Feels like April, shower chances increase but drought and fire threat linger
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The winds of April blow again today across Minnesota.
Today's breezes are a bit cooler than yesterday's warmest day in six months. Eighty-two degrees in Madison, Minn., and 70s in the Twin Cities on April 9? Not bad for the Land of 10,000 Snowflakes.
This spring it's a dry wind so far. Get set for another day of high fire danger and red flag warnings across southwest Minnesota.
Fire ... Bad!
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The verbiage is borderline alarming from the Sioux Falls, S.D., National Weather Service today. That seems appropriate considering fast moving wildfires are a threat when winds gust to 30 miles per hour and humidity drops to around 20 percent this afternoon.
Here's the attention getting wording on the extreme fire danger for southwest Minnesota from the Sioux Falls NWS.
LINCOLN-LYON-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKEBENTON...IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE
428 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
...EXTREME FIRE DANGER...
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS OR A VERY LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF GRASSES...AND OTHER DRY ORGANIC MATERIAL ON THE GROUND...INDICATE THAT CRITICAL BURNING CONDITIONS EXIST. A FIRE WILL START EASILY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LARGE AND SPREAD QUICKLY BECOMING ERRATIC WITH EXTREME BEHAVIORAL CHARACTERISTICS. NO OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
Drought hangs tough
When we left you last fall at freeze-up, the southern half of Minnesota was abnormally dry or in drought. Most of the slightly above average snowfall ran off as usual, and couldn't soak into still frozen soils this spring.
Today's latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota shows what we expected last fall -- dryness persists in the southern half of Minnesota. Moderate drought covers about 18 percent of southwest Minnesota, with 45 percent of the state in drought or on the verge with "abnormally dry" conditions, including the metro.
Rain ... Good! April showers ahead?
The old weather saying goes "When in a drought, don't forecast rain." Stuff like that sounds great, and usually works, until it doesn't.
Minnesota's prospects for rain increase slightly Friday and more so by Saturday morning. Here's a look at the next low pressure system riding in Saturday that looks to deliver a quick hit of rainfall.
Overall the next two weeks look wetter, but may still deliver just average rainfall. Minnesota looks to ride the edge of a wetter pattern to the east. The bast chance of an inch of rain or more in the next week appears to be in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. Chicago may pick up soaking rains in the next week.
We enjoy three more days in the 60s through Saturday. That makes seven days in a row with temps at or warmer than average. Temperatures for the month of April so far climb back to near average by Saturday.
A slight shot at showers rolls through Friday, with a better chance Saturday.
Cooler days ahead
Next week looks cooler as Canadian flow returns. Sunday's cold front will be noticeable and temps will hover mostly in the 40s through next Wednesday with a warming trend late next week.
The longer range outlook suggests a return to milder weather with above average temps featuring more consistent 60s and possibly some 70s starting Easter Weekend.
A cool few days followed by milder temps and throw in some more April showers? You might be forgiven if you though it almost looks like spring in Minnesota.