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Study: Few Asian carp needed to establish foothold

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By JOHN FLESHER
AP Environmental Writer

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. (AP) -- Canadian scientists say a small number of Asian carp might be enough to establish a population in the Great Lakes, where they would pose serious threats to other fish and the region's economy.

In a paper published this month, Kim Cuddington of the University of Waterloo says mathematical models suggest there's a 50-50 chance of the invasive carp getting a foothold if just 10 find their way into one of the lakes. If 20 fish slip through, the probability jumps to 75 percent under certain conditions.

Cuddington says the amount of time needed for bighead and silver carp to establish a large population would depend on factors such the fish's age when they spawn.

She says it's unlikely that Asian carp can be kept out of the lakes forever.