Mixed bag weekend, 2014 severe weather drought

"When in a drought don't forecast rain." -- Anonymous

"The trend is your friend." -- Craig Edwards

Those two tried and true sayings will get a workout by Sunday across Minnesota. Our dry spell continued this week, but a weak weather disturbance will likely trigger a few scattered showers and thundershowers from west to east across Minnesota this weekend.

Here's a look at the maps, our Great Lakes high pressure wedge should provide a nice Saturday. Then a weak front rides in from the west with increasing showers and a few thunderstorms by Sunday into Monday.

Timing may be difficult with any scattered thundershowers this weekend. If the ridge holds strong, most of the rain could be pushed back into Sunday night or Monday for the metro. Another nice summer weekend?

What a concept.

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Wanted: rain

If you would have asked me a month ago I would have said more rain is the last thing we need. But as is the trend in recent years, somebody seems to have shut off the rainfall spigot as July and August rolled around.

Many areas in southern Minnesota have seen less than half an inch of rain since July 12. Now my MPR News colleague Dr. Mark Seeley is getting word from southern Minnesota farmers that rain is needed soon in southern Minnesota.

Here's more from Mark in this week's Weather Talk newsletter.

Most of the state was drier than normal during July, many places 1 to 2 inches less than average for the month.  Thanks to some intense thunderstorms there were some wet spots, including Grand Portage with 6.31 inches, Wadena with 7.78 inches, and Chaska with 5.05 inches.  The drier than normal rainfall pattern of July caused Minnesota crops to deplete the soil moisture supplies significantly, so that by the end of the month many areas were showing less than normal values of stored soil moisture.  Many areas of the state would welcome appreciable rainfalls during the first two weeks of August.

Topic:  Concerns at 2014 Farmfest

Many farmers were concerned about August rainfall at this year?s Farmfest as southern agricultural areas of the state were drying out.  Additional rainfall is needed to maintain good yield prospects for late planted corn and soybeans.  In addition some farmers were concerned about early frost in the fall which might prevent crops from fully maturing.  There are no indications that Minnesota will be threatened by early frost this year, but it is a concern nevertheless.

There is widespread acceptance that Minnesota's climate is changing and farmers are adapting. Crop insurance has become more commonly used, as has conservation tillage to protect the soil from erosion and better preserve stored soil moisture.

Rainfall forecasts over the next seven days look spotty. The most favored areas to pick up a half inch to 1 inch of rainfall appear to be in western Minnesota.

Overall the next week looks fairly stable across most of Minnesota. The best chance of rain comes Sunday and Monday. Another week of highs near 80 and reasonable dew points?

A (weather) guy could get used to this.

2014 severe weather drought

Now that's the kind of drought I can support.

It's been a ridiculously busy weather year through June across Minnesota. Polar Vortex. Spring monsoonal deluge. Flooded lakes and rivers. No wake zones.

But oddly enough the heavy rains of early summer came without a lot of severe weather. Thanks for small favors. The Twin Cities NWS has the read on the reduced number of severe weather warnings issued this year.

Iselle hits Hawaii as tropical storm

The big island of Hawaii got off slightly lucky with Iselle. The storm weakened below hurricane force, but still caused some significant damage. Iselle was only the second tropical storm to make landfall on the Big Island.

Here's more from Weather Underground's Jeff Masters.

Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. The Big Island's other tropical storm was an unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall. Iselle is just the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to make a direct hit on any Hawaiian Island since accurate records began in 1949. Iselle is bringing torrential rains to the Big Island, where a rain gauge near Pahala indicated rain rates at nearly 4 inches per hour. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for this area, and all of the Hawaiian Islands are under a Flash Flood Watch today. It is too early to assess what damage Iselle may have done, but the NWS reported roofs flying off and downed trees in Hawaiian Paradise Park, and at least 21,000 customers were without power early Friday morning on the Big Island. Some peak wind gusts and rainfall amounts on the Big Island so far from Iselle, as of 11 am EDT (5 am HST) Friday:

Hilo Airport: 32 mph gusting to 54 mph at 11 pm HST, 2.33" of rain
Kona Airport: 32 mph gusting to 45 mph at 1:53 pm HST
Bradshaw AFB: 23 mph gusting to 43 mph at 5 am HST, .23" of rain

The winds on top of the highest point in Hawaii, the Big Island's Mauna Kea, elevation 13,796' (4,205 m), gusted up to 72 mph this morning at the University of Hawaii 88" telescope.

Five stations on the windward side of the Big Island had received at least 10" of rain in 24 hours as of 5 am HST Friday, according the NWS Hawaii rainfall summary:

Hakalau: 10.70"
Pua Akala: 10.19"
Saddle Quarry: 11.39"
Glenwood: 10.63"
Kulani NWR: 11.19"

Have a great weekend!