NOAA Winter Outlook: Partly mild for Minnesota?

• 72 degrees high at Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport Thursday at 1:49pm

• Warmest day of October 2014

• First 70 degree reading at MSP this October

• 5 number of years without a 70 degree temp in the metro in October since 1872

Indian Summer Part 1

Well, wasn't that special?

Our first bite of Indian Summer 2014 peaked Thursday with a brilliant blue sky, temps in the 70s over southern Minnesota and 60s up north. The "thermal ridge" or axis of warmest air set up shop right over Minnesota Thursday as expected.

"Peak" fall color

I'm calling it in the Weather lab. Thursday was the official, unofficial fall color peak in the Twin Cities. The brilliant maples are simply stunning around the metro. Throw in a 70 degree day and that's as good as it gets this fall for leaf peepers.

Back to October reality

Air masses this mild usually aren't long for Minnesota in October. The next window-rattling cold front blows in on gusty northwest winds by Friday morning. You'll feel the chill in the air, as temps will be a good 15 to 20 degrees cooler. The next cool Canadian high pressure cell builds over Minnesota this weekend.

The weekend looks placid but cool. Temps begin to rebound a bit by Sunday and may approach 60 degrees again in the Twin Cities. Our super-sized late fall of 2014 continues next week. Temperatures push back into the 60s, and another shot at 70 degrees is possible.

NOAA: Partly mild this winter?

NOAA's Winter Outlook is in for the coming season. The odds still favor a developing El Nino, but NOAA is pulling its punches on fully committing to a mild winter for the Upper Midwest. The northern half of Minnesota is in the zone most favored to be mild according to NOAA, with southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities in the "equal chances" zone of a milder or colder winter.

NOAA is still watching, and waiting for the long-predicted El Nino to develop in the tropical Pacific.

El Niño, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific that affects global weather patterns, may still develop this winter. Climate Prediction Center forecasters announced on Oct. 9 that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year. While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into California over the winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little help.

As for snowfall, NOAA is noncommittal about above or below average snow for most of Minnesota, but favors a drier than average winter for the Great Lakes.

Snowfall trends?

As for snowfall, NOAA is noncommittal on whether we will see above or below average snowfall over most of Minnesota. The trend favors a drier than average winter in the Great Lakes.

Hopes for a drought busting winter in California seem slim, but NOAA does expect some increase in rainfall.

While drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter, California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering from exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the driest year on record. Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of California’s warmest years on record, and 2014 is shaping up to be California’s warmest year on record. Winter is the wet season in California, so mountainous snowfall will prove crucial for drought recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s southern and northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until December or January.

“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely. While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This outlook gives the public valuable information, allowing them to make informed decisions and plans for the season. It's an important tool as we build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

I am inclined to agree with the overall assessment that this winter's forecast will be a tough one with few clear signals. As usual, for better or worse, I will look deep into the Weather Lab crystal ball and come up with my winter outlook in the first days of November.

Stay tuned.