twice for former President Barack Obama, and then it voted twice for former President Donald Trump. So we have seen it swing-- the pendulum swing both ways.

CATHY WURZER: Lots of ticket splitters. I think that when I was at River Falls, this was a district represented by Ron Kind for a long time.

HOPE KIRWAN: It was. 26 years it was represented by moderate Democrat Congressman Ron Kind. He faced a pretty tight race against now Congressman Derrick Van Orden in 2020. And then he decided not to run for re-election in 2022. And so that's when Van Orden flipped the seat.

CATHY WURZER: See, how long has-- well, how would you characterize Van Orden's first years in office?

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah. So in his first term, if you look at Van Orden's voting record, he has the most moderate voting record of Wisconsin Republicans in Congress, which, talking to political science professors about this, they say that really points to the fact that this district is pretty purple. But if you look at Van Orden, his communication style, his campaign style, he's definitely built this reputation as a political firebrand.

He's someone who's not afraid to go on the offensive against his opponents. And he has at times made national news for his outspokenness, probably most-- the biggest example was in the summer of 2023, when he kind of received a bipartisan scolding for when he swore at a group of US Senate pages. These teenagers, they were lying on the floor of the US Capitol rotunda to take a picture of the rotunda's dome, and he ended up aggressively chastising them for their behavior.

And he definitely received bipartisan backlash for that. But Van Orden stood by that behavior. And he really said that he felt like the teens were disrespecting the Capitol. So he's definitely an interesting figure in that way.

CATHY WURZER: Then who is Rebecca Cooke?

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah. Rebecca Cooke is from Eau Claire, and she as a business owner, a small business owner. And she has a history of helping other small businesses in the region and on a statewide level.

She really likes to talk about her upbringing on a dairy farm in the Eau Claire area and the fact that she waits tables a few nights a week still while she's on the campaign trail. So she's definitely presented herself as this "middle of the road" candidate who can relate to working-class people.

Rebecca Cooke does have a history of being a political fundraiser. She was involved in Democratic Congressional campaigns in the past. And that's something that Van Orden's campaign has tried to pick up on and highlight. And they've really tried to call her a political insider. And so that has really made the race about, who truly is the outsider candidate in this race?

CATHY WURZER: There's got to be just gobs of money in this race.

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah, there has definitely been a lot of money and a lot of ad buying in these last couple of weeks as we head towards the November election. As far as when you look at of campaign fundraising, it seems like the Van Orden and Cooke campaigns have been pretty evenly matched.

We have seen money coming in from National Democratic groups, which is something that we didn't see in 2022. Actually, National Democratic groups pulled money from the race in 2022, which a lot of people saw as potentially affected the outcome. But then that race ended up being a lot closer than a lot of people expected it to be in 2022. So I think that has really influenced Democrats to put more money in the race this year.

CATHY WURZER: Is it seat-- I'm assuming then it's a seat that the Democrats think they can flip.

HOPE KIRWAN: Yes, it is one of a handful of seats in the US that Democrats are hoping to flip or have targeted to flip in this year's election. And there is indication that it is a competitive district. And it's probably-- it's one of two competitive districts in the state. So there's-- in Wisconsin, all eyes, I think, are on the Third to see what happens.

CATHY WURZER: Have you seen any polling in this race at all?

HOPE KIRWAN: There has been some partisan polling, and it seems like that has been showing a close race. It's hard to tell with partisan polling. But like I said, I think that every indication points that this is going to be another close race in Western Wisconsin.

CATHY WURZER: So I know you're going to be watching for the impact of these new legislative maps, especially in the Western Wisconsin area.

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that is going to be definitely an interesting thing about this year's election, really, especially for the state house races that we see across the board, some of them in Western Wisconsin but, really, just across the state.

There's the-- for many years, seeing Republicans control the state legislature, there is a chance for-- or Democrats are really hoping that these new maps might allow them to flip control of the assembly. So we'll see. I mean, there's a lot of questions out there with the new maps.

CATHY WURZER: Say, before you go, I know here in the Twin Cities, we've been getting a lot of ad buys, local TV stations for Wisconsin races. And I know my friends in the La Crosse area say, oh my gosh, nearly every commercial break on TV or radio has got these political ads regarding the Third. What seems to be the main themes in these ads?

HOPE KIRWAN: Yeah, gosh. That is completely accurate. Where I watch TV, it's every commercial break is advertisements. I think when we look at between the two candidates and the Third, Rebecca Cooke, again, talking about her working-class upbringing, presenting this middle of the road, Van Orden has really, I think, gone on the offensive. He's targeted Cooke, calling her this political insider and really trying to present himself as someone who promotes police and is tough on the border, that sort of messaging.

CATHY WURZER: All right. Well, Hope, you know what? Thank you for taking time. I know you're really busy, and I'm sure you're going to do a lot between now and in two weeks from now and then even after the election, too. So pace yourself.

HOPE KIRWAN: [LAUGHS] Thank you.

CATHY WURZER: Thanks. Hope Kirwan is a Wisconsin Public Radio reporter based in La Crosse.