Farmers say wet fall didn't hurt size of harvest

It looks like rainy conditions for most of the fall haven't hurt the size of the Minnesota corn and soybean harvest.

The U.S. Agriculture Department today increased its estimate of the yield for those crops in Minnesota by two bushels an acre compared to last month's forecast. Even though crops are faring well, farmers are still struggling with the effects of too much rain.

Just a month ago, it looked like Minnesota farmers could see a disastrous fall harvest. That seems like a distant memory now for Harlan Marble.

"In the month of October, we rained 21 days out of 31," Harlan Marble said. "And that's very unusual."

That prevented farmers from getting in their fields for most of the month, and not only can wet weather delay the harvest, it can also damage crops. It often produces mold and other problems in standing crops, reducing yields. There's been some of those problems, but apparently not enough to reduce the size of the harvest.

The USDA is forecasting the second best corn yield ever in Minnesota; 172 bushels an acre. The soybean yield is estimated at 42 bushels an acre, a nearly 10 percent increase over last year. Together the two crops are worth about $7 billion to the state's economy, about half the state's farm income.

As Harlan Marble bounced along in his combine, he said the corn yield in the fields near the town of Minnesota Lake are a little below what was expected. He said the wet October was a pain, but the biggest weather problem for farmers came earlier in the year.

"What hurt the most was the cool summer," he said. "We didn't get the heat units to bring the crop along as it should have matured."

That prevented the corn ears from reaching their maximum size, and also meant the crop missed some other key stages of development, like the fall dry down. The corn kernels still held a lot of moisture when the October rains came, something that happened all over the U.S.

When the corn is wet at harvest it must be dried with propane heat so it won't spoil in the bin. Drying the corn can cost as much as 20 cents a bushel. That's about five percent of what the farmer sells the corn for.

"It's going to greatly reduce the possible profit that's in this corn market," said Darin Newsom, a grain analyst at Telvent-DTN.

Newsom said on the good side, corn prices have been rising recently, and that should help farmers pay for the extra drying cost. Normally a bummer crop would do the opposite; it would force grain prices down. But Newsom said those prices have been heading higher recently because of factors that have very little to do with agriculture.

"The U.S. dollar has really weakened," Newsom said. "And as the U.S. dollar weakens, that tends to bring money back into commodities as a buying opportunity on the idea that inflation is really going to take off."

Newsom said the theory is that a weak dollar will lead to more higher inflation, and that will in turn boost the price of commodities. He said it's happening right now in virtually every commodities market. Gold and oil probably get the most attention, but the buying demand also spills over to other items like grain. Newsom said it's unclear how long the commodities buying interest will last.

"It is a changing environment and commodities certainly seem to be taking advantage of it right now," he said.

The price of corn, soybeans and other crops are something that farmers like Harlan Marble follow closely as they harvest the year's crop.

"Harvest is a favorite time of the year because that's payday," he said. "All the accomplishments that you've done throughout the year show up. If Mother Nature shines on you a little you get a good crop, you've got a good payday."

He said it's been a little tough this year, with all the weather ups and downs. But then he said, at age 69, he's never seen a perfect weather year.

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