Unsettled weather today and again later on Sunday

While some parts of Minnesota have received more than their share of rain in July and August, the core of the Twin Cities metro area has been missed frequently. I had measured just one inch of rain in my back yard in Minneapolis this month up until the thunderstorm that woke me at 3 a.m. this morning.

Today there have been numerous showers and thunderstorms around the state, especially in the south, central and eastern sections. Some of the storms have dropped very heavy rain. While the weather situation is not particularly conducive to severe storms, weak funnel clouds have been reported in southwestern Minnesota, including Renville and Redwood Counties. These funnels usually do not touch down, but shelter should be taken if a funnel lowers toward the ground. And there have been strong to severe storms in southeastern Minnesota late this afternoon

The lightning display from mid-afternoon locates some of the stronger storms. Also note the numerous storms over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

Storms will continue to track northeast across Minnesota before weakening later this evening.

Saturday will bring some relief from the muggy dew points that climbed into the upper 60s in some areas on Friday. Here is the dew point forecast for a few spots at 2 p.m. on Saturday.

In fact, Saturday looks like a pleasant day with highs in the 70s just about statewide and maybe a chance of a few isolated showers in eastern Minnesota later in the day.

Sunday will be a warmer and much trickier day. High temperatures will warm into the mid-70s to mid-80s. Some moisture will return to push the dew point up a bit.

And then there is the matter of a low pressure system now in the Gulf of Alaska.

That low will approach Minnesota from the Dakotas on Sunday. Although much of Sunday will have fair weather for most of us, expect showers and thunderstorms to intensify from west to east across the state, mainly during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of an advancing cold front. Severe weather is possible later on Sunday in the shaded slight risk area shown below. For the metro area, the most likely window for severe weather will be in the evening after about 7 p.m.

Some storms could linger well into Sunday night, especially in southeastern Minnesota. Some forecast models are pointing to the possibility of an axis of heavy rainfall in excess of an inch and a half from near the Twin Cities to Duluth and the Iron Range, from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Then cooler, much drier air will sweep in from the northwest for Monday. That will bring us falling dew points and a most pleasant day to close out the State Fair.