Summer breezes, steamy State Fair opening weekend?

It's amazing how comfortable we can get in Minnesota with a run of near perfect weather.

Gone are the days of your local meteorologist blaring about bitter polar vortexes, train echoes on radar and record river and lake flood levels. Instead it's a steady drum beat of sunny, hazy days with highs in the low 80s and gentle breezes.

Yes weather fans, this is what it's like to live in San Diego in summer, or Tucson, Arizona, in spring and fall.

This form of "weather deprivation" does have its advantages. Like a trip to the relative silence of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area refines our sense of hearing, our senses become a little more fine tuned to subtle shifts in weather.

You'll notice some subtle changes in our forecast over the next few days. It beats getting hit over the head with the proverbial weather two-by-four that is often the way weather changes are introduced to Minnesotans.

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High pressure gives ground

The lazy ridge of high pressure that's protected Minnesota this week finally shifts east this weekend. That allows a low pressure wave to east in from the west. Look for gradual rise in dew points and humidity, and scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to Minnesota by Friday.

Southwest Minnesota and Iowa are the most favored areas for significant rain into the weekend.

Muggy air oozes back

Dew points in the upper 40s have been delightful this week. You'll notice the gradually more humid air oozing north into Minnesota by the weekend, as dew points climb back into the sticky 60s.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model output below is probably too liberal with the number of thunderstorm symbols this weekend, but a few scattered storms are likely Friday into Saturday.

Sunday is actually trending dry in the latest model runs, then a better chance of rain rolls in late Monday and Tuesday.

Sate Fair heat wave?

The longer range models have placed Minnesota at the northern edge of a building heat dome late next week. The question remains how far north will the heat surge?

The latest Global Forecast System runs seem to suggest 90s will make it into Minnesota for at least part, if not most of opening weekend for the Minnesota State Fair. History would seem to suggest the GFS is right.

Trends also seem to suggest more numerous thunderstorms and rain may return in the next one to two weeks.

Edge of drought

Today's release of the new U.S. Drought Monitor confirms what many in southern Minnesota already know: It's getting dry out there. For the first time in several months, some yellow (abnormally dry) is showing up along the Iowa border near Austin, Minnesota, and Albert Lea, Minnesota.

Rainfall potential over the next seven days looks to favor the half-inch to 1 inch range.

We'll see if a return to wetter conditions materializes as State Fair time rolls around.

Worst weather memory?

What's your worst weather memory? Halloween Mega-Storm? Polar Vortex 2014?

Chances are if you lived anywhere back east, it's a hurricane. Here's a creative look at NOAA hurricane data that shows which hurricane folks back east remember most.