A fine Wednesday, then rain chances increase south

Temperatures settled into the 40s and 50s over most of the state last night, but in the southeast corner of Minnesota readings held close to 60.  Some of the coolest overnight lows include: 39 at Fosston,  with 46 at Park Rapids, Morris, Benson and Case Lake.

Hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic bracket the continental United States this afternoon.  But both hurricanes Marie and Cristobal are forecast to head out into the sea.

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Closer to home, the visible satellite from shortly before 4 p.m. indicated clouds  moving through northern and  central Minnesota. But chances for anything more than sprinkles from the clouds are small.

I was assessing the data from  the computer models to refine the precipitation chances as we move through Wednesday.  The North American Mesocsale Forecast System develops a little short wave or kink in the jet stream late Wednesday night that tracks across eastern Minnesota on Thursday morning.

The upward vertical motion is shown by the purple color on the weather map. Click on map for details.  The snap shot of the mid levels of the atmosphere is valid at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with this agitation in the atmosphere  are expected to dump some copious rain near the Twin Cities.

If the short wave weakens or moves further south, the chance of rain in the Twin Cities fades as well.

The graphical forecast from the Sioux Falls, South Dakota, office of the National Weather Service tells the rainy weather story.

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The National Weather Service precipitation probabilities are high for southeast Minnesota on Thursday.

The rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center from late Wednesday night through 7 p.m. Thursday paints a good chance of a couple of inches of rain in southern Minnesota.

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Northern Minnesota is expected to have a pretty decent day on Thursday with highs in the 70s.