Winter Storm Watch: Growing chance of first big snow Monday

Here we go Minnesota! It's baaaaack.

As expected, The Twin Cities NWS posted the first Winter Storm Watch of the season Saturday afternoon.

Confidence is still low on the precise storm track and location of the heaviest snowfall bands, but there is a growing chance for the first major winter storm of the season in the southern half of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

Model forecast runs have continued to show the northward shift toward the metro in storm tracks that started yesterday. There is still some spread in where the heaviest snow bands may set up, so location fo the heaviest bands is still in question at this point. I want to see tonight's 0z model runs that roll in between 8 pm and 11 pm to look for (hopeful) continuity.

That said, here are some headlines and trends at this point.

• Winter Storm Watch includes basically the southern half of Minnesota Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

• A band of light snow Saturday night may produce a snowy coating, but is not the main storm.

• The main storm spreads snow from west to east across Minnesota Sunday night.

• Snow likely begins in the Twin Cities late Sunday night in the hours surrounding midnight.

• Snowfall peaks Monday.

• Both AM & PM rush hours will likely be affected Monday, snow covered and slippery.

• Overall storm snowfall totals of 6" to 12"+ are looking more likely, but the precise location of that band is still in question.

• The precise storm track is still shifting on some models, and that will determine location of heavier snow bands.

Here's a look at the latest storm track trends. Most of the models agree with the depiction below that the heavy snow zone will favor the southern half of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

Here's the Twin Cities NWS watch text. I'm not ready to pull the trigger on 8" to 12" just yet for the metro, but that scenario is becoming more likely by the hour.

243 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL START LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 TO 12 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL.

The models are cranking out some impressive snowfall totals for the Twin Cities with this storm. I want to see tonight's model runs as the storm comes ashore along the west coast, but the idea of the heavy snow band producing 6" to 12"+ somewhere close to the metro seems reasonable at this point.

Bottom Line: The season's first major winter storm is likely in the southern half of Minnesota Monday. Prepare now for the possibility of heavy snow all day Monday and for travel impacts and both rush hours to be snow covered and slick Monday. Much colder air will follow the storm next week.

I will post comments on model updates in the comments section below. Let's keep the forecast discussion  going...what do you think eventual snowfall totals will be? What trends are you seeing in the latest model runs?

Buckle up!