Tale of two summers?

Grab a Dome Dog and a bucket of popcorn folks. It's halftime for summer in Minnesota.

How did that happen anyway?

This week marks the mid-point of meteorological summer, which runs from June 1 to Aug. 31. Yes, we meteorologists march to a different drummer. The climatological reality is that June through August are the three warmest months of the year on average. Thus the term "meteorological summer."

So what's the score for the first half of Summer 2014? And what's the outlook for the second half?

Some numbers so far:

• +0.6 degrees temperatures vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in June

• -3.7 degrees temperatures vs. average at MSP so far in July

• 13.18" rainfall in the Twin Cities metro area since June 1

• +7.03" vs. average rainfall so far this meteorological summer

• 27.65" precipitation (rain and snow) so far in 2014

• Wettest year on record so far at many Minnesota locations

• 5 weeks until the start of the Minnesota State Fair

Swamped: Extreme Upper Midwest rainfall this summer

No doubt about it. You sump pump, wet basement or surging neighborhood creek or lake are all telling you the same story. It's been way too wet in these parts so far this summer.

Here's a clip from the narrative from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's June State  of the Climate report released Tuesday.

A significant portion of the contiguous U.S. — parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, and the Great Plains — had above-average precipitation during June. Eight states had one of their 10 wettest Junes on record, with Minnesota being record wet for the month. The 7.75 inches of precipitation averaged across Minnesota was 3.64 inches above the 20th century average, marking the wettest month of any month for the state, surpassing July 1897 and June 1914 when 7.32 inches of precipitation was observed. In Canton, South Dakota, 19.65 inches of precipitation fell during June, setting a new record among all months for any location in the state, according to the South Dakota State Climatologist.

Take a step back and what do you get? The wettest June on record for several Minnesota locations, and top 15 spots for many others. Here's the soggy June rainfall data for several locations in MPR Land from NOAA.

Summer's 2nd half: Warmer and drier?

Let's face it; it wouldn't be too much of a statistical stretch to see the second half of summer come up drier and warmer that the first. That said, there are some signs I see that may indicate a more old fashioned second half of summer for Minnesota.

Translation? More 90-degree days (we've managed only one so far), more sunny days, less rainfall and more general Minnesota summertime weather bliss. Lord knows we're due after the rigorous, even brutal weather in the first half of 2014.

In the short term, the jet stream appears finally ready to give up it's reluctant grip on it's unseasonably southern track over Minnesota. The jet shows signs of slipping north into Canada next week, and taking the cold air with it as a high pressure heat dome builds over the southwestern United States.

The resulting shift in the jet stream will bring much warmer air into Minnesota. The Rockies and Upper Midwest will be the epicenter for much warmer than average temperatures by early next week.

We could see our first real string of 90+ degree heat by next week. Check out the Global Forecast System's 16-day numbers, which continues to build on the notion of a potentially extended heat wave next week.

The shorter term forecast favor a string of really, really nice days into the weekend.

It may be too early to say if the coming warming trend will continue for the rest of summer. But the next two weeks look like they may feature some of the best weather of summer so far.

Will we get our usual dose of 90 degree heat-on-a-stick during the 2014 Minnesota State Fair run which is just five weeks from Thursday?

Stay tuned.