Record-breaking warmth and a possible Halloween snowstorm
Snow on Oct. 31, 2023, means a chilly night for trick-or-treaters.
Luke Taylor | MPR
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Tuesday, in the metro area especially, was almost muggy — on Oct. 29. It was indeed record-breaking warmth for late October. MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joins MPR News host Cathy Wurzer with the numbers, plus the outlook for the rest of the week, which includes some rain and even a winter storm watch.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: Now, let's talk about the weather here, because you're going to be talking about this for sure tomorrow. Yesterday, it was warm, right? You went outside, and you thought to yourself, wow, it's just weirdly warm. Some places in southern Minnesota were around 80 degrees or so. Kind of like summer, right? But it was October 29, and it was record breaking warmth for late October. Here were some of the numbers plus the outlook for the rest of the week, which includes, finally, some rain and maybe even a winter storm is MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hey, how are you?
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, I'm good, Cathy. A forecast makes me want to drink, but yes, it's wild this week. A little whiplash for us.
CATHY WURZER: Well, I like weird weather, and so this is going to be a week for all of us here. OK. We had the record warmth yesterday. Just exactly how warm did it get?
PAUL HUTTNER: It did hit 80 in the Twin Cities. That was a record. Third record we actually set in about a 24 hour period, Cathy, because Monday, we hit 75. That tied the record from 1948. Tuesday, early morning, the low was 59. That beat the record high minimum, as we call it, of 56 set back in 2004. And then yesterday, that high of 80 in the afternoon.
So what a year it's been, right? Because we had the warmest winter on record, the wettest spring on record, and now, we're living through the warmest meteorological fall. September was the warmest on record, 6.9 degrees warmer than normal. October through yesterday, Cathy, 7.9 degrees. We are on pace right now for the third warmest October on record. Just a wild month and kind of two summers this year.
CATHY WURZER: That is so strange, I'm telling you. I'm wondering here, then, with the other shoe dropping, with these the rain snow chances that we're going to get, especially for our friends along the I-35 corridor from Hinckley all the way up the shore. What about the snow chances for them? What are the models saying?
PAUL HUTTNER: They look pretty good. The models have come around on a consensus solution for a narrow band of heavy snow tomorrow. It starts tonight in southeast Minnesota. There are going to be thunderstorms strong in southeast Minnesota. Some of those could make it up into the Twin Cities after midnight tonight. And then the whole package mixes and changes to snow tomorrow morning, Cathy.
It looks like the heaviest snow zone will be west and north of the Twin Cities. So from southwest Minnesota, maybe through Wilmer, St. Cloud, and then up through Hinckley, the Duluth area, the North Shore. That's where that winter storm watch is out for tomorrow. And most of the forecast models are saying we could see this band of snow produce one inch per hour rates. Now, the ground is warm. The first inch or so will melt, but it's probably going to overcome that tomorrow morning.
Generally, the models are saying about two to six inches of snow, Cathy. Maybe a couple in southwest Minnesota up through Wilmer and then two to six, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs, Hinckley, Duluth, the North Shore. Twin Cities, a mix of rain and snow, especially southeast. Probably little or no accumulation, eastern and southern Twin Cities.
But one to two inches possible in the northern and western Twin Cities. Just wild. Trick or treat time, the precipitation looks like it'll be ending from west to east, but it's going to be chilly. Around 40 the Twin Cities falling into the 30s, and there's going to be a good breeze tomorrow. By the way, Cathy, that wind gusting to 30 tomorrow in that snow zone, so it's going to be gnarly out there tomorrow morning.
CATHY WURZER: OK. What about election day weather? I'm curious about that.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it looks wet for Minnesota. Some scattered showers around, highs mainly in the 40s central and north, 50s southeast. It looks good nationwide, mostly dry, mild in the eastern US. Swing states, dry in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. There is a chance for some showers, but they look lighter in Wisconsin and Michigan. So I really don't think the weather's going to be a huge factor.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Say, before you go, Climate Cast. Are you talking about winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. In this case, interestingly, warmer winters over time and its trend on road salt use. Warmer winters actually have a lot more freeze thaw cycles, so you would think that we'd use less salt in a warmer winter, but that's not necessarily true. So we'll talk to somebody from MnDOT about that tomorrow on Climate Cast.
CATHY WURZER: Excellent. All right. Thank you, Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. And by the way, you can listen to Paul Monday through Friday, All Things Considered, with my friend Tom Crann.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, I'm good, Cathy. A forecast makes me want to drink, but yes, it's wild this week. A little whiplash for us.
CATHY WURZER: Well, I like weird weather, and so this is going to be a week for all of us here. OK. We had the record warmth yesterday. Just exactly how warm did it get?
PAUL HUTTNER: It did hit 80 in the Twin Cities. That was a record. Third record we actually set in about a 24 hour period, Cathy, because Monday, we hit 75. That tied the record from 1948. Tuesday, early morning, the low was 59. That beat the record high minimum, as we call it, of 56 set back in 2004. And then yesterday, that high of 80 in the afternoon.
So what a year it's been, right? Because we had the warmest winter on record, the wettest spring on record, and now, we're living through the warmest meteorological fall. September was the warmest on record, 6.9 degrees warmer than normal. October through yesterday, Cathy, 7.9 degrees. We are on pace right now for the third warmest October on record. Just a wild month and kind of two summers this year.
CATHY WURZER: That is so strange, I'm telling you. I'm wondering here, then, with the other shoe dropping, with these the rain snow chances that we're going to get, especially for our friends along the I-35 corridor from Hinckley all the way up the shore. What about the snow chances for them? What are the models saying?
PAUL HUTTNER: They look pretty good. The models have come around on a consensus solution for a narrow band of heavy snow tomorrow. It starts tonight in southeast Minnesota. There are going to be thunderstorms strong in southeast Minnesota. Some of those could make it up into the Twin Cities after midnight tonight. And then the whole package mixes and changes to snow tomorrow morning, Cathy.
It looks like the heaviest snow zone will be west and north of the Twin Cities. So from southwest Minnesota, maybe through Wilmer, St. Cloud, and then up through Hinckley, the Duluth area, the North Shore. That's where that winter storm watch is out for tomorrow. And most of the forecast models are saying we could see this band of snow produce one inch per hour rates. Now, the ground is warm. The first inch or so will melt, but it's probably going to overcome that tomorrow morning.
Generally, the models are saying about two to six inches of snow, Cathy. Maybe a couple in southwest Minnesota up through Wilmer and then two to six, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs, Hinckley, Duluth, the North Shore. Twin Cities, a mix of rain and snow, especially southeast. Probably little or no accumulation, eastern and southern Twin Cities.
But one to two inches possible in the northern and western Twin Cities. Just wild. Trick or treat time, the precipitation looks like it'll be ending from west to east, but it's going to be chilly. Around 40 the Twin Cities falling into the 30s, and there's going to be a good breeze tomorrow. By the way, Cathy, that wind gusting to 30 tomorrow in that snow zone, so it's going to be gnarly out there tomorrow morning.
CATHY WURZER: OK. What about election day weather? I'm curious about that.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it looks wet for Minnesota. Some scattered showers around, highs mainly in the 40s central and north, 50s southeast. It looks good nationwide, mostly dry, mild in the eastern US. Swing states, dry in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. There is a chance for some showers, but they look lighter in Wisconsin and Michigan. So I really don't think the weather's going to be a huge factor.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Say, before you go, Climate Cast. Are you talking about winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. In this case, interestingly, warmer winters over time and its trend on road salt use. Warmer winters actually have a lot more freeze thaw cycles, so you would think that we'd use less salt in a warmer winter, but that's not necessarily true. So we'll talk to somebody from MnDOT about that tomorrow on Climate Cast.
CATHY WURZER: Excellent. All right. Thank you, Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. And by the way, you can listen to Paul Monday through Friday, All Things Considered, with my friend Tom Crann.
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