However bad the spill, oil's true cost to us is higher still

Oil spilling from BP's Deepwater Horizon drill rig has reached land despite vigorous efforts to disperse and deflect the oil away. With over 200,000 gallons a day continuing to drain from the uncapped well, the ecologic disaster is growing quickly and will be with us for years. As engineers struggle to stanch the flow originating 5,000 feet under water, others struggle to understand its cause.

Drilling platforms, whether on land or out at sea, include a blowout preventer -- a mechanical valve designed to shut off flow, avoiding the gushing spray of oil so iconic to the industry's early days. The blowout preventer on Deepwater Horizon failed. Why? Was it a design flaw, a manufacturing flaw, misuse or abuse? Should we be worried about other blowout valves in the Gulf and elsewhere?

Deepwater Horizon was working in 5,000 feet of water. This isn't a record (the deepest to date is 10,011 feet), but is very deep water by any standard and requires sophisticated equipment and procedures. Is 5,000 feet too deep to be safe? Unfortunately, we have experience with similar incidents in shallower waters and procedures for dealing with them quickly. We don't have experience in deep water, though we are getting that experience now. In a very real sense we are performing without a net. And, as it turns out, we are working without a plan; BP was not required to complete an environmental impact study.

President Obama has called this BP's disaster and claims it will foot the bill. But we've seen how oil companies foot the bill before. The Exxon Valdez spill occurred 21 years ago, but damage suits remain in litigation. What assurances do we have that BP will pay fully and in timely fashion? BP has already attempted to stave off damage suits by paying landowners and fishery businesses lump-sum settlements. Although they quickly discontinued that practice after pressure from the White House, BP's chairman, Lamar McKay, is on record claiming that this is not BP's spill. According to him, it's the responsibility of the Swiss corporation Transocean, the owner of the rig contracted by BP to do the drilling.

Politicians and pundits in favor of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) have repeatedly assured us that drilling technologies are advanced and the chances of a major spill are remote. But it takes only one accident, one failed piece of equipment in a massive enterprise, to spoil the environment for decades or longer. Can we truly balance risk and reward when drilling in unique natural settings?

We are stuck with a fossil fuel economy -- really a fossil fuel civilization -- for now. With that comes environmental hazard; massive alteration of the biosphere; gross distortion of national interests and international politics, and the prospect of major collapse when supplies no longer meet our needs. The alternatives (solar, wind, wave, geothermal and, yes, nuclear) will take time and money. Progress is being made. But until we adopt these energy sources as our future and make the sacrifices necessary to bring them to fruition, they will remain on the fringe -- good ideas, not global systems.

America grew up on oil. Our country is knitted by oil and gas lines, a massive infrastructure of oil production, storage, transport and sales. Whatever takes its place will require similar investment. It will cost us all. But so does oil. What is transpiring in the Gulf is a graphic reminder of the price we pay. For all the attention it's gathering, it is but a drop in the barrel of oil's cost to us all.

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Justin Revenaugh is professor of seismology at the University of Minnesota.

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