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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Bill Endersen

A warmup coming for the weekend

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Wednesday started out as a chilly one, at least by July standards, with a low of 54 degrees in the Twin Cities and just 42 up at Embarrass, Minnesota.

While we have been cool, the southwestern desert has been even hotter than usual. An excessive heat warning remains out for areas in and surrounding Death Valley. Las Vegas hit 112 on Tuesday while Furnace Creek in Death Valley reached 125 and is about the same today.

At the other end of the country, Tropical Storm Arthur is tracking slowly northward at 6 miles per hour and is beginning to pull away from Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 7o mph, just shy of the 74 mph mark produced by a hurricane. It is a pretty sight from space, though.

July 2 - Arthur satellite
Tropical Storm Arthur is a lovely swirl over the Atlantic.

Arthur is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday as it tracks over the water toward the eastern Carolinas. The fragile Outer Banks, heavily booked by holiday travelers for the long Fourth of July weekend, are likely to be hit hard by very strong winds, heavy rain and pounding surf by early Friday.

July 2 - Arthur fcst track
The Outer Banks have put themselves in harm's way for many hurricanes. National Hurricane Center

Heavy rain from Arthur will stay mostly offshore over the next few days and will aim for Nova Scotia and then Newfoundland, but enough will spread inland to cause problems by the weekend, especially in the Mid-Atlantic States and southeastern New England.

In contrast, the Upper Midwest looks mostly dry into Saturday morning.

July 2 - 3 day rainfall ending 7A Saturday
One model showing 3-day forecast precipitation ending 7 a.m. Saturday. NOAA

Our day has been a delight after some morning clouds moved out. Popcorn cumulus over the north have been about the only weather feature.

July 2 - MN vsbl sat
The low morning clouds slid to the south and gave way to pleasant sunshine. NOAA

By Friday, scattered thunderstorms will break out across the Dakotas ahead of a warm front and might get into western Minnesota late in the day. For eastern Minnesota, storms should hold off until after midnight if they reach here at all.

July 2 - Friday fcst map
Thunderstorms on Friday should be mainly in the Dakotas until later in the day. NOAA

By the time the actual weekend rolls around, there will be a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday and a better chance on Sunday, mainly later either day after diurnal heating.

Some severe weather might be a possibility Sunday afternoon or evening, but so far the Storm Prediction Center has not posted any risk areas.

Temperatures will warm day by day through the holiday weekend. Many highs on Sunday will be well into the 80s, and for many of us it could become the hottest day so far this year. The warmest temperature in the Twin Cities has been 87 back on May 30.