Cooler temperatures, possible rain to break up eerily warm October

CATHY WURZER: Of course, we've had this unusually warm air over us here for quite some time. I mean, it's been an incredibly warm and dry October. However, you might remember this very week last year, where parts of the state got more than a half a foot of snow. I do not remember this. I blocked it out. This year, temperatures 80 degrees, 85 here in the Twin Cities. But it's going to drop off quickly. For an update on all of this, MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner is here. Hey, how are you?

PAUL HUTTNER: I'm good, and that's why I have weather amnesia, Cathy, because I wiped the memory banks from that last year. And I'm reporting fall color peak here at the Weather Lab in the western Twin Cities. It's gorgeous out there. The reds, the oranges, the yellows, and a nice carpet on the ground. Those leaves starting to fall now, but, boy, it's pretty out there today.

CATHY WURZER: Fall color alert. I like that. So obviously, a little cooler today, but it has been, as I say, an incredibly warm fall.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. We are living through one of the warmest meteorological falls on record, Cathy. You remember September, 7 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities, the warmest September on record, closer to 10 degrees warmer than average in northern Minnesota.

And we're doing it again so far in October. Just check the numbers. 6.9 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities so far this month. And if we finish there, we'd be second in terms of October, the warmest October. We're going to cool down a bit, but still, it looks like with a week or so left to go in October, this will be one of the warmest meteorological falls on record.

And Climate Central does a great job of running the numbers for Minnesota, the NOAA numbers, long term. Fall is our second fastest warming season after winter. We've warmed an average of 4.6 degrees in the fall in the Twin Cities since 1970, and our frosts have moved about 22 days later, the first 32 degree temperatures. So this is an interesting trend. We're living it this year. And the other part you mentioned, it's so dry. 4 to 5 inches now, precipitation deficits across Minnesota since September 1.

CATHY WURZER: That is just not good news at all. Is there any hope of us making up that deficit? I'm thinking not.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, not in a big way. We are going to get some rain tomorrow, it looks like, across much of Minnesota, but probably a quarter to a half an inch with afternoon showers. So we're sunny. We're 57 today in the Twin Cities. It's 37 in Ely right now. Tomorrow, showers moving from west to east, midday through the afternoon into the evening.

We'll be 66 in the Twin Cities. As I said, about a quarter to a half an inch of rain. At least it'll settle the dust a little bit. And then we're sunny again Friday, Saturday, Sunday. 58 Friday and Saturday in the Twin Cities. 40s up North. 64 Sunday, the star day of the forecast. But it'll be windy Sunday.

CATHY WURZER: Well I'm wondering here, with the moisture and the temperatures that are in the 40s in some places, could there be snow showers for some of us?

PAUL HUTTNER: There might be a few up north, but it looks pretty limited, Cathy. I don't think we'd see anything in the way of accumulation just yet. But boy, this is a time of year when we're watching those maps out to 10 days, sometimes 14 days to see if there's a hint of big snow. So far, nothing yet.

CATHY WURZER: And I ask that just because I know out in Montana, they're having some snow, and that's kind of heading our way in terms of that system. So let me ask about the rain, because Sven Sundgaard, our colleague, says that it's possible we could get some moisture for Halloween?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It looks like Wednesday, the day before-- at least I just scanned the models again today. So we start warm again next week. We're in the 70s Monday and Tuesday, maybe 80 in southern Minnesota again on Tuesday. And then that system comes in Wednesday.

Looks like a chance of rain statewide at least. But most of the models I'm seeing are pushing that through by Thursday, which is Halloween. So it's still to me looks mostly dry for Halloween itself. 40s north, 50s south. That's pretty typical for temperatures in Minnesota for Halloween.

CATHY WURZER: OK, good. Just no big snow. I'm wondering here, speaking of snow. So we had El Niño, and now we're talking about La Niña. I can never remember if we see more moisture in a La Niña pattern, or is it colder, or both?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it trends both. Statistically, if you look at Minnesota winters in La Niña years, it trends colder and snowier than normal, about 70% to 80% of winters looking back. It's interesting to watch the Pacific Ocean temperatures now, though, because it's the cooler than average phase that it marks the La Niña.

So far, they're tracking a little warmer than forecast. So some forecasters I'm seeing saying, are we going to have a La Niña or a La Nada where we're really not that much colder than average? Really, all La Niña's in Minnesota do trend a little colder and snowier. But you have to keep something in mind here. First of all, the bar is low from last winter when we had the warmest winter on record. It's going to be colder and snowier than last year.

But climate change has warmed Minnesota about 5 degrees in winter since 1970, so we're also bucking that trend. Cathy, I think the common sense wisdom for this winter is it will be a more rigorous winter than we had last year, probably something closer to normal in terms of temperature and snowfall. Keep in mind, snowfall is about 51 inches for the Twin Cities, the average.

CATHY WURZER: Excellent. OK. Thank you. By the way, Climate Cast, I see you're talking to our friend Kenny Blumenfeld.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, Kenny is the greatest, as you know, with the Minnesota State Climate Office, and we're going to talk about a few things. This warm fall, the warm fall trends, and the warm winter trends, and also a little bit more about this winter outlook for Minnesota. How does it divide out between weak La Niña years and strong La Niña years, and what can we expect this winter? So we'll dig into it with a little more depth tomorrow on Climate Cast.

CATHY WURZER: Super fun. Weather geeking out. I love that.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, why not?

CATHY WURZER: Why not? OK. Say hi to Kenny for us, and I hope you have a good rest of the day.

PAUL HUTTNER: Will do. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.