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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Riding the flood crest; weekend rain forecast eases?

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The rainfall numbers are staggering. But the bigger picture scope and human perspective on the summer flood of 2014 is even more gripping.

Rainfall numbers on a page can't begin to describe the human element of the flood misery. Drowned crops are lost. Houses washed away. Basements full of storm and sewer water. Roads closed under rising rivers. Overflowing lakes with lost business revenue and recreation opportunities.

Welcome to the "No Wake Summer of 2014."

The bright side? I know some who have enjoyed the no wake lake that is Minnetonka lately. I had a chat with several friends as we putted along in a large boat on the lake near Gale Island Friday night.

huttner.lake

"Wouldn't it be cool to have a no wake day on Minnetonka once a week?" I proposed. The answers were surprisingly positive.

Maybe it's like the switch to four lanes from three along Interstate 94 over the Mississippi River after the Interstate 35W bridge collapse. Hardship can trigger good ideas that may stick long after the hardship passes.

I am again reminded we are a resilient and innovative tribe in Minnesota.

  • 25.32 inches of precipitation so far in 2014 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

  • Wettest year on record so far

  • 10.85 inches of rainfall at MSP so far in June

  • Second wettest June on record

  • 82 inches additional rainfall ties the wettest June on record (11.67 inches in 1874)

rain.noaa

Cautiously optimistic

The forecast for avoiding another shot of heavy multi-inch weekend rains looks a little better than it did 24 hours ago. The latest model trends suggest a more northerly storm track.

That may not be good news for the Red River Valley and northern Minnesota, but it may spare the metro another 3-plus inch rainfall in some areas.

The next incoming low pressure wave appears to be taking aim more at northern Minnesota this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has backed off on rainfall totals slightly, and shifted the bulk of the heaviest rainfall to the northwest over Alexandria, Minnesota, and the Red River Valley.

If this holds, we may escape with closer to an inch of rain (or less?) around much the metro this weekend while 1 to 3 inches-plus falls to the northwest.

Here's the somewhat improved weekend forecast from the the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

wspark.euro

Translation? More summer heat and humidity as dew points climb toward the tropical 70 degree mark by Sunday. Fewer hours of tropical, potentially flooding rainfall around the metro.

I still expect a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, but a "capped" atmosphere over the metro may spare us from constant, torrential downpours of weekends past.

Weather fingers crossed for flood-weary Minnesotans.