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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Top 5 weather Wednesday, drier 2nd half of summer?

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You may want to use that floating holiday Wednesday.

If you like sunshine, lighter winds and comfy humidity Wednesday may be in the the top 5 weather days of the summer. Now if we can just do something about those mosquito swarms showing up on Doppler.

76 degrees high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Tuesday at 2:19 p.m.

32 mph peak wind gust from the west

1708 gfk
Red River Valley NWS

Free Canadian AC

Minnesotans have a love-hate weather relationship with our Canadian neighbors to the north. We applaud days like this with a fresh northwest breeze and low humidity. We cringe at the relentless invasion of sub-zero air in winter, when the only thing between the North Pole and Lake Calhoun is a barbed wire fence at the border.

Hey anyplace that spawned Jim Carrey, Michael J. Fox, Mike Myers and Neve Campbell can't be all bad right?

Give your Canadian neighbor a hug today, eh?

Check out the blissfully drier air pumping in from Canada with dew points in the 40s advecting (blowing) southeastward on the fresh northwest breeze.

1708 dews
College of Dupage

Brief respite: Humidity and storms return by Thursday night.

We enjoy weather perfection Wednesday as pleasant high pressure drifts lazily overhead. By Thursday Minnesota works around the back side of the high. Southerly winds bring "return flow" and moisture as dew points climb again. By Thursday night, scattered thunder storms once again roam the Upper Midwest.

1708 allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

Scattered storms rumble Thursday night into Friday, but the latest trends may suggest a drier weekend overall. here's the Euro solution. Stay tuned.

1708 kky3
Weatherspark

Drier 2nd half of Summer 2014?

Considering the wettest year on record through June, and the wettest June on record statewide it wouldn't be a stretch to see a drier 2nd half of summer.

Some numbers:

  • 12.02 inches rainfall since June 1st at MSP Airport

  • +6.88 inches vs. average

  • 6.25 inches average rainfall for 2nd half of summer

  • 1.49" Global Forecast System 16-day rainfall output at MSP Airport (Tuesday a.m. 12z run)

Overall the trend appears to favor either northwest flow (cooler & dry) or a more northward displacement of the jet into Canada for the next 2 weeks. Both solutions favor average to slightly below average rainfall for Minnesota with heavier rains south.

1708 7 day
NOAA

Here's the GFS 16 day totals.

1708 16
IPS Meteostar

The longer range forecast for the next six weeks of summer is anybody's guess. The jet stream has favored a persistent southern track over Minnesota so far this warm season. If that continues, more heavy rain could return. If it finally lifts north, we could get a break from the Summer Monsoon.

Stay tuned.