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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Arctic sideswipe brings another chilly week, crippling East Coast snow storm

Image: University of Illinois

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Dead of winter

Welcome to the the coldest two weeks of winter historically in Minnesota and the United States.

It's not a big shock to see sub-zero temps on the weather maps this week. This winter is delivering on the promise of arctic cold, and this week will be no different as the pattern we've been locked in since Dec. 6 hangs tough for now.

  • 24/7 degrees - average high/low temps at Minneapolis-St. Paul International airport this week (average temps warm 1 degree next week)

  • -7.3 degrees temps vs. average at MSP Airport in December

  • -4.6 degrees temps vs. average so far in January

650 sfc 2
Image: University of Illinois

Cold waves

Our cold comes in waves this week. You can see how Minnesota is at the leading edge of the incoming arctic air mass on the map above. Tired of purple on the weather map? Me too. But this is Minnesota, and it is mid-January. Par for the course.

650 wxs
Image: Twin Cities NWS

The cold comes in waves this week, and with it a few clippers to keep our snowy landscape fresh. That's a bonus for many Minnesotans. Plenty of snow for winter recreation.

The next clipper rolls in late today and this evening with another shot of 1 inch to 2 inches of snow in most areas. Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) model idea on snowfall coverage tonight.

650 snow 1
Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com

This will be the first of a series of three potential clippers in a northwest flow pattern the next week.

650 clippers
Image: NOAA via Iowa State University

Snow cover adds up

There's a hefty snow pack in Minnesota with as much as 28 inches reported at Finland at the Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center on the ridge above the North Shore.

The Twin Cities sports a respectable 10 inches. Here's the latest snow depth map from NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

650 snow depth
Image: NOAA

One interesting pattern here. While impressive in Minnesota, the snow cover dwindles rapidly as you move south and west. Sioux Falls, S.D., has just 1 inch on the ground, with a trace at Des Moines, Iowa. The ground is bare across most of western Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas.

This may be meteorologically significant in the coming weeks. If the snow cover pattern holds, any shift in winds to the west or southwest will bring a rapid warm up, and eat away at the southwest edge of snow cover in Minnesota.

The forecast favors a continued northwest flow for now, but this is something we'll have to watch.

East Coast snow storm

The big national weather story today on your late TV newscast will be the east coast snow storm winding up. You'll see plenty of corporate style promotional briefings and media hype on this one.

The most important fact is, this storm will have a big impact in many big eastern cities tonight and tomorrow. Keep a close eye on potential delays if you're planning any travel out east in the next 48 hours.

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Image: flightstats.com

Washington, D.C., forecast: boom or bust potential?

As has been the case this winter, Washington, D.C., will ride the razor's edge rain/snow line with this storm. It was all rain in Washington this morning, but enough cold air should mix in to change precip over to heavy wet snow as the day wears on.

It's always tough to pull enough cold over the Atlantic to get snow cranking in D.C. Don't be shocked if some areas very close to or just south of the nation's capital get more rain than snow with this system.

Capital Weather Gang has a good summary of a changing forecast for D.C.

6:25 a.m. update: After reviewing the latest models, radar and temperature trends, we’re slightly lowering the expected snowfall for the immediate metro region and points south (from 5-8″ to 4-7″, which was our original forecast yesterday). We've also slightly increased the bust potential given these changes. Models have shifted the heaviest simulated snow just north of D.C., and temperatures are running a bit warmer than expected.

By far the bigger impacts from this storm will be felt in Philly and New York City/Long Island. A good 8 inches to 14-plus inches should snarl travel at airports and along the Interstate 95 corridor.

Here's the NAM model's idea on where the heaviest snow band sets up, and swath of a foot or more from Philly through New York City and Long Island.

650 ec snow
Image: wxcaster.com

Stay warm, and stay tuned!