Weather chatter: winter outlook and tropical storms

There has been a blizzard of banter of  late about the Farmer's Almanac winter outlook for 2014/2015.  The claim being that the forecast published in the Almanac last fall was quite accurate with regard to the miserably cold winter in Minnesota.

Last winters outlook from the Farmers Almanac:

Compare their outlook to the one issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center last fall.

I'll not amuse you with a graphic of  the Old Farmer's Almanac's forecast for the summer 0r 2014.  I'll just say their outlook for our neck of the woods was "hot and dry."

Here's the recently released image of the Farmer's Almanac outlook for this winter:

Mind you, don't be confused, there is the Farmers Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac.  I have not seen their winter outlook. I admit that I purchase a copy the Old Farmer's Almanac each autumn.

Just to fuel the discussion, here's the Climate Prediction Center's 90-day temperature outlook for December 2014 to January of 2015 that was issued last week. Click on image.

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I'm a meteorologist by trade. I avoid trying to make predictions beyond five days.  I feel good if I deliver an accurate forecast out 48 hours.

Hurricane Marie is expected to weaken as it churns northwest today.

Here's the National Hurricane Center's latest statement regarding Marie:

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY INTO A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW.

MARIE IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

Hurricane Cristobal is expected to steer well clear of the eastern United States.

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Regarding the rain chances for Thursday, there looks to be a sharp cut-off of the precipitation near the Twin Cities.  Stay tuned.