Stay Curious. Stay Connected.
MailNewsletters♡Donate Now
Sign up
*Password must be at least 8 characters and contain one uppercase letter, one lowercase letter, one number and one symbol.
Already have an account?
By submitting, you consent that you are at least 18 years of age and to receive information about MPR's or APMG entities' programs and offerings. The personally identifying information you provide will not be sold, shared, or used for purposes other than to communicate with you about MPR, APMG entities, and its sponsors. You may opt-out at any time clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of any email communication. View our Privacy Policy.
Sign in to your profile
Forgot Password?
New to MPR News?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Reset Password

Enter the username on file and we'll send you a code to reset your password.

Still require assistance or not sure what your User Name is?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Email Verification

A verification code has been emailed to

Still awaiting the code?
Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Craig Edwards

Delightful afternoon, but changes on the way

Go Deeper.

Create an account or log in to save stories.

Like this?

Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.

Late yesterday afternoon a cluster of light showers formed in western Minnesota.  The light rain expanded east and persisted in the nighttime hours.

Alexandria tallied 0.18 inch, with nearly a quarter inch at Carlos.  A sprinkling even occurred over the Twin Cities metro area.

It was quite cool overnight in far northern Minnesota, where International Falls recorded a low or 35 degrees.  It dipped down to 36 at Crane Lake.

tuesnigtmins
Image:Midwest Regional Climate Center

The mid-afternoon water vapor satellite image showed moisture gathering to our west and south.

Clouds will thicken in southwest Minnesota overnight and in central Minnesota on Thursday morning.  Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to spread east and northeast Thursday morning into east central and southeast Minnesota.

northcentral.wv
Image:NOAA

Twenty-five years ago, the forecast would have called for rain, heavy at times in southeast Minnesota.  The models weren't sophisticated enough, nor the meteorologists daring enough  predict the amount of rain that might fall.

In this era, we boldly try to estimate the general amount of precipitation which may occur during a time period

[image]

Here's the National Weather Service forecast for Rochester, Minnesota on Thursday:

Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 70. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

The computer models have been a bit inconsistent with the location and timing of the heaviest rain in east central Minnesota.

It has been particularly challenging to determine how much rain might fall around the Twin Cities.  The computer models output,  overlaid on this graphic, shows the disparity in timing and the accumulation of rainfall at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

[image]

Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center are consistent in forecasting a couple of inches of rain in southeast Minnesota from 7 p.m. tonight to 7 p.m. Saturday.  Much of the rain is expected to fall from mid morning Thursday to Friday morning.

[image]

Meanwhile, the northern half of the state is looking stay mainly dry on Thursday.

[image]

Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be scattered about the state on Friday.  Saturday looks dry with comfortable temperatures.

[image]