Update: Bloomington 15″! Snowfall range 10″ to 20″ by Monday

Update 9:20pm:

UM Climate Guru and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley sends word that we will likely break the all time state record for snowfall for February 20th!

With 15 inches of new snow at Bloomington, and much more to come I think it is safe to bet we will break the all-time state record for snowfall on February 20th ......that dates back to 1952 at Marshall when they received 16 inches. Observer at Hutchinson must be over 85 inches on the season so far.....

Mark

Thanks Mark... (I think!)

PH

Update 8:50PM:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

843 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0843 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M15.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Update 8:20pm:

0809 PM SNOW EDEN PRAIRIE M14.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED AMOUNT IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF

CITY.

0830 PM SNOW 4 NNE MAPLEWOOD M11.0 INCH RAMSEY MN

TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER SNOW REPORTED AROUND 730 PM. STORM TOTAL SO

FAR...

Evening radar trends:

[image]

Latest MSP radar loop shows southern edge of snowfall lifting north toward the metro.

One of two things may happen by midnight.

1) The back edge of precip shuts off snowfall (at least temporarily) as it moves into the metro.

2) The northward progress of the back edge stops as the snow axis reaches the "pivot point" of the storm. If that happens the snow bands could stall right over the metro, especially the northern metro.

Either scenario may fit with the idea of snow tapering off a bit after midnight. Precip has already ended for now in much of southern Minnesota.

Get the latest individual snowfall totals here.

Latest snowfall summary here. (Some totals may not be up to the minute)

Stay tuned!

PH

Update 7pm:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

643 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

0600 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON M13.0 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

Latest snowfall totals here.

The latest "Minnesota Snow Blitz" has been a little finicky, but is delivering on the promise of a wind driven heavy snowfall "event."

The storm was a little slow getting started, and produced some spotty snowfall coverage early. Since then, the storm has ramped up to full fury.

**Based on the storm's progression I am sticking to my forecast of 10" to 20" storm total snowfall in the heavy snow band, which I expect to run from the Minnesota River Valley through the south metro to near Red Wing.

-Snowfall has now reached 10" in some areas form the south metro to the Minnesota River.

Montevideo 10.5"

St. Peter 10"

Mankato 10"

Bloomington & Burnsville now 10" to 13"

-The storm's "deformation zone" is stretching out from east to west near the metro, and I still expect another 12 to 18 hours of accumulating snowfall, through noon Monday. The storm is about halfway over in many areas!

-The heaviest snowfall rates should come between now and midnight, as bands of heavy snowfall push up from southern Minnesota ahead of the storms upper air center, or "vorticity max."

Modles still cranking out a 10" to 18" total snowfall range at MSP Airport.

-Howling winds will create blizzard conditions in much of southwest and west central Minnesota. Wind gusts over 60mph have been recorded in South Dakota!

Blizzard and winter storm warnings remain in effect into Monday!

(click to enlarge)

Some people say never to tell Minnesotans not to drive; I am not one of those. Given the wind and intense snowfall rates and blowing snow it would be foolish to attempt travel tonight. There have literally been hundreds of accidents today, and dozens of injuries. Do not attempt travel tonight unless it absolutely urgent.

Here are some of the latest snowfall totals:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

607 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS OF 500 PM FEBRUARY 20-21 WINTER STORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET

CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE

FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------

9.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0445 PM

8.50 1 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 0430 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

8.30 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1038 AM

8.20 1 NW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0455 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

8.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0338 PM

7.00 2 NW REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0512 PM

7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0430 PM

7.00 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0400 PM

7.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0247 PM

7.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1117 AM

6.70 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM

6.50 SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 0338 PM

6.00 1 SW EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0430 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

6.00 OWATONNA MN STEELE 0430 PM

6.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0400 PM

6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0112 PM

6.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1229 PM

6.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 1038 AM

5.90 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM

5.80 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0444 PM

5.80 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 1023 AM

5.50 1 N PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0320 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

5.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0127 PM

5.50 SSW MONTEVIDEO MN CHIPPEWA 1038 AM

5.40 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0400 PM

HIGHLAND PARK

5.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1117 AM

5.00 1 SSW MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1038 AM

4.90 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0230 PM

4.80 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0400 PM

4.50 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0420 PM

4.50 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0245 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

4.40 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0330 PM

4.30 MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 0316 PM

4.30 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1200 PM

ONE HALF MILE WEST OF TOWN.

4.20 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0145 PM

4.10 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0316 PM

4.00 WINTHROP MN SIBLEY 0420 PM

4.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0152 PM

4.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1023 AM

4.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 1023 AM

4.00 1 S TRIMONT MN MARTIN 1023 AM

4.00 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 1023 AM

3.60 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1137 AM

3.50 2 N MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0445 PM

SNOWFALL SO FAR...

3.50 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0105 PM

3.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 1038 AM

3.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1023 AM

3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0445 PM

3.00 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0145 PM

3.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1242 PM

3.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 1229 PM

3.00 WASECA MN WASECA 1023 AM

3.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 1023 AM

NEAR HIGHLAND PARK

2.00 OAKDALE MN WASHINGTON 0302 PM

2.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0105 PM

0.24 INCHES OF MOISTURE

2.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1242 PM

1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1229 PM

1.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0512 PM

1.40 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0512 PM

1.20 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0445 PM

PH