March weather yo-yos back towards a spring storm
A major late-winter storm walloped southern and eastern Minnesota with heavy snow, howling winds and blizzard conditions on March 5.
Anna Haecherl | MPR News
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Another winter spring storm is taking aim at Minnesota. After a warm and sunny start to the week, snow could make its return to the southern part of the state. MPR meteorologist Sven Sundgaard joined Minnesota Now to explain.
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Audio transcript
[MUSIC PLAYING] NINA MOINI: It's our top story today. Another winter spring storm is taking aim at Minnesota. After a warm and sunny day yesterday, snow could be making its return. It's depending on where you are in the state. Joining us now with the very latest on this system is NPR Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. Thanks so much, Sven.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we had quite the divide across the state yesterday, and it's that big temperature contrast you want for a big storm-- 40-degree temperature difference yesterday from northern and southern Minnesota. It was 29 in Ely while Fairmont hit 70 degrees, and they got 8 inches of snow in Kabetogama. So just indicative of spring in Minnesota. We love March around here.
And we do have a pretty potent storm on the way, but pretty quiet yet today. If you have any errands you want to get done, no problem. Mix of clouds and sun, few rain and snow showers trying to get going across central Minnesota by later in the day, but still near 60 along the Minnesota-Iowa border and probably low 50s this afternoon for the Twin Cities, while northern Minnesota remains cooler, upper 30s to low 40s. We're already up to 46 right now in the Twin Cities.
NINA MOINI: All right. So things, I understand, are changing and evolving with this weather that's on the way out. What are you seeing now?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we've been warning people the last couple of days the Twin Cities was always going to be on the northwestern edge of this system in a very tight gradient and snowfall totals. So any movement one direction or the other was going to have big boom or bust potential. And so the big headline is that the vast majority of our forecast models are shifting southeast. So that means it's looking increasingly likely that the Twin Cities will see less and less snowfall.
But if you were in southeastern Minnesota-- looking at you, Rochester, Albert Lea, Faribault-- still definitely looking at a big snowfall potential. So we do have blizzard warnings from Worthington through Mankato, Albert Lea, and Red Wing. Winter storm watch for much of the rest of the area. That includes the Southeast Metro that was added yesterday, so Scott, Dakota and Washington counties. But Nina, I would look for those to probably be dropped and changed to winter weather advisories as we head into the afternoon with all these forecast model trends. But as it stands right now, Hennepin County, Ramsey County, and then back towards Hutchinson or so in a winter weather advisory. But again, all of these things are going to probably shift, these advisories, a little bit as we head into the afternoon.
We're going to see a wintry mix develop late tonight across portions of the state, but the main action is going to get going really early tomorrow morning. And it looks as though it's going to transition to heavy, wet snow pretty quickly. So we were concerned about a potential mix, maybe some freezing rain. It looks like southeastern Minnesota could see some sleet, light freezing rain to start, but a quick turnover to snow. Still looks like the heaviest potential, though, Fairmont through Mankato, Albert Lea, Faribault. That's where we could see 4 to 9-plus inches. I think we're going to see some spots in southeastern Minnesota, well south and east of the Twin Cities, that will end up with a foot. That won't be particularly common, but there will be some places, I think, that come in at that.
Right now, I would look at, if you're in Minneapolis, Saint Paul proper, within the 494, 694 Loop, maybe an inch or two, but it's very possible that we're going to end up with zero. Right now, 6 of the 10 forecast models that have updated this morning have the Twin Cities getting a half inch or less. But if you were in the southeastern suburbs, you are still on the northwestern edge of this system. I would bank on at least a few inches still. But again, that could change through the day.
But if you're in the Northwest Metro, St. Cloud, you may not get much of anything out of this.
NINA MOINI: You got to love a spring March-time storm. I'm glad you're going to be watching it close. What about the rest of the week, once we get through that? What are you forecasting?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, and I do want to emphasize that tomorrow, we're still all going to deal with a lot of wind, so that's why we have that blizzard warning south of the Twin Cities. Even in the Twin Cities, we could see 50-mile-an-hour wind gusts. And some models give us 55 to 60 mile-an-hour wind gusts along I-90. So remember that storm a couple weeks ago? They closed I-90 for a time. That could be entirely possible again tomorrow with these conditions.
So be aware of that. Also, some much-needed moisture out of this, a half inch to an inch and a quarter of liquid-equivalent water, which is great, because Minnesota, 69% of the state is still classified in at least moderate drought. So any water we get anywhere is welcome. But yeah, the rest of the week, it is going to be cooler. Tomorrow and Thursday, no surprise there. Probably 40s for southern Minnesota, 30s to the north. So this snow is going to be short-lived.
By Friday, we're already in the low 50s across the southern part of the state, 40s north, and then we're remaining mostly on the cooler side, closer to normal, still slightly above it. That means mostly 40s and 50s heading into the weekend. But we are also watching a potential system Sunday into Monday that could bring another round of rain and snow. So don't put away those shovels just yet.
NINA MOINI: Happy spring to everybody come Thursday. Thanks, Ben.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: You're welcome.
NINA MOINI: That's NPR News Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we had quite the divide across the state yesterday, and it's that big temperature contrast you want for a big storm-- 40-degree temperature difference yesterday from northern and southern Minnesota. It was 29 in Ely while Fairmont hit 70 degrees, and they got 8 inches of snow in Kabetogama. So just indicative of spring in Minnesota. We love March around here.
And we do have a pretty potent storm on the way, but pretty quiet yet today. If you have any errands you want to get done, no problem. Mix of clouds and sun, few rain and snow showers trying to get going across central Minnesota by later in the day, but still near 60 along the Minnesota-Iowa border and probably low 50s this afternoon for the Twin Cities, while northern Minnesota remains cooler, upper 30s to low 40s. We're already up to 46 right now in the Twin Cities.
NINA MOINI: All right. So things, I understand, are changing and evolving with this weather that's on the way out. What are you seeing now?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we've been warning people the last couple of days the Twin Cities was always going to be on the northwestern edge of this system in a very tight gradient and snowfall totals. So any movement one direction or the other was going to have big boom or bust potential. And so the big headline is that the vast majority of our forecast models are shifting southeast. So that means it's looking increasingly likely that the Twin Cities will see less and less snowfall.
But if you were in southeastern Minnesota-- looking at you, Rochester, Albert Lea, Faribault-- still definitely looking at a big snowfall potential. So we do have blizzard warnings from Worthington through Mankato, Albert Lea, and Red Wing. Winter storm watch for much of the rest of the area. That includes the Southeast Metro that was added yesterday, so Scott, Dakota and Washington counties. But Nina, I would look for those to probably be dropped and changed to winter weather advisories as we head into the afternoon with all these forecast model trends. But as it stands right now, Hennepin County, Ramsey County, and then back towards Hutchinson or so in a winter weather advisory. But again, all of these things are going to probably shift, these advisories, a little bit as we head into the afternoon.
We're going to see a wintry mix develop late tonight across portions of the state, but the main action is going to get going really early tomorrow morning. And it looks as though it's going to transition to heavy, wet snow pretty quickly. So we were concerned about a potential mix, maybe some freezing rain. It looks like southeastern Minnesota could see some sleet, light freezing rain to start, but a quick turnover to snow. Still looks like the heaviest potential, though, Fairmont through Mankato, Albert Lea, Faribault. That's where we could see 4 to 9-plus inches. I think we're going to see some spots in southeastern Minnesota, well south and east of the Twin Cities, that will end up with a foot. That won't be particularly common, but there will be some places, I think, that come in at that.
Right now, I would look at, if you're in Minneapolis, Saint Paul proper, within the 494, 694 Loop, maybe an inch or two, but it's very possible that we're going to end up with zero. Right now, 6 of the 10 forecast models that have updated this morning have the Twin Cities getting a half inch or less. But if you were in the southeastern suburbs, you are still on the northwestern edge of this system. I would bank on at least a few inches still. But again, that could change through the day.
But if you're in the Northwest Metro, St. Cloud, you may not get much of anything out of this.
NINA MOINI: You got to love a spring March-time storm. I'm glad you're going to be watching it close. What about the rest of the week, once we get through that? What are you forecasting?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, and I do want to emphasize that tomorrow, we're still all going to deal with a lot of wind, so that's why we have that blizzard warning south of the Twin Cities. Even in the Twin Cities, we could see 50-mile-an-hour wind gusts. And some models give us 55 to 60 mile-an-hour wind gusts along I-90. So remember that storm a couple weeks ago? They closed I-90 for a time. That could be entirely possible again tomorrow with these conditions.
So be aware of that. Also, some much-needed moisture out of this, a half inch to an inch and a quarter of liquid-equivalent water, which is great, because Minnesota, 69% of the state is still classified in at least moderate drought. So any water we get anywhere is welcome. But yeah, the rest of the week, it is going to be cooler. Tomorrow and Thursday, no surprise there. Probably 40s for southern Minnesota, 30s to the north. So this snow is going to be short-lived.
By Friday, we're already in the low 50s across the southern part of the state, 40s north, and then we're remaining mostly on the cooler side, closer to normal, still slightly above it. That means mostly 40s and 50s heading into the weekend. But we are also watching a potential system Sunday into Monday that could bring another round of rain and snow. So don't put away those shovels just yet.
NINA MOINI: Happy spring to everybody come Thursday. Thanks, Ben.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: You're welcome.
NINA MOINI: That's NPR News Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.
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