Best fall color in years? Whispers of El Nino

The last weekend in September is traditionally one of the best for ripening fall colors in northern and central Minnesota. This year looks no different as colors explode in northern Minnesota this weekend.

This year abundant spring and early summer rainfall, and warm dry late summer weather may be setting the stage for one of the finest fall color displays in years.

Check out the tone of the early reports by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources from Itasca State park near Bemidji.

Stunning colors in the understory as the Red and Sugar maples and Paper birch begin to fire off their brilliant fall colors as they move towards peak. The effects of warm, dry, sunny days and cool nights are creating brilliant colors this fall.

Trees: Brilliant bursts of red and orange-yellow are visible in the tree tops as the Red and Sugar maples begin to reach peak color. These pockets of red are visible across park lakes and ponds. 

Here's the scene from one of my favorite Minnesota parks, Bear Head State Park about 15 miles west of Ely.

MAPLES ARE AT PEAK! DONT MISS IT! Red, yellow, and orange maple leaves and golden pine needles are quickly carpeting the forest floor. The campground is the most brilliant it has been since last autumn with the yellow hazel brush understory and beautiful maples.

I find the fall colors are beautiful in Minnesota every year. This year's early reports from up north and my observations from around the metro seem to indicate this may be one of the best fall color displays in years. Our combination of warm dry sunny days and cool nights may be setting the stage for an especially brilliant show this year.

Get out there!

Hints of emerging El Nino?

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies seem to show a more consistent El Nino ribbon forming in the past two weeks in the tropical Pacific, with an expanding warm bubble in the western Pacific.

This may be borderline premature, but I'm starting to see atmospheric patterns over North America that resemble El Nino years.

A 'split flow' jet stream pattern maybe developing, with the Polar Front Jet unusually far north into Canada for late September. This is a telltale El Nino pattern, and may (or may not) be a precursor to a developing El Nino. But it's worth watching to see how the autumn jet stream patterns evolve as we head for October.

If this type of split flow develops, it could be good news with precious rains for drought stricken fire ravaged California, and bring milder than average fall weather to Minnesota.

Stay tuned.

Meanwhile back at the ranch...

Our stunningly beautiful late summer weather continues this weekend.

Enjoy!

Finally today, I hope you'll be able to join us at the University of Minnesota on Oct. 7 to hear New York Times science writer Andrew Revkin at the annual Kuehnast Lecture. Here's more from Professor Mark Seeley:

Topic: 22nd Annual Kuehnast Lecture on October 7th

The Annual Kuhenast Lecture in Atmospheric and Climate Science is scheduled for October 7th, 3 p.m. at the St. Paul Campus Student Center theater.  The 22nd Annual Kuehnast Lecture will feature author, musician, and award-winning journalist Andrew Revkin of The New York Times and Pace University. Revkin is known widely as the founder of the Dot Earth blog. His lecture, "The New Communication Climate," will explore issues and opportunities arising as both the environment and the news media experience an era of unprecedented and unpredictable change. Refreshments will follow the program.