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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Milder days ahead, slightly optimistic for a possible thaw next week?

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Nordic Wednesday

It's only Dec. 11 and this is already getting a little old.

Today's arctic breeze is brought to you by Canada, our neighbor to the north. Known for sending maple syrup and hockey players south, Canada's main winter export is brutal arctic air, and refreshing breezes in summer.

This has to stop. And it will.

The good news is temperatures begin to moderate as soon as tonight, when temps will hold steady or actually begin rising overnight.

The models differ on the magnitude of the coming temperature moderation, but all agree it will feel less Nordic in the coming days. The most optimistic model, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is even suggesting a thaw next week. We'll see.

In the meantime, our brutal car testing air mass hangs tough today over Minnesota. Hang in there.

609 spinout
Another spin out on metro freeway ramp this morning. Image: MNDOT

6 days at or below zero at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport so far this December

12 sub-zero days at MSP all of last winter

Dec. 25 the first sub-zero day last winter

609 wsx2
Image: Twin Cities NWS

Moderation on the way

The bad news is it's dangerously cold today. The good news is temps will begin to moderate as soon as tonight. Here's a look at the forecast for steady to rising temps overnight tonight, as the core of arctic air begins to retreat from Minnesota.

609 wsk1
Image: Weatherspark

Model opinions differ on how much we'll arm in the coming days. The stingy Global Forecast System model says 15 degrees Thursday, but the North American Mesoscale Forecast System and Euro are more optimistic, with 20s in the forecast by Thursday afternoon. Go Euro!

609 euro
Image: Weatherspark

Signs of a potential thaw?

I'm not sold just yet, but the more optimistic European model is hinting at a more vigorous warm up than other models next week. The Euro cranks out two days above freezing next Wednesday and Thursday with temps as high as 37 degrees.

609 euro thaw
Image: Weatherspark

To be honest, the GFS has done a better job lately at handling temps and snow than the usually trusty Euro. But the chart above is nice to look at, and a frigid weather guy can dream right? Let's see if the afternoon Euro output backs off or if the GFS warms up to the notion of a potential thaw next week.

Watching Christmas

I'm still keeping an eye on temps for next week as we approach Christmas. The GFS still favors potential snow around Dec 19 and 20, with a pre-Christmas cold shot followed by moderating temps by Christmas.

609 16 day
Image: NOAA GFS via IPS Meteostar

Stay tuned, and stay warm!