Rain near? Mixed signals continue on where, how much

There are still mixed signals on the rainfall expected over the state today.  You'll want to check your favorite radar app from time to time this afternoon.

The hourly High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model was pretty good on the forecast for the location of rain at 11 a.m.

Here was the earlier forecast this morning from the rapid refresh model for radar reflectivity at 11 a.m.

Taking a look at the high resolution model forecast of the simulated radar at 4 p.m. we see much of the rain remains south and east of the Twin Cities with another area of rain in west central Minnesota.

The enhanced infrared satellite image gives a hint that the precipitation clouds (blue color, colder cloud tops) were tracking more east than north. At the same time it appears that some thinning of the clouds was already taking place in northwest Iowa.

To complicate the rain forecast, the new North American Mesoscale Forecast System model dumps generous rain, nearly an inch, on the Twin Cities this afternoon and evening, while the Global Forecast System model continues to split the rain areas to the southeast and northwest of the Twin Cities.

Note the much lighter amount of precipitation expected in east central Minnesota.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues into Friday.

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