September warmth, Odile soaks Desert Southwest

Our weather winning streak continues across Minnesota this week.

It seems we've had half a summer this year in Minnesota. The last half of September may give us back some of what we missed this summer. Just when you think Minnesota weather is ready to shut the front door on summer, the good graces of southerly flow return this week. Funny how weather has a sometimes merciful way of evening things out.

We've certainly earned a late September warm spell this year.

[image]

Our warming trend this week pushes temperatures back into the 70s again. The next low pressure wave rides in Friday, and brings chances for scattered rain and thunder again into Saturday morning.

Fall colors exploding up north

The most predictable of Minnesota weather-related events? The annual explosion of fall color from north to south during mid-September. Here's the latest color map from the Minnesota DNR, which shows pockets of 25 percent to 50 percent color up north now.

Warm September swan song this year?

Maybe.

The US long range models appear to be hinting at a warmer than average close to September this year. The Global Forecast System has been consistent for a couple of days now in building an amplified ridge of warm high pressure over the Rockies and into Minnesota by late next week.

If the GFS pattern verifies, temperatures should remain well above average next week in the Pacific Northwest, Rockies and as far east as Minnesota.

That would be good enough to produce a string of days in at least the mid-70s for Minnesota.

The Euro model is not as bullish on warmth next week, so stay tuned...next week could be a changeable forecast.

Stay tuned as the GFS and Euro battle for weather supremacy next week.

Odile: Flash flood threat for Arizona and the Desert Southwest

Tropical Storm Odile is making a beeline for southern Arizona. Here's a shot of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite infrared floater as the storm moves northward up the Gulf of California. Note the deep red spiral heavy rain bands moving into southern Arizona.

All indications are the track for Odile will favor heaviest rainfall in southeast Arizona, including the Tucson area.

Here's a busy but information-packed weather story from the Tucson National Weather Service.

The next 48 hours will deliver some serious multi-inch totals for southern Arizona. Flash flood watches cover much of the Desert Southwest from Las Vegas to New Mexico.

The rain from Odile will be a blessing to the drought stricken region -- to a point. Once several inches fall, the flash flood threats could outweigh the benefits in many areas. But many in the parched southwest will take the rain at this point.

Stay tuned.