Poll finds bleak views of Iraq progress, confusion over next move

(AP) Minnesotans by an almost 2-to-1 margin say in a new poll that things aren't going well for the U.S. effort to bring stability to Iraq, but there's much less agreement on whether a quick exit is the right step.

Given an array of options in a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, only 15 percent of respondents said they favored an immediate withdrawal. That was matched by another 15 percent who would make no troop cutbacks until a stable government can be achieved in Iraq, a goal considered likely by only about one-third of respondents.

Another 28 percent said they'd like to see troop withdrawals begin in earnest this fall, with all troops out by next spring - a view that matches up with several Democratic initiatives in Congress.

The poll, conducted Sept. 18-23, surveyed 802 Minnesotans and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Much like in Congress itself, the poll found no simple majority in Minnesota for any single course of action. A plurality of 39 percent favored leaving a substantial number of troops in Iraq with a more limited mission of training Iraqi security forces and targeting Al-Qaida leaders, in keeping with last year's recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. That option also mirrors goals laid out last month by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

It's also similar to the stated positions of Minnesota U.S. Sens. Norm Coleman and Amy Klobuchar. However, Klobuchar, a Democrat, wants to set a congressionally mandated timeline for troop withdrawals, while Coleman, a Republican, does not.

Whether to set a withdrawal timeline has in recent weeks shaped up as the most fundamental political divide on the war.

"People are torn right down the middle," said David Schultz, who teaches American politics at Hamline University in St. Paul. "They know it's not going well. Now we get down to the question of what do we really have to do, and that's where you get the polarization."

Negative views toward the entire enterprise brought the poll's only definitive response, with 61 percent believing the effort is going somewhat badly or very badly - compared with 36 percent who answered somewhat well or very well.

Correspondingly, nearly two-thirds of respondents - 63 percent - said it was not too likely or not at all likely that the United States can establish a stable, Democratic government in Iraq in the next few years. Thirty-three percent said it was very likely or somewhat likely.