How the 2024 election results could impact climate policy in the Midwest

NINA MOINI: Global leaders are meeting this week at the United Nations Annual Climate Conference to talk about how to slow climate change and prepare for its impacts around the world. A big question is what role the US will play now that Donald Trump is returning to the White House. The President-elect has denied that climate change is happening, and he's promised to once again withdraw from the climate treaty known as the Paris Agreement, like he did in his first term.

But states, local governments, and private companies are taking steps to move away from fossil fuels, which produce the greenhouse gases that cause climate change. So joining me now to talk about how the results of the 2024 election will impact that energy transition here in Minnesota is Kristoffer Tigue, Midwest reporter for Inside Climate News, based here in Minneapolis. Thanks for being here, Kristoffer.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Thanks for having me on.

NINA MOINI: Absolutely. I just want to give a little background for folks. There's federal policy set by Congress, and then state policies set by our state legislature. And right now, a lot of people are wondering how these policies will interact and where the power ultimately will fall. So Minnesota lawmakers did pass a law in 2023 that requires utilities to move to carbon-free electricity by 2040. Can you tell us, Kristoffer, where does the implementation of that law stand?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Sure, yeah. And to add to that, Nina, there's also a law that dedicated, I think, like $2 billion toward things like clean energy. So that's also a--

NINA MOINI: Sure.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: --Minnesota law. So those two together, I think, is kind of the heart of what makes up the state-level law. In terms of the legislation itself, they're largely safe. And what I mean by that is that they'd be very difficult to repeal. So it kind of depends on how you want to look at the interactions between the federal funding and the state funding. To my knowledge, Minnesota has dedicated state funds to these efforts, but those are often supplemented, if not the bulk of it coming from things like federal grants.

NINA MOINI: Hmm.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: So there may be some rearranging based on whether or not the federal money is slowed down in its rollout or, in some cases, future funding isn't as robust.

NINA MOINI: So some of it to be determined. Here at the state level, Republicans and Democrats, it looks like, will share control of the state House of Representatives when the next session starts coming up in January. So could this election result slow the rollout of any of the state's climate goals?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: You're talking about the Congress makeup or the Minnesota legislature makeup?

NINA MOINI: The state. Yeah, House of Representatives.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Yeah, right. Yeah, so the laws have already been passed. And so, again, in that sense, the money's been dedicated. The laws are in place. The rollout, there are some questions there. But largely, I would say that that has to do with things like state budgets.

New York and California are some of the old school states that have passed these, quote unquote, "climate laws" where they're requiring a transition. And even they have run into issues based on agreeing upon state budgets. And that's kind of where you could see Minnesota falling into the same kind of scenario, where if that sort of 57-67 split in the House, now you may not have as much agreement among the lawmakers. And Minnesota might have a harder time just passing some of its budgetary items.

NINA MOINI: Sure.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: But again, it has that dedicated funding, and so it's in a pretty good place.

NINA MOINI: Once it's dedicated, it can't be undone?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Not necessarily. It can't be undone. There are some strange workarounds where you can kind of direct your federal or state agencies on how to spend it-- memos and things like that.

NINA MOINI: Sure. So switching to the federal Inflation Reduction Act that also impacts states, can you talk about what climate projects are being funded through it here in Minnesota?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Sure, they kind of run the gamut. I mean, you've got things like solar panel manufacturers, battery manufacturers, electric vehicle manufacturers. Minnesota, in terms of the Midwest, they have largely been funding utility projects. So we're talking like utility scale. These are large solar farms, not so much wind, and then battery storage. So when the sun goes down every night or when it's cloudy, the batteries would kick into gear and supply the energy.

That transition is happening, and the money is largely spurring those investments. The thing that people should know about this federal funding from the Inflation Reduction Act is that it was really intended to spur private investments.

NINA MOINI: Hmm.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: The money that was estimated in the climate spending there-- I think it was like $370 billion-- a lot of that-- I would say most of that-- is the projected private company spending that's being spurred by the federal funds that are available. So whether or not we see a kind of chilling effect on some of these private companies that are spending is unsure. But Minnesota has received more than $700 million from the IRA since it was passed.

NINA MOINI: Is there a possibility that Congress could repeal the IRA?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: I have to couch my language. There's always a possibility.

NINA MOINI: Sure.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: It seems unlikely. There's a bigger chance just because it is looking like Republicans may have full control of the federal government in terms of having both chambers. Some of those House races are still being counted or recounted, but Republicans are leading in that. And so it looks as if they may take the House. And in that sense, it would be easier to repeal a law. But it's hard. It's just very difficult to repeal legislation in general. And with such slim majorities, it's not going to be a slam dunk for them.

NINA MOINI: Yeah.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: But Trump has been pretty vocal about wanting to, quote unquote, "claw" some of that back. And he does have some wriggle room when it comes to directing federal agencies. He has a lot of ability when it comes to approving budgets and cutting agency funding. And that's where we may see some of these conflicts arising is in those smaller battles like that.

NINA MOINI: Sure. A lot of it's just going to be keeping an eye on policies. And that's why it's so great to have your expertise as someone who covers the climate so closely. I do wonder from your perspective, what do the results of this election tell you about climate change as a voter issue?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Well, pollsters have been saying for quite some time that this is falling pretty low on the list. I mean, voters will respond that have been surveyed-- they do respond that they care about climate change. And they do say that it's an issue that's up in their priorities. But if you're looking at a list of 10, it's at the bottom of that 10, right? So people care about it, but they may not care about it as much as they care about things like abortion or about gun control. And those are the issues that-- immigration. Those are the issues that we're really seeing driving this election.

NINA MOINI: Sure.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Climate does play some role, though.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, so last question for you, just building off of that, how do you see or do you see climate activists, policy advocates, changing their strategies at all moving forward?

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Yeah, that's an interesting question. I do know that the Harris-Walz administration campaign was holding back on talking about climate issues.

NINA MOINI: Hmm.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: And that was a strategic choice by them. They saw how I was just explaining-- that there are these issues that are really at the forefront of voters' minds. They saw those polls, too, and they understood that. And so they were actually trying to play it really safe and not scare away potential voters. And some are now saying that they were maybe playing it too safe. And so whether or not we see a more aggressive move toward that is still to be seen. It's kind of too soon to tell.

NINA MOINI: Yeah.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: But it'll be interesting. That's for sure.

NINA MOINI: For sure. And we hope you'll come back and talk about that more with us. Thank you for sharing your reporting with us, Kristoffer.

KRISTOFFER TIGUE: Yeah. Thanks for having me on, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That's Kristoffer Tigue, the reporter for Inside Climate News, based in Minneapolis and covering the Midwest.