Classic June, watching Superior’s lake effect

Welcome to June in Minnesota.

Mild sunny days with fair weather cumulus drifting lazily overhead. Starry nights in the 50s and 60s with low humidity and good sleeping weather. Occasional ferocious tropical downpours with flash flooding on your local creek. A billion new mosquitoes invade your back yard.

This is what passes for the start of summer in these parts.

This week is pretty typical for June in Minnesota. Mixed sun and a few scattered showers and storms are reintroduced into the forecast the next few days. The good news? Rainfall looks spotty and not as heavy as last weekend's multi-inch deluge.

Right now Sunday looks like the drier, sunnier day this weekend with a fresh northeast breeze.

Here's a look at the next frontal system riding slowly in for the west. It stalls over Minnesota this weekend, bringing chances for occasional showers and a thunderstorm, but probably no severe weather.

Overall rainfall totals look to be an inch or less in eastern Minnesota, with some heavier totals out west. Drought stricken Kansas get another (welcome) soaking.

Tricky timing

Rainfall timing the next few days will be tricky. The front kicks off showers and thunderstorms in western Minnesota Thursday. That batch may fade as it approaches the metro Thursday evening. Then it's scattered weather chaos into the weekend with random, tough to predict localized showers popping up at different times.

The European forecast model seems to best capture the nature of occasional showers with some sunny hours in between.

Overall my read of the maps suggests it will rain at your house about 20 to 30 percent of the time from Thursday evening through Saturday, with more dry hours than rain overall. Don't cancel that barbecue just yet, but have a Plan B if the skies open up suddenly. It will feel cooler this weekend than Friday.

Drying out a little

It's been nice to string together a few dry days after the weekend deluge. Days like this usually evaporate about a quarter of an inch from soils in Minnesota. String together a few dry days and you can begin to dry soggy soils and watch high creeks and lakes ease back a bit.

Here's a look at Wednesday's estimated evaporation rates in the Upper Midwest from the University of Wisconsin Ag Weather site.

University of Wisconsin

Cooler, and sunnier by the Lake

Early summer is peak lake-effect season near Lake Superior. This time of year features some of the highest temperature contrasts between the still icy waters and the rapidly warming land mass. Higher pressure over cold water triggers lake breezes on sunny calmer days as cool air pushes inland.

Here's a closer look at the lake-effect, as it suppresses cumulus formation in areas near the lake. Notice how the cumulus field is impressive inland. The colder lake air intrusion means little lift for cumulus near the lake shore. Here's NASA's 250 meter resolution MODIS Terra shot Wednesday afternoon. Yellow arrows highlight the "lake-breeze boundary."

The result? A cool but sunny sky near the big lake.

Don't forget the jacket!