Rain moves across Minnesota with mild weekend on the way
A late fall sky at the Weather Lab.
Paul Huttner/MPR News
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It has been a mild November in Minnesota so far. There are signs drought is slowly lifting in parts of the state as we have had some moisture over the last couple of weeks. MPR News meteorologist Paul Huttner joins MPR News host Nina Moini with more on some upcoming rain, plus the rest of this week's weather forecast.
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: Well, it's been a pretty mild November in Minnesota so far. There are signs drought is slowly lifting in parts of the state, as we've had some moisture over the last couple of weeks. MPR News meteorologist Paul Huttner is here with more information on some upcoming rain, plus the rest of this week's weather forecast. Hi, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Thank you so much for being here. So let's talk about the rain first. We've had some pretty recently. What have you been seeing and how has that been helpful?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, and dare I call it a welcome rain? Because we are still in drought across much of Minnesota. So we'll take what we can get, especially before the ground freezes up here in the next month or so. Because we need to get that moisture into the soil. It is raining right now from Baudette International Falls, a narrow band all the way down through Central Minnesota-- Brainerd, Bemidji, Saint Cloud down to about Mankato, down to a little bit West of Albert Lea.
And under that band of rain so far, there's been about a quarter to a half an inch. Wilmer has had 0.43 and it's slowly sliding to the East. So it looks like the Twin Cities will see some rain. Light rain, though. I'd call this a weak to moderate system. It's about a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Later this afternoon, this evening in the Twin Cities, before it pulls out of here, Twin Cities will probably get a quarter of an inch or less. But those areas to the West, half an inch, maybe some lucky spots getting an inch of rain, Nina. We'll take the moisture wherever we can get it at this point.
NINA MOINI: Do you have a sense for how impactful that might be? Or is it just too soon to tell?
PAUL HUTTNER: No, it's pretty light. I don't think it'll be a big deal for us here for rush hour. But hey, if it's going to rain, it might as well be on a Wednesday, right?
NINA MOINI: [LAUGHS] Sure, yeah. Well, what are you expecting through the weekend? Any more rain?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so this system pulls out. We've got a couple of nice days ahead for Thursday. Friday, probably right into Saturday. 49 tomorrow, 52 in the Twin Cities Friday, 56 on Saturday. A little bit breezy out of the south. And then about 50 degrees on Sunday. So really, another nice mid-November stretch of weather here coming up as we head into the weekend.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, it's been feeling-- it's been so dark in the morning and at night. And then no snow on the ground. What are the chances that we'll see snow anytime soon?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, interesting you said that because that may change here in the next week or so.
NINA MOINI: OK!
PAUL HUTTNER: Next week looks active to say the least, Nina. There's a stronger storm that pulls into Southern Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday. Now, it looks like that system will come in as rain, but then the forecast models are moving it north up by Lake Superior and then stalling it out and letting cold air wrap in.
Some of the models-- in fact, most of them-- saying that rain will change to snow probably Tuesday into Wednesday. It'll be windy, it'll be much colder. Temperatures falling into the 30s, maybe even 20s. Both the European model and the American model suggest significant snowfall accumulation, especially west and north of the Twin Cities next week, and maybe in the Twin Cities, Nina.
This could change our landscape from this nice late fall green-brown to white by next week. So still a week out. We got to watch it. We can't pinpoint anything but the signs, the signals for a significant snowmaker are there in the middle of next week for much of especially central and northern Minnesota.
NINA MOINI: And isn't November typically a snowier month?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we get 6.8 on average in the Twin Cities in November. And we haven't seen a flake yet. So the odds are saying we've got some on the way here in the next couple of weeks.
NINA MOINI: And are we going to be undergoing La Niña this winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's a weak La Niña. NOAA will send an update on that tomorrow. But that typically trends toward a colder, snowier winter. Here's the thing, though. It's a weak event, so it may not be quite as strong in the forcing. And we still have that background hum of climate change and warmer winters in Minnesota.
Winters are about 5 degrees warmer on average since 1970. So my gut tells me this will be a near normal or maybe slightly above normal temperature-wise this winter, with a lot more snow than we had last winter. Of course, that's a low bar because we had the warmest winter on record and the least snowy in many areas. So I would say get ready for a real winter this year, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Oh, boy. All right. Well, that's good to know. What about-- our friends in Florida have been through a lot this hurricane season. Are they still facing those threats at this point?
PAUL HUTTNER: They are. Hurricane season, of course, still runs through November. The forecast models have been ginning up another storm in the Caribbean and turning it into a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico next week. It would be named Sara if it forms. And the forecast models have been strong.
But here's some good news, at least-- but these things go back and forth. Today's solutions are much weaker, but still bring a storm near the west coast of Florida, the Gulf Coast, toward the middle of next week. So we watch these things day to day, see how the models play out. Still some warm ocean water down there, so the potential is there. But at least today's solutions are much weaker, which would be great news because, boy, they need a break down there.
NINA MOINI: They sure do. How about Climate Cast this week? Do you want to give us a preview of what you have in store?
PAUL HUTTNER: Sure. And by the way, NOAA just came in today with the second warmest October on record globally. This will be the warmest year on record again in 2024. That makes 11 in a row, Nina, for warmest years on record.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Tomorrow, we'll be talking about Xcel Energy asking for a rate increase. They're spending it on grid upgrades and hardening grid for storms, things like that. What is it? What does it all mean? And how does it all fit with our changing climate in Minnesota? That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: Paul, thanks so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News Chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Thank you so much for being here. So let's talk about the rain first. We've had some pretty recently. What have you been seeing and how has that been helpful?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, and dare I call it a welcome rain? Because we are still in drought across much of Minnesota. So we'll take what we can get, especially before the ground freezes up here in the next month or so. Because we need to get that moisture into the soil. It is raining right now from Baudette International Falls, a narrow band all the way down through Central Minnesota-- Brainerd, Bemidji, Saint Cloud down to about Mankato, down to a little bit West of Albert Lea.
And under that band of rain so far, there's been about a quarter to a half an inch. Wilmer has had 0.43 and it's slowly sliding to the East. So it looks like the Twin Cities will see some rain. Light rain, though. I'd call this a weak to moderate system. It's about a 3 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Later this afternoon, this evening in the Twin Cities, before it pulls out of here, Twin Cities will probably get a quarter of an inch or less. But those areas to the West, half an inch, maybe some lucky spots getting an inch of rain, Nina. We'll take the moisture wherever we can get it at this point.
NINA MOINI: Do you have a sense for how impactful that might be? Or is it just too soon to tell?
PAUL HUTTNER: No, it's pretty light. I don't think it'll be a big deal for us here for rush hour. But hey, if it's going to rain, it might as well be on a Wednesday, right?
NINA MOINI: [LAUGHS] Sure, yeah. Well, what are you expecting through the weekend? Any more rain?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so this system pulls out. We've got a couple of nice days ahead for Thursday. Friday, probably right into Saturday. 49 tomorrow, 52 in the Twin Cities Friday, 56 on Saturday. A little bit breezy out of the south. And then about 50 degrees on Sunday. So really, another nice mid-November stretch of weather here coming up as we head into the weekend.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, it's been feeling-- it's been so dark in the morning and at night. And then no snow on the ground. What are the chances that we'll see snow anytime soon?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, interesting you said that because that may change here in the next week or so.
NINA MOINI: OK!
PAUL HUTTNER: Next week looks active to say the least, Nina. There's a stronger storm that pulls into Southern Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday. Now, it looks like that system will come in as rain, but then the forecast models are moving it north up by Lake Superior and then stalling it out and letting cold air wrap in.
Some of the models-- in fact, most of them-- saying that rain will change to snow probably Tuesday into Wednesday. It'll be windy, it'll be much colder. Temperatures falling into the 30s, maybe even 20s. Both the European model and the American model suggest significant snowfall accumulation, especially west and north of the Twin Cities next week, and maybe in the Twin Cities, Nina.
This could change our landscape from this nice late fall green-brown to white by next week. So still a week out. We got to watch it. We can't pinpoint anything but the signs, the signals for a significant snowmaker are there in the middle of next week for much of especially central and northern Minnesota.
NINA MOINI: And isn't November typically a snowier month?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we get 6.8 on average in the Twin Cities in November. And we haven't seen a flake yet. So the odds are saying we've got some on the way here in the next couple of weeks.
NINA MOINI: And are we going to be undergoing La Niña this winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's a weak La Niña. NOAA will send an update on that tomorrow. But that typically trends toward a colder, snowier winter. Here's the thing, though. It's a weak event, so it may not be quite as strong in the forcing. And we still have that background hum of climate change and warmer winters in Minnesota.
Winters are about 5 degrees warmer on average since 1970. So my gut tells me this will be a near normal or maybe slightly above normal temperature-wise this winter, with a lot more snow than we had last winter. Of course, that's a low bar because we had the warmest winter on record and the least snowy in many areas. So I would say get ready for a real winter this year, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Oh, boy. All right. Well, that's good to know. What about-- our friends in Florida have been through a lot this hurricane season. Are they still facing those threats at this point?
PAUL HUTTNER: They are. Hurricane season, of course, still runs through November. The forecast models have been ginning up another storm in the Caribbean and turning it into a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico next week. It would be named Sara if it forms. And the forecast models have been strong.
But here's some good news, at least-- but these things go back and forth. Today's solutions are much weaker, but still bring a storm near the west coast of Florida, the Gulf Coast, toward the middle of next week. So we watch these things day to day, see how the models play out. Still some warm ocean water down there, so the potential is there. But at least today's solutions are much weaker, which would be great news because, boy, they need a break down there.
NINA MOINI: They sure do. How about Climate Cast this week? Do you want to give us a preview of what you have in store?
PAUL HUTTNER: Sure. And by the way, NOAA just came in today with the second warmest October on record globally. This will be the warmest year on record again in 2024. That makes 11 in a row, Nina, for warmest years on record.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Tomorrow, we'll be talking about Xcel Energy asking for a rate increase. They're spending it on grid upgrades and hardening grid for storms, things like that. What is it? What does it all mean? And how does it all fit with our changing climate in Minnesota? That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: Paul, thanks so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News Chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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